Cannabis Legalization STILL Not A Disaster, In Canada Or The USA

Yet another study debunks the prohibitionists once again.  When Canada legalized cannabis for recreational use in 2018 (for flower, followed by concentrates and edibles in 2020), there was no increase in cannabis-related hospitalizations for either 18-24 year olds or those 25+ following legalization.  Keep in mind that in Canada, the federal age limit for cannabis is 18, and the provinces set it at 18 in Alberta and Quebec (the latter has since raised it to 21, alas), and 19 elsewhere, largely matching the legal drinking and tobacco smoking ages in most provinces.  The study, interestingly enough, looked at data specifically from Alberta, which was the only province that kept it at 18 consistently since legalization, and thus the most permissive one.

This dovetails nicely with other studies in both Canada and the USA, in which the dire predictions of the doomsayers notably failed to materialize.

UPDATE:  And before anyone mentions "Tokelahoma", we should note that both violent and property crime in Oklahoma have actually been trending downward, not upward, since their "Wild West" of free market "medical" cannabis legalization in 2018.  Crime in the state is slightly above the national average, but that was true even long before such legalization too.  And a few odd high-profile incidents do NOT a trend make or break.  As we have noted repeatedly before, the correlation between cannabis legalization and real crime is, for all practical purposes, essentially null.  In fact, there is some evidence of a decrease in crime.

And another study finds no increase, and in fact a decrease, of young adults driving under the influence of either cannabis OR alcohol following legalization. 

And while it is debatable whether cannabis legalization actually reduces the use of alcohol or tobacco, data from state tax receipts at the very least shows no increase in the consumption of either of the latter two substances following legalization.

UPDATE:  Another study finds an inverse relationship between recreational cannabis legalization and intimate partner violence, the opposite of what researchers predicted.  That is, legalization appeared to reduce it, contrary to "Reefer Madness" stereotypes.

Cannabis Legalization Still Not A Disaster After All

The latest evidence finds that cannabis legalization was NOT a disaster after all, and that essentially NONE of the prohibitionists' histrionic fears had come to pass.  Yes, really.  That's the good news.

The bad news?  Legalization has been half-assed thus far, and we need to finish the job. Yesterday.  First of all, we need to fully legalize it at the federal level and get it out of the ridiculous legal limbo it has been in for years.  Secondly, we need to treat it no more stringently than alcohol or tobacco, not tax it excessively, and make retail licenses cheaper and easier to get, to reduce barriers to entry.  And finally, we need to reduce the age limit to 18.  Do all of these things, and the black market will wither on the vine.

So what are we waiting for?

Latest Twin Study Pours Cold Water Over Cannabis Prohibitionists

A new study looked at pairs of twins where one twin lived in a recreational cannabis legalization state and the other lived in a state where it remained illegal and found the following:

• Somewhat greater self-reported levels of cannabis use among those living in legalization states, but they were no more likely to experience negative consequences as a result of their cannabis use.
• Both groups consumed alcohol at similar rates, but those living in legalization states reported fewer negative consequences from their alcohol use.
• No significant difference in tobacco or other controlled substance use between the two groups.

This dovetails nicely with a previous study that finds that alcohol use disorders are also less likely in co-twins who live in legalization states as well (and also no increase in psychosis either).

No increase in adverse consequences of cannabis use (check), decrease in adverse consequences of alcohol use (check), and no increase in tobacco or other drug use (check).  And no increase in psychosis either.  Both the gateway theory and Reefer Madness have thus been thoroughly debunked, at least insofar as they relate to legalization.  Ditto for any alleged associations with (non-victimless) crime as well, especially violence.  Such robust research findings slaughter so many of the sacred cows of the prohibitionists, that it's time to have a barbecue.

Another New Study Confirms: Legalizing Cannabis Not A Disaster After All

Yet another study confirms what we have known all along:  legalization of recreational cannabis was NOT a disaster after all.  The study found that legalization at the state level was NOT associated with any increases in drug treatment admissions, violent crime, or overdose deaths, and in some cases even appeared to have the opposite effect.  These findings dovetail with other recent studies as well, and we are really not surprised.  So much for the gateway drug theory, Reefer Madness, and other tired, old perennial Chicken Little predictions from the prohibitionists.

Additionally, just days earlier, another tired, old myth bit the dust as well.  Another new study finds no link between cannabis use and the stereotypical "amotivational syndrome" after controlling for confounders.  This particular study followed 14-17 year olds for a period of two years and did not find such a correlation, which is notable since numerous previous studies of the matter have generally failed to find such effects in adults but occasionally succeeded when looking specifically at adolescents.  So the fact that they could not detect such effects in that age group implies that such effects, if they do occur, are relatively rare and most likely confined to the small minority of very-heavy and ultra-heavy users and/or those who began using cannabis even earlier in life still.  And it thoroughly puts the lie to the fearmongers' claim that legalization would supposedly result in a nation of "orange-lipped couch-potato" zombies whose only semblance of motivation is the acquisition of their next hit.

And yet another myth debunked as well:  cannabis use does NOT appear to be independently linked to increased risk of stroke in young adults after adjusting for confounders such as tobacco use, according to another new study.  While previous studies on the matter have yielded inconsistent results, the prohibitionists of course luuurrrrved to spin such studies to their advantage.

Thus, no good reason not to fully legalize cannabis for everyone over 18 nationwide yesterday, and treat it no more stringently than alcohol or tobacco.  Period.

To anyone reading this who still opposes legalization, because reasons, we have a question for you: How does it feel to be on the wrong side of history?  Because we wouldn't know anything about that.

The Anti-Legalization Movement Is Grasping At Straws Now

The anti-legalization movement in regards to cannabis has been getting quite desperate lately.  For example, Kevin Sabet of the anti-legalization group Project SAM has lately been disingenuously harping on the mystery vaping illness (now called EVALI) and shifting the spotlight onto legal cannabis vape products from licensed dispensaries while glossing over that inconvenient fact that the vast, vast, majority of the over 2000 EVALI cases so far are linked to black-market and counterfeit THC vape cartridges (as well as sketchy gray-market CBD vape cartridges).  In fact, non-legalization states have had far more EVALI cases than legalization states, though no state seems to be immune to it.  And the primary culprit appears to be Vitamin E Acetate (and possibly other questionable additives), and perhaps even the heavy metals from janky devices, as opposed to the actual cannabis itself, though he slyly glosses over that as well.  The biggest irony, of course, is that banning legal cannabis dispensaries will only drive even more consumers to the black market, thus pouring gasoline on the raging fires of EVALI.

In other words, Kevin Sabet and Project SAM are nothing more than concern trolls, and need to be taken with at least a grain of salt, if not a whole pound.  While there have been a few outlier cases of EVALI ostensibly linked to legal cannabis products from licensed dispensaries in some states, most of these cases remain either unconfirmed and/or the use of black market, counterfeit, or modified vape products has not been entirely ruled out in such cases.  To the extent that any of these are in fact caused by rogue and adulterated products from bad actors in the legitimate cannabis market, the solution is better regulation and oversight, NOT prohbition.

(In the meantime, it is probably best for the time being for current cannabis vapers to switch to dry-herb vaporizers, which have never been linked to EVALI or any other illness, to vape regular weed if you don't want to smoke it, just to be on the safe side.  Or at the very least, do your research and due diligence, and avoid all black-market, counterfeit, janky, suspect, and/or modified products like the plague.  And there are also edibles and tinctures.)

Oh and by the way, the anti-legalization movement is apparently also tainted with some thinly- and not-so-thinly-veiled anti-Semitism as well.  Not everyone of course, but as the Labour Party in the UK has unfortunately learned the hard way, failing to condemn it, turning a blind eye to it, or even creating a mere perception of same, has the same impact as deliberate and overt Jew-hatred and Jew-baiting does, and we know impact > intent.  And of course, the anti-Semitism in the broader cannabis prohibitionist movement goes back to at least Nixon and his notorious red-baiting and Jew-baiting conspiracy theories, while the movement's virulent racism and xenophobia in general goes all the way back to the very genesis of the movement over a century ago.

To be fair, there is no evidence that Kevin Sabet (or Project SAM in general) personally holds any anti-Semitic or racist views, with their only known bigotry being against cannabis and its users.  But in the broader cannabis prohibitionist movement today, others like Roger Morgan et al. DO apparently hold enough anti-Semitic views to be willing to openly repeat (if not concoct) long-since debunked anti-Semitic conspiracy theories (mainly involving George Soros) all the same, and the silence from Sabet and Project SAM (who just so happen to also share a connection with Morgan) is truly deafening indeed.

To the cannabis prohibitionist / anti-legalization movement, we have one question for you:  how does it feel to be on the wrong side of history?  Because we wouldn't know anything about that.

Cannabis Legalization NOT Associated With Increased Teen Use

After several years of recreational cannabis legalization in several states, on the heels of up to over two decades of medical cannabis legalization in even more states, a recent study once again puts the lie to the prohibitionist claim that legalization would result in increased teen use of cannabis among other things in their supposed parade of horribles.  In fact, the study found that recreational legalization for adults was found to be correlated with a significant decrease in both overall and frequent teen use, while medical-only legalization was not significantly correlated with teen use at all either way.  Thus, the study completely lays waste to one of the prohibitionists' strongest arguments.  So consider that perennial zombie lie dead as a doornail for good.

That said, Twenty-One Debunked, in living up to our name, would be remiss if we did not note that so far, all states that have legalized weed for recreational use thus far have set the age limit at 21 (in contrast to Canada, where it is 18 or 19 depending on the province, or Uruguay and the Netherlands, where it is 18) and the study only looked at the USA.  But given that 1) medical legalization laws (which were not correlated with teen use) generally set the age limit at 18 in the absence of parental consent and often have loopholes, and 2) other countries that set lower age limits have thus far not reported a significant jump in teen use in recent years, and 3) America's experience thus far with changes in the drinking and tobacco smoking ages, one can conclude that an age limit of 18 for recreational use in the USA is unlikely to increase teen use relative to either prohibition or a 21 age limit.  Thus, no good reason to set it higher than 18.

Still No Increase In Stoned Driving Post-Legalization In Canada

Cannabis has been legal in Canada for everyone over 18 (or 19, depending on the province) since October 17, 2018, and yet six months later there has still been no noticeable increase in stoned driving and related crashes overall according to police.  While it may still be too soon to tell, that is still very encouraging news that takes much of the wind out the sails of both prohibitionists and ageists alike.

This adds to the growing body of evidence that legalization of cannabis was NOT a disaster after all, and that there is no good reason to set the age limit any higher than 18.  Food for thought indeed. 

The Verdict Is In: Legalizing Weed STILL Does NOT Increase Crime Rates

Recently, the modern-day "Reefer Madness"-type alarmist yellow journalist Alex Berenson has been claiming that cannabis legalization has caused huge spikes in violent crime since 2014 in the states in which it has been legalized.  He then claims that such increases in crime are somehow causally linked to the effects of cannabis (particularly via the putative and controverisal link to psychosis), and therefore to legalization as well.   But both claims are in fact highly faulty and questionable at best:  1) plenty of states, not just legalization states, saw at least modest spikes in violent crime in 2015-2016, 2) violent crime now seems to be decreasing once again regardless of legalization, 3) 2014 is an arbitrary year to choose for the base year given the timing of legalization initiatives, 4) cannabis has never been causally and conclusively linked to violence, except perhaps inversely, and 5) and most importantly, correlation does not prove causation, as so many other variables come into play here.

In fact, the latest studies on the matter have confirmed what the TSAP and Twenty-One Debunked have kinda always known.  Legalizing weed does NOT seem to increase crime rates like the prohibitionists often claimed it would, and if anything, appears to decrease violent and property crimes a bit, as well as improve their clearance rates by police.  For example, researchers found this by comparing the border counties of Washington and Oregon, whose timing of legalization differed but were otherwise quite similar. But we could've told you that years ago, for those actually willing to listen.

The theory for how legalization of cannabis would reduce crime is fairly simple.  First, it frees up relatively scarce police and other resources that would otherwise be used to bust people for weed, and allows such resources to be put to more productive uses (i.e. targeting real crime rather than victimless crime).  Secondly, cannabis is basically a non-violent drug, and can often substitute for alcohol, which is often (rightly or wrongly) linked to violence to one degree or another.  Thirdly, there is the systemic aspect, the violence linked to the illicit drug trade itself, which would self-evidently decrease if not disappear upon legalization, at least with regard to the substance being legalized. And finally, victimless crime laws, especially widely unpopular ones like cannabis prohibition (and, of course, the 21 drinking age) erode respect for the law in general and also erode cooperation and cohesion between the police and the community.  Thus, it really doesn't take a rocket scientist to see how removing such illiberal and pharisaical laws from the books would tend to decrease crime in general.

What about the opposite theory?  Not the long-debunked one that cannabis per se actually causes violent and property crime (which is rather silly on its face, mind you), but the one that claims that cannabis prohibition is a useful crime-fighting tool for police?  Well, as the saying goes, the proof is in the pudding, and we really don't see any credible evidence of that on balance.  Any utility that such an abomination would have in that regard appears to be more than outweighed by its very real downsides, and thus we can consider that theory debunked as well.

(Cue the Law and Order DUN DUN sound effect.)

We need to legalize cannabis in all 50 states and all territories as well, yesterday, and lower the age limit to 18 as well, just like our neighbor to the north.  It is LONG overdue.  So what are we waiting for?

New Federal Cannabis Legalization Bill Actually Has A Chance of Passing

There is a new cannabis legalization bill in Congress, sponsored by Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, and it is actually numbered S.420, in a not-so-subtle nod to cannabis culture.  The bill would 1) officially remove cannabis from the federal list of controlled substances completely, thus allowing it to be sold in states where it is legal while barring its sale in the states where it is still illegal, 2) tax cannabis at the federal level like alcohol and tobacco, and 3) otherwise regulate it similarly to alcohol at the federal level.  And it actually has a significant chance of passing, in what is currently by far the most cannabis-friendly Congress in all of US history since the famously hemp-growing Founding Fathers.  And now with Jeff Sessions out of the way, with enough persuasion the Donald might even sign it, being quite the wildcard that he is.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

And unlike the ill-fated and problematic STATES Act, which effectively would have set a federal age limit of 21 for weed, S.420 is silent on the age issue, essentially leaving it up to the states.  Kinda like with alcohol, minus the infamous National Minimum Drinking Age Act 1984 of course.  And while S.420 is not quite as good and comprehensive as the Marijuana Justice Act would be, it is certainly a great start and seriously needs to be passed yesterday.

So what are we waiting for?  It is LONG overdue. And while we are at it, the legalization states should also lower the toking age to 18 yesterday as well.

Traffic Deaths Down So Far In 2018

There is good news on the highways lately, namely that preliminary data for the first half of 2018 show a 3.1% decrease in traffic deaths, and 2017 saw a 1.8% decrease as well following two straight years of significant increases.  This is true despite the fact that the economy is still improving and there is thus more driving going on now than a few years ago.

So what happened in 2017-2018?  Well, gas prices began rising again, after plummenting in 2014-2015 and reaching a low in the spring of 2016.  And we know that there is an inverse correlation between gas prices and traffic fatalities.  gas prices still remain well below their 2011-2014 average levels, even as some states raised their gas taxes.  So that only explains part of the picture.  And alcohol taxes, already historically low, have actually dropped since the Republican tax bill.  So what else could it be?

The general secular trend in traffic deaths per vehicle miles traveled has been downward for decades, so this recent decrease could simply be reversion to the mean following the 2015-2016 spike in fatalities, at least in part.  But the fact that so many states recently legalized cannabis from 2016-2018, and the proverbial dust has settled in the few states that had done so earlier, at the very least casts serious doubt that the previous spike in fatalities was caused by legalization, and supports the idea that legalization may have even reduced such deaths by displacing alcohol use and thus drunk driving as well.

Thus, as we have noted time and again, cannabis legalization was not a disaster after all, and seems to have been a net benefit to public health and safety overall.  Next step is to legalize it at the federal level and in all 50 states and all territories as well, and also to lower the age limit to 18 like Canada now has.

So what are we waiting for?

O Cannabis! Canada Fully Legalizes Weed

Well, it's official.  Our friendly neighbor to the north, Canada, has now fully legalized cannabis effective today, October 17, 2018.  The actual law doing so, Bill C-45, was passed a few months ago in June, but officially goes into effect today.  That makes Canada the second country in the world (after Uruguay in 2014) to officially and fully legalize it nationwide.

The details vary from province to province, but cannabis is generally legal in all 13 Canadian provinces and territories now.  Age limits for purchase and possession are 18 or 19 depending on the province.  It will be the same as the drinking age, with the notable exception of Manitoba whose drinking age is 18 but whose toking age is 19, because reasons.  Thus, Alberta and Quebec will be 18 and everywhere else will be 19.  Not perfect, of course, but still WAY more progressive than the USA, in which only a fraction of the states have full legalization and all of such legalization states set the age limit at 21.  You know, kinda like the ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age--which really needs to be lowered to 18 yesterday (along with the toking age as well).

Other advantages of the Canadian model of legalization include the fact that the prices/taxes of legal weed will be set low enough to undercut the black market, something that the legalization states in the USA still have yet to do.  This, combined with a lower age limit than the USA, would lead to the black market collapsing much sooner.  And once it is gone, it will be gone forever within a few years from now, and then prices/taxes can then be raised just high enough to discourage overconsumption without resurrecting that very same black market.

We can certainly learn a lot from our friendly neighbor to the north.  So what are waiting for?

Is Teen Cannabis Use Really on the Rise?

The same FDA chief that has been freaking out over a supposed teen vaping "epidemic" (that is far more molehill than mountain, by the way), Scott Gottlieb, is now also freaking out about teen cannabis use and how it relates to legalization.   In fact, he says he is now more worried about weed than vaping, which really says something.  But is there any truth to his fears, particularly the idea that teen cannabis use is on the rise as a result of both medical and recreational legalization in more and more states?

The answer is apparently, not really.  California is practically ground-zero for both medical and recreational legalization, and their survey actually shows a decrease in teen cannabis use, particularly in the younger grades, from 2013-2015 to 2015-2017 despite medical legalization in 1996, expanded decriminalization in 2011, and recreational legalization via Prop 64 in November 2016.  And while the national Monitoring the Future survey showed a slight increase in teen use in 2017 compared with 2016, it had been previously dropping from 2011 to 2016 despite more and more states liberalizing their pot laws during that time.  Some epidemic, huh?  NOT.

In other words, there is no increase in teen cannabis use that can be unambiguously linked to legalization.  And teen use is still far below its 1978-1979 and 1997 peaks, with no indication that it will even come close.  Thus, another myth bites the dust.  Plus, alcohol, tobacco, and most other substances are at or close to record lows among middle and high schoolers, while the opioid epidemic rages among American adults along with the "pink elephant in the room".  So stop freaking out already, and see the forest for the trees.

UPDATE:  In terms of problematic use of cannabis, a new study finds that the legal status of cannabis is essentially irrelevant.  While that particular study focused on adults, it dovetails rather nicely with another study from last year finding no increase on problematic cannabis use among 12-17 year olds following the passage of legalization.  Thus, it looks like the legalization advocates were indeed correct all along, that legalization would result in modest increases in adult use, and negligible increases (or even decreases) in teen use or abuse at any age.  So put that in your pipe and smoke it!

Why the STATES Act Doesn't Go Far Enough

As far as the prospect of cannabis legalization at the federal level in the USA is concerned, there seems to be both good news and bad news.

The good news is that there is a bill in Congress with strong bipartisan support, known as the STATES Act, that would effectively make it so the federal Controlled Substances Act would no longer apply to cannabis when used, possessed, produced, transported, distributed, or sold in compliance with state laws.  This will be a real game-changer and would essentially put an end to the legal limbo that state-level legalization has been in with respect to federal law (as cannabis has heretofore remained illegal at the federal level as a Schedule I controlled substance).   Cannabusinesses would no longer be in danger of the feds, and would be able to use the banking system just like any other legitimate business. And Trump has said that he is likely to sign it into law. (Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.)

The bad news is that the STATES Act does not go far enough.  First of all, it does not actually remove cannabis from the Controlled Substances Act, or even remove it from the most restrictive category of Schedule I.  Also, the bill leaves some federal restrictions of the CSA intact, most notably the section prohibiting selling or distributing cannabis to people under 21, even if it did comply with state law (except for medical use, which the bill interestingly does not actually define).  While no legalization state currently has an age limit below 21 for recreational use, if any state did lower it below 21 for recreational use, any vendor who sells to people under 21 would thus still technically be breaking federal law.  Ditto for anyone who hires anyone under 18 to work with cannabis in any capacity, sells at truck stops or rest areas, and a few other things as well. 

There are indeed better bills that have been introduced in Congress that do not have these flaws, most notably the Marijuana Justice Act.   That bill removes cannabis from the Controlled Substances Act entirely, expunges federal cannabis convictions, sets up a community reinvestment fund, and would also help to tackle racial and class disparities in state-level cannabis arrests.  Another bill by Senator Chuck Schumer would simply remove cannabis from the list of controlled substances and otherwise leave it up to the states.   Twenty-One Debunked would clearly much rather those kinds of bills get passed, especially the first one.  But in the interim, we will grudgingly support the STATES Act until we can get the Marijuana Justice Act or a similar bill passed, as federal legalization is LONG overdue.

California Dreaming? More Like Disappointing

While Twenty-One Debunked is pleased that the fifth largest economy in the world, California, has fully legalized cannabis for recreational use and even finally has legal weed stores, nearly half a year later the promise of booming tax revenue seems to have been a letdown thus far.  While any cannabis legalization is better than prohibition, and any tax revenue is better than zero, of course, it still seems to have fallen a bit short of the promises.

How so, you ask?  Let us count the ways:

1. Taxes are too high.  When all of the several different taxes are added in, it adds up to as much as 45% of the before-tax price in some municipalities. 
2. That is, of course, if you can even GET any legal weed at all in one's municipality of choice.  Local option means that many towns and cities have chosen to locally ban (or delay indefinitely) the implementation of full retail legalization.
3. And last but not least, the age limit is 21.

Add all these factors up and you have a recipe for a thriving, if smaller, black market for cannabis.  Especially since the original pre-legalization black market was not yet eradicated.  Had the Golden State started out with significantly lower taxes, more municipalities allowing retail cannabis stores, and an age limit of 18 (though the first two factors seem to be the most important), they could have easily eradicated the black market within a few years and then been able to raise the taxes on cannabis to even a much higher level than they are now without the black market coming back anytime soon.  That is basically what Rear Admiral Luther E. Gregory found out after the repeal of alcohol Prohibition in Washington State.  And it worked.

So, in a nutshell, here is how California can solve this problem:

1. Lower the combined taxes on cannabis to no more than $10/ounce (or 10%, whichever is lower) for the first year or two.  And make cannabis retail licenses cheaper than liquor and tobacco licenses.
2. Remove excessively strict levels of local option or at least provide incentives for municipalities to allow retail weed stores.
3. Lower the age limit to 18.  Yesterday.
4. Crack down on any vendors who are caught flouting any of the new laws, and blacklist violators from getting any retail licenses in the future.
5. After the first year or two (or three), jack up the taxes on cannabis to as much as $50/ounce at the cultivation level and additionally 10-15% at the retail level.  Or make the tax proportional to THC content.

Problem solved.  Next.  But of course, that would make far too much sense, right?

Oh, and as long as we are talking about taxes, keep in mind that California's alcohol taxes are below the national average.  Raising those taxes would be a good place to start if they want more revenue quickly.

At least America's friendly neighbor to the north will not be repeating our mistakes.  Taxes in Canada will start out quite low, and the age limit will be 18 or 19 depending on the province.  Watch their economy boom faster than you can say, "O Cannabis!"

Latest 2017 MTF Survey Results

The results of the annual Monitoring the Future survey for 2017 are in.  And here is a brief summary of the results:

• Alcohol use in general as well as "binge" drinking among all three grades (8, 10, 12) remains at the same record-low levels as 2016.  
• Tobacco use overall in all grades continued its long decline to a new record low in 2017, particularly for cigarettes, though vaping (e-cigarettes) did increase slightly in 2017 after decreasing a bit in 2016.
• Cannabis use went up slightly in 2017 from 2016 after declining for several years, though generally still remains below 2012 levels, and of course far below the peaks in both 1979 and 1997.  This dovetails with another recent study of legalization states which found no significant increase in teen use post-legalization.
• Opioids, including heroin, remain at very low levels among teens, while the opioid epidemic continues largely unabated among adults.
• Inhalant use went up slightly among 8th graders after a long decline, though still remains at low levels.
• All other substances decreased or saw no significant change either way in 2017.

So what can we conclude from all of this?  First, we can conclude that cannabis legalization did not increase teen cannabis use as the fearmongers claimed it would. Nor did the use of other substances increase as the "gateway" theory would have predicted--in fact, most other substances decreased.   So much for that theory.  Second, it would appear that e-cigarette vaping is to some extent displacing cigarette smoking, rather than exerting a "gateway" effect as was often feared--smoking would have increased along with vaping if those fears were true, and in fact the opposite has occured instead.  Which any way you slice it, is ultimately a net win for public health even if vaping is not completely harmless.  In fact, the drop in cigarette smoking was much faster from 2013-2015 than it was in the years before or since, coinciding with the period of greatest increase in e-cigarette use.   And finally, we can conclude that the kids are (mostly) alright, at least compared to the many adults around them who continue to drink themselves to death and/or rot and rust in opioids.

O Cannabis!

The Government of Canada under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau still plans to legalize cannabis nationwide.  Though not finalized yet, it is tentatively set to go into effect sometime in July 2018.  And various provinces are already preparing for it.

As for what the age limits will be, that will be up to the provinces to decide.  The federal age limit will likely be 18, and most provinces have tentatively decided that their own cannabis smoking ages will match their drinking ages (currently 18 in Alberta, Manitoba, and Quebec, 19 elsewhere).  Thus, the age limit for cannabis in Canada will most likely end up being 18 or 19, depending on the province.

For the record, Twenty-One Debunked believes that the age limits for alcohol, tobacco and cannabis should be 18, or at least no higher than that.  We in the USA (where in the growing number of states in which cannabis is legal, the age limit is 21) can really learn a lot from our friendly neighbor to the north!

How to Quash a Black Market in Five Easy Steps

A black market (or underground economy) typically occurs when the legitimate market for a particular good or service is either nonexistent, out of reach, or otherwise far too insufficient to meet the demand for that good or service.  Black markets are by definition illegal to one degree or another, while informal markets that are technically legal or quasi-legal are known as gray markets.   While the usual proximal cause for a black market is prohibition of a good or service (and thus no legitimate market existing), a black market can also occur (albeit to a much lesser extent) when the taxes and/or other government fees on or surrounding the product or activity are excessively high relative to what consumers are willing to pay (and relative to the informal economy).  Sometimes taxes can be so high so as to be considered "prohibition by price", though the relative price difference is typically far more important than the absolute price.

Twenty-One Debunked believes in raising alcohol taxes significantly in conjunction with lowering the drinking age to 18.  The level we suggest ($24/proof-gallon, equalized for all alcoholic beverages), though significantly higher than now, would still be too low to encourage a significant amount of moonshining and bootlegging.  But what about cannabis, which is currently being legalized in more and more states, many of which started out with fairly high taxes and/or licensing fees?  Though a positive development overall, in some of such places, the black market still exists to one degree or another, albeit much less so than when cannabis was illegal.  And of course we all know that places like NYC with extremely high cigarette taxes have their share of black markets in untaxed, out of state, counterfeit, and/or stolen cigarettes as well.  So how does one solve such a problem?

Enter Rear Admiral Luther E. Gregory.  In the 1930s, Prohibition was repealed, and Washington State along with other states were now faced with the task of shutting down the well-established bootleggers and speakeasies that persisted even after Repeal.   Admiral Gregory was asked to head the state's Liquor Control Board, and given carte blanche to come up with a solution, one which worked surprisingly well in fact:

1. End Prohibition, first of all.
2. Give amnesty and issue licenses to anyone willing to play by the state's rules, whether former bootleggers or otherwise.
3. Set the alcohol taxes as low as possible at first, the lowest in the country in fact.
4. Punish sellers who don't play by the rules, with an iron fist--i.e. blacklisting scofflaws from ever selling liquor in the state again.
5. After holding down alcohol taxes for three years, abruptly raise taxes to the point where they're now the highest in the nation.

Problem solved.  The legal market proved to be competitive with what was left of the black market, and drinkers preferred the former over the latter, driving the latter out of business.  And the black market never came back even after raising taxes dramatically.  Looking back, it should have been so obvious indeed.

Substitute "cannabis" for "alcohol", and there is no reason why this strategy would not work in this day and age.  And instead of holding down taxes for three years, merely one year should be sufficient to get the same results, even if the hike is automatically scheduled.  Doing so would minimize the greatest risk of the strategy, namely, that the fledgling legal cannabis industry would then become so powerful that they would resist and successfully quash any attempt to raise taxes in the future.  They would not become that powerful in just one year, and probably not for several years, but the black market could be easily quashed in that timeframe all the same.

As for cigarette taxes, both NYC and NYS should implement this strategy as well.  And of course, the low-tax states such as Virginia should also raise their cigarette taxes (within reason) so as to not be such a source state for cigarette smuggling to other states.  And of course, lower NYC's age limit back to 18 as well.  Same for cannabis in legalized states as well.

In fact, this strategy would work for just about any type of black market.  That's because it is based on the hard facts of economics, not half-baked wishful thinking.  Unlike prohibition or unrealistically high age limits, taxes are not a "blunt" policy instrument, but rather a razor-sharp, double-edged sword.

So what are we waiting for?

Legalization of Cannabis Not A Disaster After All

Five years after cannabis was first legalized for recreational use in Colorado and Washington in late 2012, over three years after full implementation of such legalization in 2014, and several more states since then, what can we conclude from the data so far?  The best evidence shows that such legalization was NOT a disaster after all, the fears were ridiculously overblown, and if anything legalization turned out to be a win-win-win situation for everyone but the crooks, creeps, cops, and cronies.  It saved a ton of money on law enforcement and related costs, brought in major tax revenue, and the supposedly large social costs of legalization that the naysayers feared still have not panned out even several years later.  And thus, no good reason for cannabis to remain illegal anywhere else at this point.

And now that California Dreaming has finally become a reality in a critical number of states, Twenty-One Debunked will become that much more aggressive in advocating that the age limits for cannabis in legaliztion jurisdictions be lowered to 18 going forward.  While we very grudgingly supported legalization initiatives with an age limit of 21 while they were being debated and voted on in the name of pragmatism, now that the proverbial dam has broke it is time to take on the age limit issue with at least the same tenacity that we have shown with alcohol.

To all of those who still support cannabis prohibition:  how does it feel to be on the wrong side of history?  Because we wouldn't know anything about that.