A Message To Those Who Still Support The 21 Drinking Age And Other Ageist Policies

Here's a message to those who still support the 21 drinking age and other ageist policies:

(Mic drop)

Ding Dong, The Troll Is Dead!

We at Twenty-One Debunked would like to announce some news.  We have just learned belatedly that a certain pro-21 troll who would come onto our blog from time to time has finally passed away, as of November 18, 2024.  His name was Randall "Randy" Kovar, along with a number of silly aliases that he would use to relentlessly troll us with.  We were wondering why he hasn't been trolling for the past two years or so, and now we know why.  

So pop the champagne, everyone! 

And make the following toast:

"Ding dong, the troll is dead!"

And finally:

May his name and memory be forever blotted out.

Young People Have Too LITTLE Personal Autonomy, Actually

With the Epstein scandal now finally in the foreground at long last, many people are wondering how the hell were these atrocities allowed to happen for so long?  There are a number of reasons, of course, but the two biggest ones are 1) power of the perperators, and 2) lack of personal autonomy of the victims. 

The first is painfully obvious, as power lets perpetrators get away with far more than they would have without such power.  And of course, they are surrounded with rape apologists, enablers, and guilty bystanders as well.  Natch.  But denying young people autonomy and civil rights in the name of "protecting" them also not only fails to really protect them from predators, but actually puts them at greater risk.  As a very different Dr. Robert Epstein (no relation!) has famously noted, teens have fewer rights than convicted felons, and in fact have ten times more restrictions.

True, it is very nuanced, and the correlation is probably NOT linear or even monotonic.  Sometimes, a supposed "middle ground" is in fact the most dangerous place of all.  Recall the "most murder in the middle" theory, where the midpoint (known as anocracy or semi-democracy) in the transition between full democracy and full autocracy is in fact the most violent of all.  A similar analogy likely holds here as well, as in the abysmal status quo where young people are granted JUST barely enough agency to be blamed, shamed, and gaslighted for being victimized, but not nearly enough agency to actually empower them.  And the solution is NOT to take more rights and autonomy from young people, but rather to give them MORE rights and autonomy.  And of course, we must actually hold the perpetrators fully accountable regardless of their wealth, power, and social status.

So what are we waiting for?

P.S. And let's not forget to "thank" the peddlers of the previous moral panics from the Satanic Panic all the way to Pizzagate and QAnon, for crying "WOLF" so many times, that now that the wolf actually IS at the door, people are hesitant to believe it now.

(Mic drop)

Never Ask Meme (Re-Post)

There is a good meme that I found recently on Reddit about the, shall we say, shadow side of so many famous and otherwise "great" philosophers throughout recorded history:

And to that, we would like to add the following:

Never ask 57% of Michiganders, what they voted for in November 1978.  

(Hint:  it set into motion a sweeping national trend since then, a very dubious, toxic, illiberal, and ageist trend that might not otherwise have occurred, and without it, the USA would have most likely been more like Canada in that regard.  Seriously.  The agony of regret indeed....)

The Law of Eristic Escalation Revisited (Re-Post)

Or, "Politics In One Lesson"

Happy New Year, everyone!  Just thought we should share this re-post of a very timeless article that remains just as relevant now.

There is an eternal law of nature that at once explains just about everything, and even makes politics possible to finally understand. It is called The Law of Eristic Escalation:

Imposition of Order = Escalation of Chaos

By that, it pertains to any arbitrary or coercive imposition of order, which at least in the long run, actually causes disorder (chaos) to escalate.  Fenderson's Amendment further adds that "the tighter the order in question is maintained, the longer the consequent chaos takes to escalate, BUT the more it does when it does."  Finally, the Thudthwacker Addendum still further adds that this relationship is nonlinear, thus rendering the resulting escalation of chaos completely unpredictable in terms of the original imposition of order.

We see the real world consequences of this in everything from Prohibition to the War on (people who use a few particular) Drugs to zero tolerance policies to Covid lockdowns to sexual repression and so much more.  And, of course, especially in the ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age.  Any short-term benefits that these arbitrary and coercive impositions of order may provide is entirely outweighed when they inevitably backfire in the long run.  Miron and Tetelbaum (2009), Asch and Levy (1987 and 1990), and Males (1986), etc. illustrate this very nicely in the case of the 21 drinking age.

Perhaps that is why most bans on various things have historically had a track record that is quite lackluster at best.  Ironically, bans tend to give more power to the very things that they seek to ban.

And now, ladies and gentlemen, you finally understand politics.

P.S.  The Dutch seem to understand this better.  They even have a proverb:  "when you permit, you control", which is the antithesis of the American proverb, "when you permit, you promote".  Carl Jung would also likely have a field day with that as well.

Have A Safe And Happy Holiday Season

(This is a public service announcement)

It is that time of year again when the holidays are upon us, and many of us Americans (and around the world) will be celebrating with alcohol and/or other substances, pretty much back to normal now.  We at Twenty-One Debunked would like to remind everyone to be safe and celebrate responsibly.  There is absolutely no excuse for drunk driving at any age, period.  We cannot stress this enough.  It's very simple--if you plan to drive, don't drink, and if you plan to drink, don't drive.  It's really not rocket science, folks.  And there are numerous ways to avoid mixing the two.  Designate a sober driver, take a cab, use public transportation, crash on the couch, or even walk if you have to.  Or stay home and celebrate there.  Or simply don't drink--nobody's got a gun to your head.  Seriously, don't be stupid about it!  And the same goes for other psychoactive substances as well, and a fortiori when combined with alcohol.

ARRIVE ALIVE, DON'T DRINK AND DRIVE!!!   If you plan to drink, don't forget to think!  The life you save may very well be your own.

When Cannabis Advances, Alcohol Retreats (Again)

Yet another study adds to the growing body of evidence that cannabis and alcohol are at least partial substitutes.  When cannabis advances, alcohol tends to retreat, as seen in many studies.  That seems to be true both in Canada (18 or 19 depending on the province for both, except 21 in Quebec), and in the USA (21 for both, and cannabis legal only in some states).

Australia Has Fallen (Part Deux)

Australia' broadstroke social media ban for people under 16 that was passed last year is set to fully go into effect just days from now on December 10th.  That makes Australia the strictest country in the world in that regard (though a few other countries are moving towards something similar).  And Big Tech said they will comply with it.  Much like how Big Tobacco and Big Vape ultimately cynically supported the 21 smoking/vaping age here.

We at Twenty-One Debunked have already discussed why we oppose such a ban:  it is overbroad, throws the proverbial baby out with the bathwater, the mandatory age verification would create a privacy and cybersecurity nightmare for all ages, violates free speech, and last but not least, blatantly violates youth rights.  And on balance, we believe it does far more harm than good.

Yes, we are well aware that social media does have a dark side, for all ages, and that it needs much better guardrails.  But this age ban is both over- and under-inclusive, and thus utterly fails to accomplish the stated objectives.  Rather, we believe that (as the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) advocates), comprehensive data privacy legislation for all ages, that would ban the practice of surveillance advertising, would be a far better idea to do before anything else.  Then improve the safety features/defaults of these platforms, and if we still want something more age-specific, perhaps have something like New York's SAFE For Kids Act and the New York Child Data Protection Act.  In fact, New York even has a bill that has yet to become law, the SAFE For All Act, which would go a LONG way to making these platforms much safer and less addictive for all ages, and we fully support that 100%.

(The SAFE For Kids Act does have some flavor of age verification, but it narrowly targets only two very specific features of social media platforms:  1) Personalized algorithmic feeds (aka "addictive feeds"), and 2) Late night notifications (12 am to 6 am).  These relatively useless and harmful features are disabled by default, and only to enable them would one need to verify age.)

But an Australian-style age ban?  HELL NO!  The same also goes for the creeping censorship of the UK currently (and soon eventually Australia as well, with the way things are going now).

And Big Tech can go EFF off!

(Mic drop)

UPDATE:  Amnesty International opposes the Australian social media age ban as well.  They have consistently been on the right side of history.  And the EFF also wrote another great article too, about the hidden dangers of mandatory age verification online.

And now over to you, Brazil.  It is the height of chutzpah and hubris for President Lula to implement mandatory age verification for social media in his country, especially given how it was 16 and 17 year voters who made his election win possible (the voting age is 16 in Brazil).  And they even have the GALL to package it all in patronizing and paternalistic Orwellian "children's rights" language.  Natch.  The next domino to fall.

It Was 40 Years Ago Today

It was 40 years ago today, the last day in history that young New Yorkers could legally drink before 21.  The drinking age in my home state of New York, originally 18 for nearly half a century, was raised first to 19, effective December 4, 1982, and three years later raised to 21, effective December 1, 1985.  Just in time for the holiday season.  And with no grandfather clause either.

New York, due to their sheer size and clout on the national stage, was essentially the last real hope for bucking the trend and opposing federal coercion to raise the drinking age to 21.  And, alas, they too drank the Kool-Aid as well.  As did the other last real hope, Florida, the following year as well, albeit with a grandfather clause.  Without those two anchor states, the remaining holdouts didn't stand a chance against the feds, and the rest is history.....

Note that the iconic 1985 hit song "You Belong To The City" by Glenn Frey (RIP), is now officially 40 years old as well.  It came out in September 1985, three months earlier, and was famously used in the TV show Miami Vice.  An excellent song and video, filmed in and taking place in New York City, very nostalgic indeed.

Have A Safe And Happy Thanksgiving And Thanksgiving Eve

(This is a public service announcement)

It is that time of year again when Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving Eve (Blackout Wednesday) is upon us, and many of us Americans will be celebrating with alcohol and/or other substances, pretty much back to normal now.  We at Twenty-One Debunked would like to remind everyone to be safe and celebrate responsibly.  There is absolutely no excuse for drunk driving at any age, period.  We cannot stress this enough.  It's very simple--if you plan to drive, don't drink, and if you plan to drink, don't drive.  It's really not rocket science, folks.  And there are numerous ways to avoid mixing the two.  Designate a sober driver, take a cab, use public transportation, crash on the couch, or even walk if you have to.  Or stay home and celebrate there.  Or simply don't drink--nobody's got a gun to your head.  Seriously, don't be stupid about it!  And the same goes for other psychoactive substances as well, and a fortiori when combined with alcohol.

ARRIVE ALIVE, DON'T DRINK AND DRIVE!!!   If you plan to drink, don't forget to think!  The life you save may very well be your own.

Alberta Gets It Right (Re-Post)

The Canadian province of Alberta is basically the only place in all of North America that gets it right across the board.  Legal age limits there are as follows:

• Alcohol:  18
• Tobacco and Vaping:  18
• Cannabis:  18
• Gambling:  18
• Guns:  18
• Voting:  18
• Run for office:  18
• General age of majority:  18
• School leaving age:  16
• Driving:  14 for learner permit, 16 for GDL, and 18 for full unrestricted license
• All other age limits:  similar to the rest of Canada and the USA overall (at or below 18)
• Curfew:  None at provincial level, only locally in a few towns here and there (usually 15)

In other words, 18 is the age of majority, and once you are an adult, you are an adult.  Period, full stop.  Some age limits can be lower than that, of course, as there is much room for nuance, but no age limit can ever be higher than that, at least not without extraordinary levels of justification.  And guess what?  The sky didn't fall in Alberta.  No seriously, it really didn't.  Alberta still has yet to get the memo about the supposedly catastrophic effects of full adult rights combined with "underdeveloped" 18-24 year old brains.

In fact, the Alberta Human Rights Act explicitly prohibits age discrimination for anyone over 18, except for senior citizen privileges for people over 55.  Anything else requires truly extraordinary justification, which in practice is about as rare as a unicorn. 

That is really how it should be everywhere, regardless of what exact age limit is chosen for age of majority (which is 18 in most of the world and most of the USA).  It's really not a difficult concept to grasp, as a child can easily understand it, but too many chronological "adults" seem to be unable to do so.  Anything else is a slippery slope, and such slopes are much, much slipperier than they appear.

And for alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis, while underage possession and consumption is illegal, for all three it is basically a mere ticket-level offense with no criminal record.  Unlike many US states have.  And parents are allowed to give their own underage children (but no one else) alcohol at home (within reason), as many but not all states currently do.

The driving thing is of course probably the most jarring one of all to the rest of the world, so allow us to explain.  The global outlier young age limit of 14, rivaled only by South Dakota and a few other rural states, applies ONLY to the learner permit, which is similar to an American style learner permit, with only supervised driving allowed among other restrictions.  To get a GDL (probationary) license, i.e. what Americans often call a "junior" license, you need to be at least 16 and also have had a permit for one year or more, and pass the basic road test which is harder than an American road test.  There are some restrictions to the GDL, such as no more passengers than there are seat belts, and a zero tolerance limit for both alcohol and cannabis, but no night restrictions.  And to graduate to the next level, the full unrestricted license, one must have had the GDL for at least two years regardless of age, be suspension-free for the final year of two years, and pass an advanced road test, the latter of which has since been phased out in 2023 in favor of simply making the basic road test more difficult and more like the advanced road test.  Honestly, making the American road test more difficult would probably be far more effective than any age-based restrictions ever could be.

Alberta in recent years has had one of the lowest overall traffic death rates per vehicle kilometers traveled in Canada, and lower than the USA, so they must be doing something right!

And DUI laws are quite strict there regardless of age as well.  There are swift and certain penalties of immediate but temporary administrative license suspension and vehicle impoundment for BAC as low as 0.05% (or 0.00% if GDL), in addition to any criminal penalties if above 0.08% and/or obviously impaired.  Note that the zero tolerance for GDL is regardless of age.  For DUI cannabis they are also quite strict as well, and we at Twenty-One Debunked think TOO strict since hard per se limits (let alone zero tolerance) don't really make sense for a substance with such complex pharmacokinetics and long detection times, and generally less impairing than alcohol.  At the very least, in the interest of simple justice, they really need to set the testing cutoff for positivity high enough to prevent false positives or innocent positives. 

Thus overall, Alberta is a good model for America to follow.  So what are we waiting for?

Oh, and they also have the best and largest shopping mall in the entire western hemisphere, the West Edmonton Mall.  It makes the even the vaunted Mall of America look a bit "meh" by comparison. 

How America Lost The Plot (Repost)

From the ageist and illiberal abomination that is the 21 drinking age and especially its authoritarian enforcement, to drunk driving, to drug policy, to transportation policy, to environmental policy, to foreign policy, to Tobacco 21, and so on, America has well and truly lost the plot long ago on so many issues.  How long ago, you may ask?  Well, roughly 40 years ago, if not even a bit earlier than that.  But how and why did it happen in the first place?  Why can't our "leaders" (and many of those who keep voting for them) ever seem to see the forest for the trees?

In the book, The Master and His Emissary:  The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World by Iain McGilchrist (2009), the author delves into the familiar idea of the left vs right hemispheres of the brain.  Only unlike the usual surface-level analysis in that we see in pop neuroscience, this one is a real deep dive into the truly resounding implications of these brain differences for society and civilization.  Ten years later, it was even made into a documentary, The Divided Brain (2019), by McGilchrist himself along with award-winning documentary filmmaker Vanessa Dylyn, et al.

To summarize:  the two hemispheres of the brain each see the world and process information in fundamentally different ways:  the left brain is more reductionistic in thinking, while the right is more holistic in thinking.  The left is more logical, analytical and detail-oriented, while the right is more creative, intuitive, and sees the bigger picture.  The left is more linear, while the right is more non-linear.  The left sees the map, while the right sees the territory.  And so on.  While both sides are of course quite valuable and necessary, the brain functions best overall when the right brain is in charge.  The left is a great servant, but a terrible master, hence the title of the book.  And Western culture has, for thousands of years, oscillated between favoring the overall relative dominance of each of the two hemispheres.  In recent centuries and decades, as in some other historical periods as well, we have become far too left-brain dominant, with very negative consequences, according to the author.  Not only does the left not really know what the right is doing, but at least half the time the left doesn't even know what the left is doing!  The left brain has thus essentially hijacked society, and that in turn leaves us "increasingly incapable of grappling with critical economic, environmental, and social issues, ones that shape our very future as a species", as the documentary would put it.  I am largely oversimplifying what he said, of course, but that is the basic gist of it overall.

One obvious reason for this excessive left-brain dominance could be due to poorly-designed education, of course.  But another could be that the left brain is faster in terms of processing speed than the right, and the pace of life is undoubtedly much, much faster nowadays than even the recent past.  Though the latter would be more of a chicken-or-the egg question. 

(And to all of the political conservatives and reactionaries who try in vain to shoehorn all of this into their silly left-wing vs right-wing political spectrum, like that one guy on The Daily Sceptic did recently, please get your own ideas.  This book, by a renowned Oxford scholar, truly thoroughly transcends such a naive interpretation of politics.)

A-ha!  That really explains a LOT!

Clearly, the USA (and a good chunk of the world as well, but especially the USA), has only gotten more, not less, left-brain dominant since roughly 40 years ago.  We as a society have been reactively lurching from crisis to crisis, moral panic to moral panic, trend to trend, fad to fad, idol to idol, and propaganda to propaganda, throwing at each whatever left-brained nostrums seem like a good idea at the time without really thinking it through.  But try as they may, the map is NOT the territory.  And their reductionist "solutions" invariably affect not just this thing over here, but also that thing over there, and that other thing all the way over there, and so on.  Oops!

One thing's for sure:  As the late, great Buckminster Fuller famously said, you cannot solve a problem with the same kind of thinking that got us into that problem in the first place.  Unfortunately, not nearly enough people have gotten the memo, it seems.

UPDATE:  Looks like McGilchrist has a sequel to the aforementioned book, titled The Matter with Things, as well.  In it, the following quote is probably the most pertinent:

"[Y]ou could say, to sum up a vastly complex matter in a phrase, that the brain's left hemisphere is designed to help us ap-prehend – and thus manipulate – the world; the right hemisphere to com-prehend it – see it all for what it is."

Food for thought. 

A brain divided against itself cannot stand.

The ONE Thing We Agree With The Late Charlie Kirk On

There is indeed ONE thing we fully agree with the late Charlie Kirk on.  Care to guess what it is?

(Hint:  it is quite literally the very founding cornerstone of Twenty-One Debunked indeed.)

Give up?  

Well, the following tweet from him from 2018 says it all:

AMEN to that!  And we are not aware that he has ever officially reversed or repudiated that stance, even after he recently quit drinking completely himself.

A stopped clock can indeed be right twice a day.

Actually, there is one more thing we agree with him on as well:

For the EPSTEINTH time, RELEASE THE FILES!

(Mic drop)

Never Ask Meme

There is a good meme that I found recently on Reddit about the, shall we say, shadow side of so many famous and otherwise "great" philosophers throughout recorded history:

And to that, we would like to add the following:

Never ask 57% of Michiganders, what they voted for in November 1978.  

(Hint:  it set into motion a sweeping national trend since then, a very dubious, toxic, illiberal, and ageist trend that might not otherwise have occurred, and without it, the USA would have most likely been more like Canada in that regard.  Seriously.  The agony of regret indeed....)

"You Belong To The City" by Glenn Frey, 40 Years Later

The iconic 1985 hit song "You Belong To The City" by Glenn Frey (RIP), is now officially 40 years old.  It came out in September 1985, and was famously used in the TV show Miami Vice.  An excellent song and video, filmed in and taking place in New York City, very nostalgic indeed.

Note that this was literally less than three months before my home state of New York raised the drinking age to 21.  

A Message To Those Who Still Support The 21 Drinking Age And Other Ageist Policies

Here's a message to those who still support the 21 drinking age and other ageist policies:

(Mic drop)

What If We Have Gotten "Age At First Use" All Wrong?

What if we (as a society) have gotten "age at first use" all wrong in regards to addiction?  The conventional wisdom is that the younger a person is when first trying a given substance (whether it's alcohol, tobacco/nicotine, cannabis, or otherwise), the more likely that person is to become addicted or dependent on that substance, and the more severe the problem they will develop, all else being equal.  This idea is often paired with the controversial (and half-baked at best) "gateway drug theory", namely that the use of lesser substances (alcohol, tobacco, and especially cannabis) increases the risk for subsequent use and/or addiction to other, harder substances.  But while the "gateway theory" is relatively easy to debunk, the "age at first use" theory has had much more staying power to date, mainly due to the fairly strong, and seemingly rugged and robust, correlational evidence, often combined with relatively superficial knowledge of human brain development.

However, a new study (albeit not exactly a new idea) strongly implies that at least much of the observed association between earlier age at first use and greater likelihood of addiction is actually due to reverse causation.  That is, kids who were at greater risk of addiction actually showed measurable brain differences compared to those who weren't, even before they took their first sip or puff.  This is truly a paradigm-shifting study indeed, and one that will require everyone to fundamentally rethink their approaches to substance abuse prevention.

That is NOT to say that using substances at an early age (especially before 15) is actually a wise idea, of course.  It still appears to be at least somewhat riskier overall, and the results of twin studies (which completely control for genetics, and largely control for environment) of the past still have yet to be completely explained away.  (For the record, Twenty-One Debunked does NOT endorse or encourage the underage use of any such substances.)  But this latest study shows that the reality is far more nuanced than meets the eye, and that "delay, delay, delay that first drink or use at any cost!" is also probably not the wisest approach to prevention either.  And, of course, by implication, the 21 drinking age (and smoking age and toking age) now has even less support still from The Science.

(We should also note also that people who actually do wait until 21 or older to use such substances, especially alcohol, tend not to be very gung-ho about such substances to begin with, and thus tend to be non-drinkers, non-smokers, and non-users.  That is true for both age at first use, as well as age at first regular use.  It's basically tautological.)

Perhaps this why Denmark and Iceland, who each famously take diametrically opposite approaches to teen drinking (i.e. very permissive vs. very restrictive, respectively), still ultimately end up with remarkably similar alcoholism rates among adults.  Just like the USA vs Canada, basically.

Supreme Court Upholds Age Verification For Adult Sites

Among other terrible rulings yesterday, the increasingly reactionary Supreme Court of the United States upheld Texas' age verification laws for porn sites (and by extension, by several other states with similar laws as well).  As the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) reports:

Today’s decision in Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton is a direct blow to the free speech rights of adults. The Court ruled that “no person—adult or child—has a First Amendment right to access speech that is obscene to minors without first submitting proof of age.” This ruling allows states to enact onerous age-verification rules that will block adults from accessing lawful speech, curtail their ability to be anonymous, and jeopardize their data security and privacy. These are real and immense burdens on adults, and the Court was wrong to ignore them in upholding Texas’ law.  

Of course, this ruling is relatively narrow, at least for now:

Importantly, the Court's reasoning applies only to age-verification rules for certain sexual material, and not to age limits in general. We will continue to fight against age restrictions on online access more broadly, such as on social media and specific online features.  

But it still sets a very questionable precedent at best, and we know that it won't stop there without a fight.  Twenty-One Debunked of course vehemently opposes the use of mandatory age verification in general (including, but not limited to, social media platforms) on First Amendment grounds, youth rights grounds, and cybersecurity grounds as well.  Stay tuned, because this fight is NOT over!

Conscription: The Machiavellian Solution In Search Of A Problem (And Why It Will NOT Help The Youth Rights Movement)

With World War III looking more and more likely on the horizon each day that goes by due to current events, it is only a matter of time before one of the biggest American taboos returns to the forefront.  The specter of bringing back the military draft (conscription) has been raised occasionally since it was last abolished in 1973, but it never seemed to catch on since then for a number of reasons:  1) it was unnecessary and redundant with today's technology, 2) it would mess up and dilute the increasingly professional all-volunteer military, 3) most Americans don't support such a policy.  And that's to say nothing of the collective trauma from the ill-fated Vietnam War that has lingered ever since to one degree or another.  

And there are also the fundamental philosophical-ethical arguments against conscription as well, of course, including Immanuel Kant's categorical imperative:  "Always treat humanity as an end itself, and never solely as a means".  And predictably, Niccolo "ends justify the means" Machiavelli himself, often seen as Kant's philosophical foil, was a huge fan of conscription, as he felt that mercenaries would be untrustworthy in terms of loyalty (gotta love that false binary there with no room for nuance whatsoever).  

But every so often, the old zombie arguments (often in superficial shiny new drag) in favor of bringing back the draft resurface like a bad case of herpes.  They can be grouped into the following:  1) Necessity, 2) Equality/Equity, and 3) Social Engineering.  And here we will not only debunk them, but also debone, slice, dice, julienne, and ultimately lay waste to their scorched remains.

The "necessity" argument is probably the only good and coherent argument strong enough to justify the forcible confiscation of labor services (i.e. slavery, which is what conscription really is) of innocent erstwhile civilians in an otherwise free society worthy of the name.  That is, if the necessity in question is actually true.  Spoiler alert:  for most wars throughout history, to say nothing of peacetime, that was not really true.  That is because a) most wars throughout history were unnecessary wars of choice that could have been avoided, and thus inherently wrong except on the side legitimately defending itself, b) there are almost always alternatives to conscription even if a war is necessary, such as (gasp!) paying our troops more, rather than forcibly doing it on the cheap, and c) a country that needs a draft to defend itself deserves to lose.  (And being the world's de facto police force is really NOT a war of necessity, by the way.)  And all of these apply a fortiori with today's technology, which reduces the need for the large numbers of troops in the wars of the more distant past.

(And any fair-weather "allies" halfway around the world who are unwilling or unable to defend themselves without forcing Americans to fight their battles for them, also deserve to lose by the way, a fortiori.)

Indeed, in a truly "just war" that meets all of St. Augustine's criteria (which, let's face it, is about as rare as a unicorn!), conscription would be unnecessary and redundant, since volunteers would be plentiful, at least for a while. 

Of course, to be fair, given a large enough scale AND a long enough duration of a war that really is NOT a war of choice and absolutely can't be pulled out of, the necessity argument CAN perhaps become valid in those select cases.  World War II and the American Civil War are textbook examples of such from history.  (Ditto for, God forbid, World War III, assuming it isn't largely an air and nuclear war, which would supersede this argument, albeit in a bad way).  But these "edge cases" are the exceptions that prove the rule.

Then comes the "equality" or "equity" argument, sometimes called the "poverty draft" or "skin in the game".  That is, poor and working class people (who often join at least partly for economic reasons) are disproportionately overrepresented in the all-volunteer military, and the rich are grossly underrepresented.  That thus makes it easier for our elected leaders and their wealthier supporters to be cavalier about making war in general, knowing that they or their kids won't personally be affected.  Also along with that, it is seen as a gross injustice towards the poor and working class, and especially for racialized minorities, that they do such a disproportionate share of the fighting and dying.  While there is a kernel of truth to both components of this argument, that does NOT change the basic fact that the elites have ALWAYS been able to get themselves out of harm's way, draft or no draft, and practically ALL wars in recorded history have been primarily fought by the poor and working class for the benefit and wealth of the rich.  And the real corrective for that is to simply abolish poverty and the desperation that goes with it with a robust social welfare state including, but not limited to, Universal Basic Income, single-payer Medicare For All, and free college.  And yes, per the iron laws of supply and demand, we will have to pay our troops significantly more than they are paid now, or more accurately, pay them what they are really worth for once!  And, of course, we have got to knock it off with the imperialistic wars of choice!

As for any supposedly "altruistic" or "humanitarian" wars (in the rare cases when it is not merely a cover for imperialism), hey, if you feel like YOU personally have a duty to risk dying for random people halfway around the world for whatever reason, be my guest.  You can even go start your own "Human Shield Brigade" with like-minded folks.  Just don't force or coerce other people to do it for you to soothe YOUR aching conscience, capisce?  Such "vicarious altruism" with other people's blood and treasure is really not altruism at all, but rather egoism in disguise.

(By the way, the mere presence of a draft does NOT preclude a country's leaders from being cavalier about war or getting stuck in long military quagmires.  See Vietnam, for example.  Or more recently, Israel.)

Regardless, in any case, two wrongs do NOT make a right!

Then there is the perennial "social engineering" or  argument, which is probably the most vexing one of all.  Not because is it particularly hard to debunk (it's really quite easy, as you will quickly see), but because of the way it sticks in people's minds so puzzlingly well even after the first two arguments are revealed to be hollow.  Basically, some people arrogantly seem to think that they somehow know what is best for everyone else at a personal level, and believe that they therefore have the right to force or coerce it upon them if they won't willingly accept it "for their own good" and the supposed "greater good" of society.  Such a thing is utterly patronizing and paternalistic, but we see it in so many other areas of life that few of us hardly even notice it anymore.  So when people claim that bring back a (presumably universal) draft would somehow be a panacea for whatever ails society, there will always be some people who listen and agree.  But regardless of how one feels about that and the limits of social engineering in a free society, it is literally the WORST argument there is for forcing people against their will to do something with as much gravitas (and danger) as military service.  Regardless of what ancillary utilitarian benefits there may be to a draft, it all comes back to Machiavelli versus Kant once again.  If we truly believe that human beings are ends in themselves and not just means to an end, then conscription is automatically a non-starter.

Otherwise, it is a Machiavellian solution in search of a problem, whatever that problem may be.

And all this is before we even get into the issue of age.  As Phil Ochs famously sang in the 1960s, "It's always the old, who lead us to the war, it's always the young who fall".  And that remains true to this day.  If we really want to "share the sacrifice equally" like some modern conscription advocates claim to want, then by that logic, perhaps we should draft people in their 40s and 50s and beyond too.  And of course, the very first to be drafted should be the billionaires, followed by the millionaires, and so on down the pyramid.  After all, they are the ones who benefit from it the most, while being historically the most underrepresented.  Or even fairer still, perhaps we could have "consensual conscription" where all wars are put up to a (non-secret) popular vote, and those who vote yes are drafted as needed, followed by those who abstained, and those who voted no would be exempt from the draft.  But otherwise, there is really no such thing as an equitable draft, since drafts are by their very nature discriminatory.

Finally, there also sometimes is brought up the idea that being back the draft would somehow help the youth rights movement.  It is true that the lowering of the voting age, age of majority, and drinking age from 21 to 18 was partly spurred by the Vietnam draft and the idea that it was wrong for someone to be considered old enough to die for their country but too young to vote, drink, etc.  But guess what?  The existence of a draft was neither necessary nor sufficient to effect such a change.  First, the draft was in effect with a draft age of 18 from 1941-1946 and from 1948 to 1973, and yet it took three decades until 1971 to lower the voting age and until 1973 to lower the drinking age and age of majority in most states to 18.  And meanwhile, Canada and the UK didn't have any draft since 1945 and 1960, respectively, and yet they still managed to lower the age for full adult rights to 18 by the early 1970s, which then became an international consensus.  And no Western country, draft or no draft, raised its drinking age from 18 back to 21 except the USA in the 1980s and Lithuania in 2018, the latter country doing so after they brought back the draft in 2016.  And in general, countries that currently have significant conscription don't seem to be more youth-rights friendly than those who don't.

It's more likely that demographics were the biggest factor:  in 1968, fully half of the American population was under 18, and a vast majority was under 25.  The same was true in many other countries well.  Thus they had a strength in numbers that we wouldn't see in today's ageing population.  Bringing back the draft would almost certainly backfire on the youth rights movement today, even if it may invigorate the anti-war movement all the same.

So let's put this zombie idea to rest once and for all.  If WWIII happens, then all bets are off of course, but in any case, it is NOT a net benefit to the youth rights movement.

And to those who still think we should bring back the draft, we say, "YOU FIRST!" Go on.  (crickets)

(Mic drop)

Texas Social Media Ban Dead For Now

The Texas social media ban for anyone under 18 thankfully is now dead (for now) as of May 29, 2025 as the Senate ultimately missed a key deadline for a vote on the bill.  But we must not rest in our laurels just yet, though.  Unfortunately, another bill passed, and was signed into law, that requires app stores to verify age and parental consent for people under 18 to download apps, which takes effect on January 1, 2026 if it doesn't get struck down by the courts in the meantime.  Even if that one is not quite as bad.

Texas' Potential Social Media Ban Strictest In The History Of The World

The latest bill in Texas to restrict social media for young people is the strictest one in the history of the world thus far.  This bill as currently written, which passed the House and is now heading to the Senate, would absolutely ban anyone under 18 from using social media platforms, period.  And anyone signing up for a new social media account would face mandatory age verification, with the exact details on how that would work still not quite cut and dried yet, but most likely would involve some flavor of uploading or otherwise entering government-issued IDs, perhaps via third party services.  What that means for existing accounts remains to be determined, but parents would have the right to force social media companies to summarily and permanently delete their under-18 kids' accounts upon request.  And there are NO exceptions to what counts as "social media" as long one can create and share content on a website or app, except for news and sports websites.  

That would mean that in Texas, a 16 or 17 year old would be legally old enough to get married, but yet still somehow too young to post their wedding on Facebook, or any other social media for that matter.  Let that sink in for a moment.

(Suddenly, Florida's less extreme law, with its lower and graduated 14/16 age limit, and more, if unclear, exceptions, looks almost....quaint and nostalgic by comparison.)

Our vehement opposition to this abomination of a bill is twofold:  1) this bill blatantly violates the First Amendment rights of people under 18, and 2) it also creates a potentially massive privacy and cybersecurity risk for ALL ages due to the mandatory age verification, assuming government-issued IDs or other sensitive personal information is required.  It is grossly overbroad, unconstitutional, illiberal, and unethical.  And NO amount of lipstick can save this pig.

The ONE good thing about this bill is that it will require all ID and personal data used for age verification purposes to be used only for that specific purpose and deleted immediately afterwards, unlike some other bills out there.  Thank God (or Nature) for small mercies, right?  But honestly, can we really trust Big Tech with something like that?  I think we all know the answer to that question.

And don't even for a minute think that it will stop there!  We have all seen some flavor of this movie before, and it doesn't end well.  It certainly will NOT stop at 18, mark my words.  If it passes this year, and other states and the feds subsequently join them, then it is almost certain that it will be raised to 21 nationwide by 2030, if not sooner.  Just look at alcohol and tobacco, for example, which the bill's proponents are already comparing social media to.  Whether they make a beeline for 21 as soon as next year, or perhaps take the scenic route via 19 first (to "get it out of the high schools"), still remains to be determined, but they WILL get there one way another unless they are stopped NOW.  (Other countries will at least probably stop at 18, but almost certainly NOT the USA if the zealots succeed.)  

And don't think it will stop at "merely" verifying age either.  This can VERY easily lead to an Orwellian nightmare where all privacy and any semblance of anonymity is a thing of the past, and political dissidents are targeted by the state for voicing their opinions on any controversial issues.  And it goes further downhill from there as well.  

Don't say you haven't been warned!  While this particular bill is a primarily Republican effort, it has bipartisan support, just like all other tyranny against young people.

If they really wanted to keep young people safe online (and adults too!), they would do the following:

• Pass comprehensive data privacy legislation for ALL ages which, at a minimum, would ban any and all "surveillance advertising" and "dark patterns".  This is best done at the federal level in terms of effectiveness, but states can serve as important trailblazers nonetheless.
• Regulate the algorithms better, audit them, and ban "addictive design features" for ALL ages.
• Perhaps even tax the data mining of users by social media companies.
• Have a voluntary smartphone buyback program like they do for guns.
• Since the latest trend towards "bell to bell" phone-free schools is basically a foregone conclusion at this point, they should apply it to everyone (teachers, staff, administrators, and visitors), not just students.
• If after doing all of that we absolutely MUST set an "age of digital majority", then it should be no higher than 16 (ideally no higher than 15, but certainly NO higher than 16, EVER!), and it should be a "soft" age limit with plenty of generous exceptions, and NO mandatory age verification involving any sensitive personal information whatsoever, period.
• And if after all of that, they still insist on mandatory age verification, then they need to have a billion-dollar guarantee that such information will never fall into the wrong hands, and delay implementation of that requirement until that can be guaranteed.  That is, if a person's sensitive information is retained, compromised, or misused in any way, shape or form, that person should be entitled to at least one billion dollars in damages.  But Big Tech would NEVER agree to that, of course.  And that is by design.

And perhaps even do a "safety recall" of various social media platforms, freezing or quarantining them for ALL ages until the platforms are made reasonably safer.

But this sort of ageist and Orwellian bill, or even the milder versions which are either passed or pending in other states, need to be rejected completely, and yesterday, full stop.

(Mic drop)

P.S.  If what the social mediaphobes say is true in that the Big Tech platforms "already know more about their users than the users know about themselves", then mandatory age verification is completely unnecessary for enforcing any sort of hypothetical age limit or age-specific restrictions.  Simply holding them to an "actual knowledge" (as in COPPA) or "knowledge fairly implied on the basis of objective circumstances" (as in COPPA 2.0) standard, and auditing their existing treasure trove of user data (including their own age estimates) to keep them honest, is all that would be needed.  The zealots really can't have it both ways!

P.P.S.  The fact that the author of the bill is a fellow Elder Millennial like me really does NOT reflect very well at all on what our generation has become!  Pulling up the drawbridge for younger generations just like our Boomer parents did, the apple really did NOT fall far from the tree!

UPDATE:  The Texas social media ban is now dead (for now) as of May 29, 2025 as the Senate ultimately missed a key deadline for a vote on the bill.  Unfortunately, another bill passed, and was signed into law, that requires app stores to verify age and parental consent for people under 18 to download apps, which takes effect on January 1, 2026 if it doesn't get struck down by the courts in the meantime.

Have A Safe And Happy Memorial Day Weekend

This weekend is the weekend of Memorial Day, often known as the unofficial first day of summer and National BBQ Day.  But let's remember what it really is--a day to honor all of the men and women of our armed forces who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country, past and present.  And that of course includes all of those who died serving our country before they were legally old enough to drink.  Let us all take a moment of silence to honor them.

As for Candy Lightner, the ageist turncoat founder of MADD who had the chutzpah and hubris to go on national TV in 2008 and publicly insult our troops, all in a vain attempt to defend the ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age, may her name and memory be forever blotted out. 

And as always, arrive alive, don't drink and drive.  It's just NOT worth it, period.  And it's very simple to prevent.  If you plan to drive, don't drink, and if you plan to drink, don't drive.  It's not rocket science.  Designate a sober driver, call a cab or rideshare, use public transportation, crash on the couch, or even walk if you have to.  Or simply don't drink--nobody's got a gun to your head.  Problem solved.

(Mic drop)

Cutting The Gordian Knot For Good

The Gordian Knot is an ancient and timeless metaphor that still has just as much relevance today.  Per Wikipedia:

The cutting of the Gordian Knot is an Ancient Greek legend associated with Alexander the Great in Gordium in Phrygia, regarding a complex knot that tied an oxcart. Reputedly, whoever could untie it would be destined to rule all of Asia. In 333 BCE, Alexander was challenged to untie the knot. Instead of untangling it laboriously as expected, he dramatically cut through it with his sword. This is used as a metaphor for using brute force to solve a seemingly-intractable problem.

Does that sound familiar?  It certainly should.  What do the 21 drinking age and so many other types of illiberal and abominable policies (i.e. endless wars, creeping tyranny, voter suppression, revoking women's reproductive rights, mass deportations, and the all-out assault on the human rights of youth and other marginalized groups) all have in common?  They all revolve around, and are both caused and effected by, the illusion of control.  Per Wikipedia:

The illusion of control is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events. It was named by U.S. psychologist Ellen Langer and is thought to influence gambling behavior and belief in the paranormal.  Along with illusory superiority and optimism bias, the illusion of control is one of the positive illusions.

And there you have it.  The Gordian Knot in this case is the illusion of control.  And how to cut it?  Simply abandon that illusion, along with (especially) the desire for such control over others as well, and don't look back.  Problem solved.

For example, whenever the fearmongers cite scary-sounding statistics and studies in their zeal to make a case for more and more restrictions on young people, the best way to respond is:  "Yeah, so?  And your point is?"

And now we can see why Denmark is one of the happiest countries on Earth.  At least a major part of the reason has to be because they have largely abandoned the illusion of control long ago.  After all, they are the only Nordic country where the Temperance movement never really caught on.

(Which is probably why when anyone shoves seemingly scary statistics and studies about their country's world-leading and often technically hazardous drinking habits in their face, for all ages and especially among young people, they likely respond with a "Yeah, so?  And your point is?")

In other words, once enough people realize that it is neither possible nor desirable for people to use public policy to have anywhere near as much control over other people as they think, peace and liberty shall finally return to the land for good.  That said, convincing that many people is a LOT easier said than done.  After all, it is far easier to fool people than it is to convince people that they have been fooled.

Until then, the Law of Eristic Escalation shall reign supreme.  That is, imposition of order = escalation of chaos.

It is long past time to stop chasing the illusion of control.  It's like "chasing the dragon":  you're never gonna catch it, and you end up doing far more harm than good by even trying.

QED

UPDATE:  Looks like we spoke too soon about Denmark.  Just this year or so, their overall zeitgiest seems to be changing in a more "protective" (read: restrictive) direction towards young people, both in the physical and virtual worlds.  So what we said just a few paragraphs up is now quickly becoming outdated with each passing day.  Alas, ever since they did their rolling COVID lockdowns and such five years ago, Denmark hasn't ever been the same, it seems.

Alternate History Of The Legal Drinking Age (Part Deux)

In a previous post, we explored what an alternate timeline would have looked like if the drinking age was NOT raised to 21 in the 1980s.  The most critical point in preventing that from happening in that timeline was Michigan (the first domino) NOT raising it to 21 in 1978.  And the result?  The Overton window did NOT shift in favor of 21, and with most states choosing to keep it at 18 or 19 depending on the state, the feds did NOT force or coerced and states to raise their drinking ages.  If anything, the feds used positive reinforcement to get the Dirty Dozen states that were 21 since the 1930s and 1940s to lower their drinking ages, and by the end of the 1980s, all states except Utah were either 18 or 19 depending on the state.  Some states had a split 18/19 age limit for different beverage types (i.e. beer vs wine vs liquor), while some others had a split 18/19 age limit for on-premise vs. off-premise purchases, or more often, limits on quantities and/or hours of sale for off-premise purchases if under 19, but otherwise set at 18.  The most common was states who set it at 18 across the board, but allowed "local option" to set it 19 for off-premise purchases and/or quantity limits, though some of the 18 states chose to preempt even that on principle.  (The higher age limit in states with graduated age limits was often called the "No Trickle-Down Law" or the "No Gray Market Law".)

Alternatively, they choose a "July 1st Rule", where the drinking age is 18 across the board, except that off-premise purchases are delayed until July 1st of the year one turns 18 if one's birthday is earlier than that.

A few states chose to keep it (or raise it to) 20 or 21 for very large quantities (kegs or multiple cases or multiple handles bought in the same transaction or same day), but those states were in the minority.

Even Utah, the strictest state of all for obvious reasons, held their collective noses and grudgingly lowered their drinking age to 19 for weak beer and 21 for everything else by 1990, and then briefly 19/20, then finally a flat 19 across the board (except kegs) sometime during the 1990s.  Though they still retained their other bizarre and Byzantine liquor laws all the same in both timelines, of course.

So what would the 2020s look like in greater detail in this alternate timeline of events?

• Tobacco and nicotine age limits would remain at 18 in all but a very few states which are 19.  But many states choose to put a reasonable cap on the quantities that 18-20 year olds can purchase (per transaction, and only one transaction per day), to discourage them from giving or selling to their friends under 18.
• Cannabis is legalized in mostly the same states in both timelines (though a somewhat greater number of states do so in the alternate timeline), but all who do so choose 18 or 19 as their age limits, nearly always matching their drinking and smoking ages.  And like tobacco, most states choose to limit the quantities that 18-20 year olds can purchase per transaction and per day, and for the same reasons.
• And the federal government FINALLY gets around to legalizing it as well by 2024 if not sooner, with a federal age limit of 18 for cannabis sales (but no limit for use or possession) to match the tobacco sales age limit that still remains in effect.  The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Cannabis, Firearms, and Explosives and the FDA both have joint (pun intended) authority to enforce it on vendors.
• Alcohol taxes (and prices) in the USA are somewhat higher as a rule in the alternate timeline, though still not nearly as high as in Canada.  Thus, in nearly all states, the typical six-pack of beer costs about a dollar or two more in 2025 dollars.  Likewise, the typical gallon of wine and the average liter of hard liquor also costs an extra dollar or two more in the alternate timeline.  Some states also experiment with "minimum unit pricing" (MUP) as well, but most states still only prohibit selling "below cost."
• In 2019, instead of raising the tobacco sales age to 21, which there is virtually zero appetite for, the feds instead decided to implement the Mark Kleiman's idea to raise the federal cigarette and other combustible tobacco taxes to $5/pack or the equivalent amount of tobacco, BUT allowing states and localities to fully rebate it against their own tobacco-specific taxes.  Result?  Low-tax states states raise and largely equalize their taxes with high-tax ones, smoking rates plummet for all ages (especially among youth), and the interstate smuggling black market dries up.  Win-win-win for everyone except Big Tobacco and their sycophantic lackeys.
• Vaping products have their nicotine levels capped by the FDA at the same levels as the EU, UK, and Israel, most flavors are banned, and ingredients are better regulated as of 2019.  The "vaping epidemic" slows to a crawl.
• The drinking age of 18 (or 19, or split) is very strictly enforced on vendors and servers.  For young drinkers themselves, underage drinking is illegal but decriminalized in nearly every state by now.  It is typically treated like a minor traffic violation or parking ticket.
• While a few bars and clubs here and there set their own age limits of 21 or higher to enter, such examples remain few and far between, and are looked upon with disdain by most Americans. And for places like Dave and Busters, or really any other businesses for that matter, it would literally never even occur to the managers to set any age limits higher than 18, if even that high at all.  Such baseless age segregation remains well outside the Overton window in the alternate timeline.
• Without that specious quick fix in their toolkit, they instead implement a zero tolerance policy for fighting, vandalism, theft, and disorderly conduct of any kind, strictly enforced.  And they are NOT KIDDING!
• It remains rare for any hotels or motels to refuse anyone over 18 due to age.  Ditto for most cruise ships as well.
• Drunk driving is taken very, very seriously for people of all ages, and increasingly tough laws are increasingly strictly enforced.  The same goes for drug-impaired driving as well.
• Most states by now set the BAC limit at 0.05%, but anything below 0.08% is usually a traffic violation instead of a criminal offense.  (New York only has to add two words, per se, to their existing but currently underappreciated 0.05% law, by the way.).  And Zero Tolerance laws exist as well, albeit usually based on how long one has had their driver's license rather than age alone.  And for ALL drivers, the limit is now 0.00% if one is driving recklessly.
• Social host liability laws, while existing in some places in limited form, never really seem to catch on in most of the USA.  Most people think such laws are insane and un-American in the alternate timeline.
• The combination of the lack of a 21 drinking age and lack of social host laws results in somewhat more in-person socialization between young people, and between generations, in the alternate timeline compared to the current timeline.
• Block parties make a comeback, or more accurately, never really went away.
• America is still very much a car culture either way, but "safe rider" programs are far more common in the alternate timeline.  And slowly but surely, at least some improvements are finally being made in public transportation.
• America's drinking culture still leaves a lot to be desired, much like in the rest of the Anglosphere, but over time it becomes at least somewhat healthier and less extreme overall.
• Certainly the college drinking culture is much safer and healthier in the alternate timeline, even though it is often just as wild.  The wildness peaks during and shortly after "frosh week" at the beginning of freshman year, getting it largely out of their systems early on, after which students tend to buckle down and study a bit more and keep the partying in it's proper place in their list of priorities, certainly by the time midterms roll around. Especially since all of the major universities have finally decided to tackle the grade inflation that had been building for decades.
• Many colleges and universities even have bars and pubs on campus, sometimes even in the dorms.
• Fraternities and sororities, while they still exist, largely wither on the vine as they have become increasingly obsolete, except for the more academic and service-oriented ones.
• High school, contrary to what some may fear, is NOT radically different between the two timelines, and in many ways improved.  Drinking and "binge" drinking rates are both at most a couple of percentage points higher (if at all) in the alternate timeline for grade 12, mostly due to greater honesty in surveys (which are always taken with at least a grain of salt in the alternate timeline).  They may drink slightly more frequently, but the less they do when they do on average.  For earlier grades, the difference is practically negligible.  And differences in cannabis use rates are also practically negligible in all grades, while tobacco and nicotine use rates are actually lower in the alternate timeline.
• And no, there is NO practical difference in "liquid lunches" among high school students between the two timelines.  By now, the drinking age (regardless of what it is) is VERY strictly enforced in that regard, and K-12 school grounds are strictly "dry" for all ages.  (This is still the USA, not Denmark, after all!)
• Unfortunately, the COVID pandemic still happens, and so do the lockdowns and related restrictions.  But such restrictions generally tend to be somewhat briefer and somewhat less extreme in the alternate timeline, as America has still not been quite as affected by "safetyism" as in the current timeline.  Not much change either way in the case and death rates regardless, though.  Turns out, as the saying goes, virus gonna virus, and humans gonna human.  
• And in the alternate timeline, since the 1980s we as a society have clearly fallen out of love with the "illusion of control", to the extent that we ever even really loved it at all.  That has got to be the single most defining feature that differs between the two timelines.
• Traffic death rates, both alcohol-related and otherwise, are actually rather lower in the alternate timeline compared to the current one, both among youth and adults alike.  And the relative decrease in feelings of alienation and loneliness among younger people leads to at least somewhat fewer suicides and mass shootings as well.
• While Donald Trump still most likely gets elected President in 2016*, in 2024 he ends up narrowly losing to Kamala Harris instead of narrowly winning, both by popular vote as well as the Electoral College.  That is because America's loneliness epidemic and feelings of alienation among younger Americans, especially young men, while still persistent, is at least marginally less pronounced in the alternate timeline, and the fence-sitters were less likely to be swayed towards Trump.  (And Trump's second failed coup attempt in January 2025 fails even more than it did on January 6th, 2021, as he is largely greeted by crickets this time around, and he ultimately ends up in prison where he belongs.)  It turns out the age-segregation effects of the 21 drinking age (and its ancillary laws and policies) in the current timeline were much more far-reaching than anyone could have predicted.  
• And the rest is history.  And the beat goes on.....

And America shall once again become the "shining city on a hill" that we were meant to be all along.  An America to be truly proud of.  If only we were in that alternate timeline.

*P.S.  Ideally the DNC would NOT have totally screwed over Bernie Sanders, and he could have beaten Trump in 2016.  That, and the Democratic Party establishment would not have eaten its young either.  After all, Trump was literally supposed to lose, by design.  But that, of course, would have probably been yet another alternate timeline, albeit one that is largely the same as the one discussed above, but perhaps with a few more subtle differences added on.  Also, perhaps the voting age would have been lowered to 16 as a result of a greater focus on youth rights in general, and would have the same effect on preventing Trump's reelection as it successfully prevented Bolsonaro's reelection in Brazil.

P.P.S.  Of course, had Jimmy Carter been re-elected in 1980 instead of Reagan, America would now REALLY be more like Canada in so many ways, only better, having dodged the very worst of neoliberalism and all of that nonsense.  And Carter could have pulled it off had he not screwed up in the presidential debate less than two weeks before the election, as he was well ahead in the polls just before the debate.  But it was far more parsimonious to simply leave the 1980 election unchanged in the above alternate timeline, with Reagan as the winner, so as to isolate the drinking age as the variable of interest, unconfounded by that very pivotal and fateful election.  Regardless, had Michigan failed to raise the drinking age to 21 in 1978, either way, it would have been extremely unlikely that either Reagan or Carter would have ever been swayed (let alone gung-ho) in that direction.

About That Finland Study (Part Deux)

(This is a continuation of a previous article from 2023.)

Another recent Finland study this year found that the higher alcohol tax rates and alcohol advertising restrictions implemented in the mid-1970s in that country had a much larger long-term beneficial effect on the cohorts who were under 18 at the time compared to those who where already over 18 by then.  The study authors of course give more credit to the advertising restrictions than the tax hikes, but historically speaking, most research would argue the reverse, namely that the tax/price hikes would have had a larger effect than the advertising restrictions.

The key takeaway:  if alcohol taxes/prices are high enough, then the legal drinking age essentially becomes irrelevant.

Tobacco 21 Laws STILL Don't Work

More evidence that Tobacco 21 laws aren't working:  while survey results seem to show that smoking rates have fallen among young adults some Tobacco 21 laws were passed, biomarkers say otherwise, according to a recent study.  Turns out, while more young people are hiding the fact that they smoke because it's now illegal, they are still smoking.  Gee, who woulda think it?  In other news, water is wet, and the sun rises in the east and sets in the west.

Safety Third

We live in a culture where "Safety First" is increasingly taken for granted, and has been since roughly the mid-1980s following a series of moral panics and zealotry in general.  While it is generally a good thing that safety has largely improved since then (prior to that, Americans were really quite cavalier overall, and it really showed in the statistics across multiple domains), there can also be too much of a good thing as well.  

Most people at least intuitively know this on some level, and that's why even the most die-hard safety zealots seldom (if ever) practice what they preach in all areas of life all of the time, at least not for very long.  Even they still conveniently carve out selective and arbitrary exceptions for themselves and their own chosen "guilty" pleasures and activities.  

From the abomination that is the 21 drinking age to the War on (people who use a few particular) Drugs to increasingly stringent rules and heavy monitoring of youth to lack of free play among children to prison-like schools to actual mass incarceration to the sexual counterrevolution dressed up as "culture wars" to the ever-encroaching nanny state to finally the ultimate culmination of safety zealotry, the pandemic lockdowns and related restrictions, we have clearly been sold a bill of goods in that regard.  And yet paradoxically, actual health safety statistics from life expectancy to violent deaths to traffic casualties have in the USA actually lagged behind peer nations, often well behind.  Thus, it's long past time to take a fresh approach.

We call that approach "Safety Third".  And it's really not an entirely novel idea, having been promoted in some form by diverse folks from "Dirty Jobs" pundit Mike Rowe (largely right-wing) all the way to contemporary philosopher Charles Eisenstein (largely left-wing).  That does NOT at all mean that safety is trivial or should be disregarded as such, far from it.  We do value safety as important, of course, but not THE most important thing, let alone the ultimate end-all-be-all of human flourishing.  

So if safety is third on the list of priorities, what are first and second then?  For example, Charles Eisenstein says "giving and receiving", not necessarily in that order.  That makes sense, if a bit vague perhaps, but we at the TSAP and Twenty-One Debunked would alternatively answer, "liberty and justice for all", not necessarily in that order.  Anything short of that is un-American.

Even the biggest safety zealots have to concede that.  For example, we could theoretically save even more lives by making the speed limit 21 and the drinking age 55 rather than the other way around, but we don't and never will.  Because deep down, we all know on some level that there are other important considerations as well in any free society worthy of the name.

It was indeed one of our Founding Fathers, Benjamin Franklin, who said, "Whoever gives up essential liberty for a little temporary safety, deserves neither and loses both."  After all, safety is a great servant, but a terrible master.  We would be wise to recognize that, in all areas of life.

At The End Of The Day, We're Not Japan

There are a lot of wonderful things about Japan.  The culture, the food, the technology, the games, the general lack of street crime and violence, and so on are all great.  But at the same time, there are some things about Japan that would absolutely NEVER fly in America, and for very good reason.

Take their extremely strict (even by global standards, not just by American standards!) approach to DUI, for example:

• The BAC limit for driving is a mere 0.03%, where as little as ONE standard drink will almost certainly put you over the limit for at least an hour or two (effectively zero tolerance).  For ALL ages, period.
• Penalties can range from up to three years in prison, a $5000 fine, and losing one's license for at least three months (which wouldn't matter if one is locked up for three years).  And you will almost certainly lose your job as well.  Again, for as little as ONE drink before driving.  OUCH!
• And if you have the audacity to exceed 0.04% when driving, which translates to one or at most two standard drinks in a couple hours or so (depending on body weight, gender, time, pace of drinking, food, etc.), it gets even worse still:  five years in prison, a $10,000 fine, and cancellation of one's license altogether.  DOUBLE OUCH!
• Above that second threshold, though, there are no further graduated penalties at the margin:  driving after one or two drinks is treated the same as driving after ten.
• But wait, there's more!  As if that wasn't bad enough, it's NOT only the driver who is on the hook for such harsh penalties.  Anyone who allows someone to get behind the wheel after drinking even ONE drink, including the passengers and anyone who served the driver, such as in restaurants and bars, and anyone who provided a vehicle to the driver, will also face roughly the same penalties.  It is collective responsibility taken to the extreme, basically.
• Oh, and this also applies to bicycle riders as well, by the way.  (But hey, at least they don't apply it to pedestrians though, as there are no laws against drunk walking or public drunkenness there.)
• And this is all very strictly enforced, of course.

In a word, WOW!  They are so strict that bars and restaurants will simply not let you order even ONE beer unless they confirm with you first that you will not be driving home.  They even have "skipper" taxi services for hire with two drivers:  one to drive your vehicle home, and one to pick up the first driver afterwards.  (Or sometimes just one driver with an e-bike to ride themself back, and then onto the next customer.) And the popularity of non-alcoholic beers and wines has predictably skyrocketed in Japan since these laws were passed in 2002 and 2007.  

And yes, it is true that Japan saw alcohol-related traffic fatalities drop by over half instantly, and by up to 80 percent over the next few years following the passage of these super-strict laws.  Significant decreases in such casualties were seen after each of both the 2002 (i.e. lowering the BAC limit from 0.05% to 0.03%) and 2007 (penalties for passengers, servers, and vehicle lenders) law changes, and both also involved a great stiffening of DUI penalties in general, as opposed to merely making the law harder to satisfy.  So on its own terms, it seems to have worked wonders, at least on the surface.  But at what cost, really?  

Baby, meet bathwater, basically.

Try to implement such a draconian law over here in the USA today, especially the part about punishing servers and passengers, and the very best you could hope for in terms of unintended consequences in our culture would be a deep-freeze chilling effect on what is left of in-person socialization, and it goes downhill from there.  

In any case, such a law is WAY outside of the Overton window for an individualistic society (not to mention a car culture with vast rural areas!) like the USA, so the odds of this ever happening here are quite slim to none indeed.  It is truly un-American, to say the least.  But both less extreme (in terms of criminal penalties) AND more extreme (in terms of lower BAC limits) versions of this have of course been applied to Americans under the arbitrary age of 21 for decades now:  just think of zero tolerance laws and social host liability laws.  And internal possession laws, constructive possession laws, use and lose laws, keg registration, and other face-saving ancillary laws to prop up the failed experiment that is the 21 drinking age as well.

Oh, and even with this law in place for two decades, Japan STILL has stubbornly refused to lower the drinking age to 18.  Even after lowering the age of majority from 20 to 18 effective in 2022, they still kept the drinking age and smoking age at 20, because reasons.  And that whole thing about easily getting beer and sake in vending machines (!) for the past few decades or so?  Well, now the vending machines will need to see (and scan) some ID, at least most of them, apparently, according to Reddit.

That said, Japan is actually surprisingly lax in general by American standards about things like public drunkenness (as long as one is not being disorderly, of course), drinking in public, drinking on public transportation, and even drinking in a car (!) as long as the driver isn't drinking.  And alcohol is available almost everywhere, from convenience stores to supermarkets to vending machines and even in fast-food restaurants as well. That's largely because no liquor licenses are required for serve alcohol on-premise in Japan, and even though such licenses are required to sell alcohol for off-premise, they aren't exactly hard to get.

Twenty-One Debunked strongly opposes drunk driving, of course, but still does NOT support such an extreme approach to it like they have in Japan.  Rather, we support a graduated BAC limit of 0.05% for administrative-only penalties, 0.08% for criminal penalties, 0.15% for "aggravated DUI" criminal penalties, and a limit of 0.00% if driving recklessly, and grudgingly support 0.00-0.02% zero tolerance for young and novice drivers, ideally based on number of years of licensed driving rather than age alone.  Riding a bicycle under the influence should be a traffic violation, not a crime.  (Walking under the influence should not be illegal at all in itself, of course.)  And we believe in individual responsibility, thus the only people punished should be the drinking drivers themselves, not the passengers or servers, as that would be un-American.  Thus, we also believe that dram shop and social host liability laws should be repealed, or at least greatly watered down, as far as consenting adults are concerned.

Crack down HARD on actual drunk drivers, with sobriety checkpoints (provided that they follow the Constitution, of course) and especially roving and saturation patrols as well.  "Rovin' Eyes....are watching YOU!!!"

(Contrary to what some believe, something approximating de facto "random breath testing" actually IS possible in the USA, they just have to be more creative about it.)

Repeat or high-BAC offenders, and especially those driving recklessly as well, should lose their licenses immediately and permanently, and go directly to jail.  Do NOT pass GO.  Do NOT collect $200.  Do the crime, do the time.  

Even first offenders (who have likely been doing it hundreds of times before getting caught the first time) should still be punished harshly enough to be a very serious deterrent as well.  We also need to expand the use of ignition interlocks for ALL DUI offenders, as well as things like DUI Courts and South Dakota's highly successful 24/7 Program.

Kill or maim someone else as a result of driving under the influence?  Throw away the key!  NO MERCY!

And yes, the "skipper" taxi and rideshare services are an excellent idea that should be implemented everywhere, as well as also extending the hours of public transportation where it currently exists.  There is no reason to make the perfect the enemy of the good, after all.  And that will also help the hospitality industry survive as well.

To Japan's credit, they have proven that it is indeed possible to completely separate drinking from driving.  We certainly have to give them kudos for that, no doubt.

But criminalizing and jailing experienced and responsible adult drivers (let alone those around them too!) for having ONE glass of wine or beer with dinner?  That is simply a bridge too far for any free society that has even the slightest hint of a car culture.  That's not public safety, that's lunacy!

(And as Japan has shown, it's NOT like even that will be enough to appease the ageists into lowering the drinking age, as there is really NO appeasing anyone like that.  Meanwhile, far less strict countries, even with car cultures, still have no qualms about letting 18 year olds drink, as long as the don't drive under the influence of course.)

And of course, we strongly believe that the drinking age should be lowered to 18, period, and yesterday is NOT soon enough.  Let America be America again.  If you're old enough to go to war, you're old enough to go to the bar.  'Nuff said.

After all, at the end of the day, we're NOT Japan.  We never were, and we never will be either.