Why Are Traffic Deaths on the Rise? (Part Deux)

After decades of a massive secular decline in traffic deaths, reaching an all-time record low in 2014 per VMT as well as per capita, such deaths have been creeping up again since then.  2015 and 2016 both saw national increases in fatalities, and while 2017 saw a slight decrease from 2016, the number of deaths still remains stubbornly higher than it was before the increase.  In fact, 2015-2016 is the largest two-year jump in deaths in half a century.  So why has progress stalled and begun to reverse in recent years?

The list of most likely factors includes the following:

• Lower gas prices
• An improving economy since the Great Recession
• An increase in distracted driving (and walking), primarly from smartphones
• Higher speed limits than in the past 
• Infrastructure in disrepair from decades of gross neglect
• Slacking on traffic safety improvements in general since the early 1990s

All of these things are true, and all of them are known to be correlated with traffic casualties.  Other factors are involved as well, to be sure, but these are the big ones.  The first three are the proximal causes, while the last three are the more distal ones.

Of course, drunk driving and not wearing seatbelts remain rather persistent contributors to the number of these deaths, but such behaviors remain far lower than they were decades ago.  Nevertheless, they remain at dangerous levels, and it is apparently a bit too early to feel safe in that regard.  And with real alcohol prices at record lows today and alcohol consumption on the rise for the past two decades, there is definitely a cause for concern in that regard.

What about drugged driving, then?  Is it really on the rise, like some have claimed?  Perhaps, but it may simply be that we are getting better at detecting it rather than an actual increase.  Or perhaps it is a bit of both.  The opioid epidemic certainly doesn't make the roads any safer, with such doped-up drivers nodding off behind the wheel.  And contrary to the anti-legalization folks, there does not seem to be any firm link between cannabis legalization and traffic fatalities.  In fact, some studies have found decreases in highway deaths following cannabis liberalization, due to an apparent substitution with alcohol (and perhaps opioids as well).  As for the specious claim of preliminary evidence linking the increase in pedestrian deaths in some legalization states in the first half of 2017 with legalization, that does not really pass the smell test because 1) not all legalization states even saw any increase during that time, 2) small numbers tend to fluctuate wildly, and 3) why would cannabis legalization only affect pedestrian deaths and not other traffic deaths during that time as well?

One thing is for sure.  Whether this spike in traffic casualties is a short-term blip or the start of a longer-term trend (which will only be known in hindsight), it should be a major wake-up call that we clearly cannot afford to be complacent about it any longer.  The USA has seriously lagged behind other industrialized countries for decades in terms of progress on traffic safety (all of which have lower drinking ages than we do, interestingly enough), and we need to catch up, yesterday.  That includes the safety of pedestrians and cyclists as well, who have borne the brunt of the recent increase in traffic deaths.  And even when vehicle miles (or kilometers) traveled are taken into account, the USA still has either higher fatality rates and/or has seen less progress since the 1980s compared with nearly all other industrialized (and even semi-industrialized) nations.

A short list of things we can do include:

• Crack down on drunk driving, drug-impaired driving, reckless driving, and distracted driving--yesterday.
• Stiffen the penalties for hit-and-run crashes--yesterday.
• Reduce speed limits, especially on side streets, arterials, and smaller highways--yesterday.
• Install speed cameras and red-light cameras in more places (but be sure to also lengthen the yellow lights and double-reds to prevent it from backfiring with more rear-enders).
• Raise the gas tax by a penny per week until it is at least 50 cents/gal higher than now ("A Penny for Progress") and/or implement a carbon tax-and-dividend scheme.
• Raise the alcohol taxes significantly as well (note how those taxes have been lagging behind inflation for decades in most states).
• Design roads/streets to be more pedestrian-friendly and bike-friendly as well.
• Invest more in public transportation, as well as "safe-rider" programs as well. 
• Rebuild America's neglected and crumbling infrastructure, generating millions of new jobs in the process.
• And last but not least, make the road test harder like it is in many other countries, and make driver's licenses easier to lose for serious and/or repeated traffic violations.

After all, if it saves even ONE life, it's worth it, right?  Thought so.  So what are we waiting for?