Sunday, May 18, 2025

Cutting The Gordian Knot For Good

The Gordian Knot is an ancient and timeless metaphor that still has just as much relevance today.  Per Wikipedia:

The cutting of the Gordian Knot is an Ancient Greek legend associated with Alexander the Great in Gordium in Phrygia, regarding a complex knot that tied an oxcart. Reputedly, whoever could untie it would be destined to rule all of Asia. In 333 BCE, Alexander was challenged to untie the knot. Instead of untangling it laboriously as expected, he dramatically cut through it with his sword. This is used as a metaphor for using brute force to solve a seemingly-intractable problem.

Does that sound familiar?  It certainly should.  What do the 21 drinking age and so many other types of illiberal and abominable policies (i.e. endless wars, creeping tyranny, voter suppression, revoking women's reproductive rights, mass deportations, and the all-out assault on the human rights of youth and other marginalized groups) all have in common?  They all revolve around, and are both caused and effected by, the illusion of control.  Per Wikipedia:

The illusion of control is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events. It was named by U.S. psychologist Ellen Langer and is thought to influence gambling behavior and belief in the paranormal.  Along with illusory superiority and optimism bias, the illusion of control is one of the positive illusions.

And there you have it.  The Gordian Knot in this case is the illusion of control.  And how to cut it?  Simply abandon that illusion, along with (especially) the desire for such control over others as well, and don't look back.  Problem solved.

For example, whenever the fearmongers cite scary-sounding statistics and studies in their zeal to make a case for more and more restrictions on young people, the best way to respond is:  "Yeah, so?  And your point is?"

And now we can see why Denmark is one of the happiest countries on Earth.  At least a major part of the reason has to be because they have largely abandoned the illusion of control long ago.  After all, they are the only Nordic country where the Temperance movement never really caught on.

(Which is probably why when anyone shoves seemingly scary statistics and studies about their country's world-leading and often technically hazardous drinking habits in their face, for all ages and especially among young people, they likely respond with a "Yeah, so?  And your point is?")

In other words, once enough people realize that it is neither possible nor desirable for people to use public policy to have anywhere near as much control over other people as they think, peace and liberty shall finally return to the land for good.  That said, convincing that many people is a LOT easier said than done.  After all, it is far easier to fool people than it is to convince people that they have been fooled.

Until then, the Law of Eristic Escalation shall reign supreme.  That is, imposition of order = escalation of chaos.

It is long past time to stop chasing the illusion of control.  It's like "chasing the dragon":  you're never gonna catch it, and you end up doing far more harm than good by even trying.

QED

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Alternate History Of The Legal Drinking Age (Part Deux)

In a previous post, we explored what an alternate timeline would have looked like if the drinking age was NOT raised to 21 in the 1980s.  The most critical point in preventing that from happening in that timeline was Michigan (the first domino) NOT raising it to 21 in 1978.  And the result?  The Overton window did NOT shift in favor of 21, and with most states choosing to keep it at 18 or 19 depending on the state, the feds did NOT force or coerced and states to raise their drinking ages.  If anything, the feds used positive reinforcement to get the Dirty Dozen states that were 21 since the 1930s and 1940s to lower their drinking ages, and by the end of the 1980s, all states except Utah were either 18 or 19 depending on the state.  Some states had a split 18/19 age limit for different beverage types (i.e. beer vs wine vs liquor), while some others had a split 18/19 age limit for on-premise vs. off-premise purchases, or more often, limits on quantities and/or hours of sale for off-premise purchases if under 19, but otherwise set at 18.  The most common was states who set it at 18 across the board, but allowed "local option" to set it 19 for off-premise purchases and/or quantity limits, though some of the 18 states chose to preempt even that on principle.  (The higher age limit in states with graduated age limits was often called the "No Trickle-Down Law" or the "No Gray Market Law".)

A few states chose to keep it (or raise it to) 20 or 21 for very large quantities (kegs or multiple cases or multiple handles bought in the same transaction or same day), but those states were in the minority.

Even Utah, the strictest state of all for obvious reasons, held their collective noses and grudgingly lowered their drinking age to 19 for weak beer and 21 for everything else by 1990, and then briefly 19/20, then finally a flat 19 across the board (except kegs) sometime during the 1990s.  Though they still retained their other bizarre and Byzantine liquor laws all the same in both timelines, of course.

So what would the 2020s look like in greater detail in this alternate timeline of events?
  • Tobacco and nicotine age limits would remain at 18 in all but a very few states which are 19.  But many states choose to put a reasonable cap on the quantities that 18-20 year olds can purchase (per transaction, and only one transaction per day), to discourage them from giving or selling to their friends under 18.
  • Cannabis is legalized in mostly the same states in both timelines (though a somewhat greater number of states do so in the alternate timeline), but all who do so choose 18 or 19 as their age limits, nearly always matching their drinking and smoking ages.  And like tobacco, most states choose to limit the quantities that 18-20 year olds can purchase per transaction and per day, and for the same reasons.
  • And the federal government FINALLY gets around to legalizing it as well by 2024 if not sooner, with a federal age limit of 18 for cannabis sales (but no limit for use or possession) to match the tobacco sales age limit that still remains in effect.  The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Cannabis, Firearms, and Explosives and the FDA both have joint (pun intended) authority to enforce it on vendors.
  • Alcohol taxes (and prices) in the USA are somewhat higher as a rule in the alternate timeline, though still not nearly as high as in Canada.  Thus, in nearly all states, the typical six-pack of beer costs about a dollar or two more in 2025 dollars.  Likewise, the typical gallon of wine and the average liter of hard liquor also costs an extra dollar or two more in the alternate timeline.  Some states also experiment with "minimum unit pricing" (MUP) as well, but most states still only prohibit selling "below cost."
  • In 2019, instead of raising the tobacco sales age to 21, which there is virtually zero appetite for, the feds instead decided to implement the Mark Kleiman's idea to raise the federal cigarette and other combustible tobacco taxes to $5/pack or the equivalent amount of tobacco, BUT allowing states and localities to fully rebate it against their own tobacco-specific taxes.  Result?  Low-tax states states raise and largely equalize their taxes with high-tax ones, smoking rates plummet for all ages (especially among youth), and the interstate smuggling black market dries up.  Win-win-win for everyone except Big Tobacco and their sycophantic lackeys.
  • Vaping products have their nicotine levels capped by the FDA at the same levels as the EU, UK, and Israel, most flavors are banned, and ingredients are better regulated as of 2019.  The "vaping epidemic" slows to a crawl.
  • The drinking age of 18 (or 19, or split) is very strictly enforced on vendors and servers.  For young drinkers themselves, underage drinking is illegal but decriminalized in nearly every state by now.  It is typically treated like a minor traffic violation or parking ticket.
  • While a few bars and clubs here and there set their own age limits of 21 or higher to enter, such examples remain few and far between, and are looked upon with disdain by most Americans. And for places like Dave and Busters, or really any other businesses for that matter, it would literally never even occur to the managers to set any age limits higher than 18, if even that high at all.  Such baseless age segregation remains well outside the Overton window in the alternate timeline.
  • Without that specious quick fix in their toolkit, they instead implement a zero tolerance policy for fighting, vandalism, theft, and disorderly conduct of any kind, strictly enforced.  And they are NOT KIDDING!
  • It remains rare for any hotels or motels to refuse anyone over 18 due to age.  Ditto for most cruise ships as well.
  • Drunk driving is taken very, very seriously for people of all ages, and increasingly tough laws are increasingly strictly enforced.  The same goes for drug-impaired driving as well.
  • Most states by now set the BAC limit at 0.05%, but anything below 0.08% is usually a traffic violation instead of a criminal offense.  (New York only has to add two words, per se, to their existing but currently underappreciated 0.05% law, by the way.).  And Zero Tolerance laws exist as well, albeit usually based on how long one has had their driver's license rather than age alone.  And for ALL drivers, the limit is now 0.00% if one is driving recklessly.
  • Social host liability laws, while existing in some places in limited form, never really seem to catch on in most of the USA.  Most people think such laws are insane and un-American in the alternate timeline.
  • The combination of the lack of a 21 drinking age and lack of social host laws results in somewhat more in-person socialization between young people, and between generations, in the alternate timeline compared to the current timeline.
  • Block parties make a comeback, or more accurately, never really went away.
  • America is still very much a car culture either way, but "safe rider" programs are far more common in the alternate timeline.  And slowly but surely, at least some improvements are finally being made in public transportation.
  • America's drinking culture still leaves a lot to be desired, much like in the rest of the Anglosphere, but over time it becomes at least somewhat healthier and less extreme overall.
  • Certainly the college drinking culture is much safer and healthier in the alternate timeline, even though it is often just as wild.  The wildness peaks during and shortly after "frosh week" at the beginning of freshman year, getting it largely out of their systems early on, after which students tend to buckle down and study a bit more and keep the partying in it's proper place in their list of priorities, certainly by the time midterms roll around. Especially since all of the major universities have finally decided to tackle the grade inflation that had been building for decades.
  • Many colleges and universities even have bars and pubs on campus, sometimes even in the dorms.
  • Fraternities and sororities, while they still exist, largely wither on the vine as they have become increasingly obsolete, except for the more academic and service-oriented ones.
  • High school, contrary to what some may fear, is NOT radically different between the two timelines, and in many ways improved.  Drinking and "binge" drinking rates are both at most a couple of percentage points higher (if at all) in the alternate timeline for grade 12, mostly due to greater honesty in surveys (which are always taken with at least a grain of salt in the alternate timeline).  They may drink slightly more frequently, but the less they do when they do on average.  For earlier grades, the difference is practically negligible.  And differences in cannabis use rates are also practically negligible in all grades, while tobacco and nicotine use rates are actually lower in the alternate timeline.
  • And no, there is NO practical difference in "liquid lunches" among high school students between the two timelines.  By now, the drinking age (regardless of what it is) is VERY strictly enforced in that regard, and K-12 school grounds are strictly "dry" for all ages.  (This is still the USA, not Denmark, after all!)
  • Unfortunately, the COVID pandemic still happens, and so do the lockdowns and related restrictions.  But such restrictions generally tend to be somewhat briefer and somewhat less extreme in the alternate timeline, as America has still not been quite as affected by "safetyism" as in the current timeline.  Not much change either way in the case and death rates regardless, though.  Turns out, as the saying goes, virus gonna virus, and humans gonna human.  
  • And in the alternate timeline, since the 1980s we as a society have clearly fallen out of love with the "illusion of control", to the extent that we ever even really loved it at all.  That has got to be the single most defining feature that differs between the two timelines.
  • Traffic death rates, both alcohol-related and otherwise, are actually rather lower in the alternate timeline compared to the current one, both among youth and adults alike.  And the relative decrease in feelings of alienation and loneliness among younger people leads to at least somewhat fewer suicides and mass shootings as well.
  • While Donald Trump still most likely gets elected President in 2016*, in 2024 he ends up narrowly losing to Kamala Harris instead of narrowly winning, both by popular vote as well as the Electoral College.  That is because America's loneliness epidemic and feelings of alienation among younger Americans, especially young men, while still persistent, is at least marginally less pronounced in the alternate timeline, and the fence-sitters were less likely to be swayed towards Trump.  (And Trump's second failed coup attempt in January 2025 fails even more than it did on January 6th, 2021, as he is largely greeted by crickets this time around, and he ultimately ends up in prison where he belongs.)  It turns out the age-segregation effects of the 21 drinking age (and its ancillary laws and policies) in the current timeline were much more far-reaching than anyone could have predicted.  
  • And the rest is history.  And the beat goes on.....
And America shall once again become the "shining city on a hill" that we were meant to be all along.  An America to be truly proud of.  If only we were in that alternate timeline.

*P.S.  Ideally the DNC would NOT have totally screwed over Bernie Sanders, and he could have beaten Trump in 2016.  That, and the Democratic Party establishment would not have eaten its young either.   But that, of course, would have probably been yet another alternate timeline.

Saturday, May 10, 2025

About That Finland Study (Part Deux)

(This is a continuation of a previous article from 2023.)

Another recent Finland study this year found that the higher alcohol tax rates and alcohol advertising restrictions implemented in the mid-1970s in that country had a much larger long-term beneficial effect on the cohorts who were under 18 at the time compared to those who where already over 18 by then.  The study authors of course give more credit to the advertising restrictions than the tax hikes, but historically speaking, most research would argue the reverse, namely that the tax/price hikes would have had a larger effect than the advertising restrictions.

The key takeaway:  if alcohol taxes/prices are high enough, then the legal drinking age essentially becomes irrelevant.

Thursday, May 8, 2025

Tobacco 21 Laws STILL Don't Work

More evidence that Tobacco 21 laws aren't working:  while survey results seem to show that smoking rates have fallen among young adults some Tobacco 21 laws were passed, biomarkers say otherwise, according to a recent study.  Turns out, while more young people are hiding the fact that they smoke because it's now illegal, they are still smoking.  Gee, who woulda think it?  In other news, water is wet, and the sun rises in the east and sets in the west.

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Safety Third

We live in a culture where "Safety First" is increasingly taken for granted, and has been since roughly the mid-1980s following a series of moral panics and zealotry in general.  While it is generally a good thing that safety has largely improved since then (prior to that, Americans were really quite cavalier overall, and it really showed in the statistics across multiple domains), there can also be too much of a good thing as well.  

Most people at least intuitively know this on some level, and that's why even the most die-hard safety zealots seldom (if ever) practice what they preach in all areas of life all of the time, at least not for very long.  Even they still conveniently carve out selective and arbitrary exceptions for themselves and their own chosen "guilty" pleasures and activities.  

From the abomination that is the 21 drinking age to the War on (people who use a few particular) Drugs to increasingly stringent rules and heavy monitoring of youth to lack of free play among children to prison-like schools to actual mass incarceration to the sexual counterrevolution dressed up as "culture wars" to the ever-encroaching nanny state to finally the ultimate culmination of safety zealotry, the pandemic lockdowns and related restrictions, we have clearly been sold a bill of goods in that regard.  And yet paradoxically, actual health safety statistics from life expectancy to violent deaths to traffic casualties have in the USA actually lagged behind peer nations, often well behind.  Thus, it's long past time to take a fresh approach.

We call that approach "Safety Third".  And it's really not an entirely novel idea, having been promoted in some form by diverse folks from "Dirty Jobs" pundit Mike Rowe (largely right-wing) all the way to contemporary philosopher Charles Eisenstein (largely left-wing).  That does NOT at all mean that safety is trivial or should be disregarded as such, far from it.  We do value safety as important, of course, but not THE most important thing, let alone the ultimate end-all-be-all of human flourishing.  

So if safety is third on the list of priorities, what are first and second then?  For example, Charles Eisenstein says "giving and receiving", not necessarily in that order.  That makes sense, if a bit vague perhaps, but we at the TSAP and Twenty-One Debunked would alternatively answer, "liberty and justice for all", not necessarily in that order.  Anything short of that is un-American.

Even the biggest safety zealots have to concede that.  For example, we could theoretically save even more lives by making the speed limit 21 and the drinking age 55 rather than the other way around, but we don't and never will.  Because deep down, we all know on some level that there are other important considerations as well in any free society worthy of the name.

It was indeed one of our Founding Fathers, Benjamin Franklin, who said, "Whoever gives up essential liberty for a little temporary safety, deserves neither and loses both."  After all, safety is a great servant, but a terrible master.  We would be wise to recognize that, in all areas of life.

At The End Of The Day, We're Not Japan

There are a lot of wonderful things about Japan.  The culture, the food, the technology, the games, the general lack of street crime and violence, and so on are all great.  But at the same time, there are some things about Japan that would absolutely NEVER fly in America, and for very good reason.

Take their extremely strict (even by global standards, not just by American standards!) approach to DUI, for example:
  • The BAC limit for driving is a mere 0.03%, where as little as ONE standard drink will almost certainly put you over the limit for at least an hour or two (effectively zero tolerance).  For ALL ages, period.
  • Penalties can range from up to three years in prison, a $5000 fine, and losing one's license for at least three months (which wouldn't matter if one is locked up for three years).  And you will almost certainly lose your job as well.  Again, for as little as ONE drink before driving.  OUCH!
  • And if you have the audacity to exceed 0.04% when driving, which translates to one or at most two standard drinks in a couple hours or so (depending on body weight, gender, time, pace of drinking, food, etc.), it gets even worse still:  five years in prison, a $10,000 fine, and cancellation of one's license altogether.  DOUBLE OUCH!
  • Above that second threshold, though, there are no further graduated penalties at the margin:  driving after one or two drinks is treated the same as driving after ten.
  • But wait, there's more!  As if that wasn't bad enough, it's NOT only the driver who is on the hook for such harsh penalties.  Anyone who allows someone to get behind the wheel after drinking even ONE drink, including the passengers and anyone who served the driver, such as in restaurants and bars, and anyone who provided a vehicle to the driver, will also face roughly the same penalties.  It is collective responsibility taken to the extreme, basically.
  • Oh, and this also applies to bicycle riders as well, by the way.  (But hey, at least they don't apply it to pedestrians though, as there are no laws against drunk walking or public drunkenness there.)
  • And this is all very strictly enforced, of course.
In a word, WOW!  They are so strict that bars and restaurants will simply not let you order even ONE beer unless they confirm with you first that you will not be driving home.  They even have "skipper" taxi services for hire with two drivers:  one to drive your vehicle home, and one to pick up the first driver afterwards.  (Or sometimes just one driver with an e-bike to ride themself back, and then onto the next customer.) And the popularity of non-alcoholic beers and wines has predictably skyrocketed in Japan since these laws were passed in 2002 and 2007.  

And yes, it is true that Japan saw alcohol-related traffic fatalities drop by over half instantly, and by up to 80 percent over the next few years following the passage of these super-strict laws.  Significant decreases in such casualties were seen after each of both the 2002 (i.e. lowering the BAC limit from 0.05% to 0.03%) and 2007 (penalties for passengers, servers, and vehicle lenders) law changes, and both also involved a great stiffening of DUI penalties in general, as opposed to merely making the law harder to satisfy.  So on its own terms, it seems to have worked wonders, at least on the surface.  But at what cost, really?  

Baby, meet bathwater, basically.

Try to implement such a draconian law over here in the USA today, especially the part about punishing servers and passengers, and the very best you could hope for in terms of unintended consequences in our culture would be a deep-freeze chilling effect on what is left of in-person socialization, and it goes downhill from there.  

In any case, such a law is WAY outside of the Overton window for an individualistic society (not to mention a car culture with vast rural areas!) like the USA, so the odds of this ever happening here are quite slim to none indeed.  It is truly un-American, to say the least.  But both less extreme (in terms of criminal penalties) AND more extreme (in terms of lower BAC limits) versions of this have of course been applied to Americans under the arbitrary age of 21 for decades now:  just think of zero tolerance laws and social host liability laws.  And internal possession laws, constructive possession laws, use and lose laws, keg registration, and other face-saving ancillary laws to prop up the failed experiment that is the 21 drinking age as well.

Oh, and even with this law in place for two decades, Japan STILL has stubbornly refused to lower the drinking age to 18.  Even after lowering the age of majority from 20 to 18 effective in 2022, they still kept the drinking age and smoking age at 20, because reasons.  And that whole thing about easily getting beer and sake in vending machines (!) for the past few decades or so?  Well, now the vending machines will need to see (and scan) some ID, at least most of them, apparently, according to Reddit.

That said, Japan is actually surprisingly lax in general by American standards about things like public drunkenness (as long as one is not being disorderly, of course), drinking in public, drinking on public transportation, and even drinking in a car (!) as long as the driver isn't drinking.  And alcohol is available almost everywhere, from convenience stores to supermarkets to vending machines and even in fast-food restaurants as well. That's largely because no liquor licenses are required for serve alcohol on-premise in Japan, and even though such licenses are required to sell alcohol for off-premise, they aren't exactly hard to get.

Twenty-One Debunked strongly opposes drunk driving, of course, but still does NOT support such an extreme approach to it like they have in Japan.  Rather, we support a graduated BAC limit of 0.05% for administrative-only penalties, 0.08% for criminal penalties, 0.15% for "aggravated DUI" criminal penalties, and a limit of 0.00% if driving recklessly, and grudgingly support 0.00-0.02% zero tolerance for young and novice drivers, ideally based on number of years of licensed driving rather than age alone.  Riding a bicycle under the influence should be a traffic violation, not a crime.  (Walking under the influence should not be illegal at all in itself, of course.)  And we believe in individual responsibility, thus the only people punished should be the drinking drivers themselves, not the passengers or servers, as that would be un-American.  Thus, we also believe that dram shop and social host liability laws should be repealed, or at least greatly watered down, as far as consenting adults are concerned.

Crack down HARD on actual drunk drivers, with sobriety checkpoints (provided that they follow the Constitution, of course) and especially roving and saturation patrols as well.  "Rovin' Eyes....are watching YOU!!!"

(Contrary to what some believe, something approximating de facto "random breath testing" actually IS possible in the USA, they just have to be more creative about it.)

Repeat or high-BAC offenders, and especially those driving recklessly as well, should lose their licenses immediately and permanently, and go directly to jail.  Do NOT pass GO.  Do NOT collect $200.  Do the crime, do the time.  

Even first offenders (who have likely been doing it hundreds of times before getting caught the first time) should still be punished harshly enough to be a very serious deterrent as well.  We also need to expand the use of ignition interlocks for ALL DUI offenders, as well as things like DUI Courts and South Dakota's highly successful 24/7 Program.

Kill or maim someone else as a result of driving under the influence?  Throw away the key!  NO MERCY!

And yes, the "skipper" taxi and rideshare services are an excellent idea that should be implemented everywhere, as well as also extending the hours of public transportation where it currently exists.  There is no reason to make the perfect the enemy of the good, after all.  And that will also help the hospitality industry survive as well.

To Japan's credit, they have proven that it is indeed possible to completely separate drinking from driving.  We certainly have to give them kudos for that, no doubt.

But criminalizing and jailing experienced and responsible adult drivers (let alone those around them too!) for having ONE glass of wine or beer with dinner?  That is simply a bridge too far for any free society that has even the slightest hint of a car culture.  That's not public safety, that's lunacy!

(And as Japan has shown, it's NOT like even that will be enough to appease the ageists into lowering the drinking age, as there is really NO appeasing anyone like that.  Meanwhile, far less strict countries, even with car cultures, still have no qualms about letting 18 year olds drink, as long as the don't drive under the influence of course.)

And of course, we strongly believe that the drinking age should be lowered to 18, period, and yesterday is NOT soon enough.  Let America be America again.  If you're old enough to go to war, you're old enough to go to the bar.  'Nuff said.

After all, at the end of the day, we're NOT Japan.  We never were, and we never will be either.