That is what at least some segments of the alcohol industry increasingly feel about cannabis as it becomes more and more mainstream. For decades, much of the industry has generally opposed cannabis, and legalization at first seemed to be taking a bite out of the demand for booze. But now, they are catching on and want a piece of the action now, knowing what an unstoppable juggernaut that legalized cannabis has become. And this is just the beginning.
Among Millennials, alcohol is retreating while cannabis is advancing, a trend that shows no signs of stopping anytime soon. Thus, some alcohol companies, particularly the craft brewer Lagunitas (itself owned by the Dutch multinational beer company Heineken) are now starting to market cannabis-infused beverages in California and other states where recreational cannabis is legal. Meanwhile, the more conservative segments of the alcohol industry, who are loath to associate themselves with something as controversial as cannabis, are likely going to be left behind as a result.
UPDATE: As of October 2018, it also appears that after sitting on the sidelines for years now, Big Tobacco giant Altria Group (formerly known as Philip Morris) is considering a stake in Aphria, a Canadian cannabis company. We strongly urge the cannabis industry to refrain from making such a Faustian bargain.
Sunday, October 21, 2018
Friday, October 19, 2018
Latest Teen Brain and Cannabis Study More Smoke than Fire
The scary-sounding headline from a few weeks ago in USA Today reads, "Marijuana caused more damage to teens' brains than alcohol, study finds". Yes, there was a study that claimed to find such results, but there is less here than meets the eye.
In other words, there's more smoke than fire.
The actual study itself is predictably behind a paywall, and we will not dignify such questionable research by paying for it, so we couldn't find the actual numbers and thus could not quantify any effect sizes or how long the reported effects lasted, but the abstract and several news articles summarize qualitatively the main findings. The study, which involved nearly 4000 students from 7th through 10th grades in the greater Montreal area, longitudinally following them for those four years, asking questions about both alcohol and cannanis use and giving tests on memory and response inhibition. Statistically significant correlations were noted between increased cannabis use and reduced performance on such tests, while interestingly for alcohol such correlations failed to reach statistical significance.
Again, no information about the size of such reported effects, and guess what? SIZE MATTERS. And so does duration. Also, it say nothing about any such correlations beyond 10th grade, nor clearly distinguish between lighter and heavier use. (The article did note that there were many more daily users of cannabis than alcohol, despite the fact that there were many more drinkers than tokers overall the sample.) And it is very curious that the typically pro-21 mainstream scientific community are so willing to practically exonerate alcohol in such a study of teens--or perhaps they are simply alcohol supremacists. And while the sample size and longitudinal nature of this study puts it head and shoulders about most other studies on the matter, given the aforementioned concerns it should still be viewed with caution in terms of causation.
Additionally, the study seems to be silent on the real "dark horse of drugs"--tobacco/nicotine. Nicotine is a known neurotoxin, particularly during early adolescence, and is far more correlated with cannabis than alcohol use. Thus, at least some of the reported effects in the study could in fact be due to tobacco, and/or perhaps other substances as well.
Keep in mind that the infamous 2012 study that reportedly found persistently reduced IQs among adults who used cannabis before age 18, was debunked by 2014 study that found no correlation between adolescent cannabis use and IQ or exam performance (though heavy use beginning before age 15 was associated with slightly poorer exam results at age 16). This latter study did control for tobacco, alcohol, and a host of other factors. So it is very likely that soon another study will come a long and refute the first study discussed in this article, or perhaps find that any such effects are limited to the heaviest users, particularly those who began before age 15 or 16. In fact, a 2018 systematic review of 69 studies of adolescent and young adult cannabis use and cognitive functioning found that reported adverse effects were much smaller in size than the prohibitionists like to claim, and generally tend to be temporary rather than permanent, even for frequent and/or heavy use. And interestingly, no correlation with age of onset, though the mean age of study participants in these 69 studies was significantly higher than in the aforementioned Montreal study.
Other studies as well cast serious doubt on the scary claims of cannabis neurotoxicity as well, and most studies find weed safer than alcohol.
So what is the best takeaway from such studies? It would seem that while occasional or moderate cannabis use is basically a non-problem, heavy and/or daily/near-daily use (unless medically necessary) should probably be avoided at any age, but particularly for people under 18 and especially under 15. And while delaying the onset of use, or at least regular use, for as long as possible is probably wise for people under 18 and especially under 15, there is no hard scientific evidence that cannabis is any more harmful at 18 than it is as 21, 25, or even 30 for that matter. Thus, there is no good reason to keep it illegal or set the age limit any higher than 18. And even for people well under 18, the criminal law is still far too harsh a tool to apply to something like this that more likely than not turns out to be a non-problem.
In other words, there's more smoke than fire.
The actual study itself is predictably behind a paywall, and we will not dignify such questionable research by paying for it, so we couldn't find the actual numbers and thus could not quantify any effect sizes or how long the reported effects lasted, but the abstract and several news articles summarize qualitatively the main findings. The study, which involved nearly 4000 students from 7th through 10th grades in the greater Montreal area, longitudinally following them for those four years, asking questions about both alcohol and cannanis use and giving tests on memory and response inhibition. Statistically significant correlations were noted between increased cannabis use and reduced performance on such tests, while interestingly for alcohol such correlations failed to reach statistical significance.
Again, no information about the size of such reported effects, and guess what? SIZE MATTERS. And so does duration. Also, it say nothing about any such correlations beyond 10th grade, nor clearly distinguish between lighter and heavier use. (The article did note that there were many more daily users of cannabis than alcohol, despite the fact that there were many more drinkers than tokers overall the sample.) And it is very curious that the typically pro-21 mainstream scientific community are so willing to practically exonerate alcohol in such a study of teens--or perhaps they are simply alcohol supremacists. And while the sample size and longitudinal nature of this study puts it head and shoulders about most other studies on the matter, given the aforementioned concerns it should still be viewed with caution in terms of causation.
Additionally, the study seems to be silent on the real "dark horse of drugs"--tobacco/nicotine. Nicotine is a known neurotoxin, particularly during early adolescence, and is far more correlated with cannabis than alcohol use. Thus, at least some of the reported effects in the study could in fact be due to tobacco, and/or perhaps other substances as well.
Keep in mind that the infamous 2012 study that reportedly found persistently reduced IQs among adults who used cannabis before age 18, was debunked by 2014 study that found no correlation between adolescent cannabis use and IQ or exam performance (though heavy use beginning before age 15 was associated with slightly poorer exam results at age 16). This latter study did control for tobacco, alcohol, and a host of other factors. So it is very likely that soon another study will come a long and refute the first study discussed in this article, or perhaps find that any such effects are limited to the heaviest users, particularly those who began before age 15 or 16. In fact, a 2018 systematic review of 69 studies of adolescent and young adult cannabis use and cognitive functioning found that reported adverse effects were much smaller in size than the prohibitionists like to claim, and generally tend to be temporary rather than permanent, even for frequent and/or heavy use. And interestingly, no correlation with age of onset, though the mean age of study participants in these 69 studies was significantly higher than in the aforementioned Montreal study.
Other studies as well cast serious doubt on the scary claims of cannabis neurotoxicity as well, and most studies find weed safer than alcohol.
So what is the best takeaway from such studies? It would seem that while occasional or moderate cannabis use is basically a non-problem, heavy and/or daily/near-daily use (unless medically necessary) should probably be avoided at any age, but particularly for people under 18 and especially under 15. And while delaying the onset of use, or at least regular use, for as long as possible is probably wise for people under 18 and especially under 15, there is no hard scientific evidence that cannabis is any more harmful at 18 than it is as 21, 25, or even 30 for that matter. Thus, there is no good reason to keep it illegal or set the age limit any higher than 18. And even for people well under 18, the criminal law is still far too harsh a tool to apply to something like this that more likely than not turns out to be a non-problem.
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
O Cannabis! Canada Fully Legalizes Weed
Well, it's official. Our friendly neighbor to the north, Canada, has now fully legalized cannabis effective today, October 17, 2018. The actual law doing so, Bill C-45, was passed a few months ago in June, but officially goes into effect today. That makes Canada the second country in the world (after Uruguay in 2014) to officially and fully legalize it nationwide.
The details vary from province to province, but cannabis is generally legal in all 13 Canadian provinces and territories now. Age limits for purchase and possession are 18 or 19 depending on the province. It will be the same as the drinking age, with the notable exception of Manitoba whose drinking age is 18 but whose toking age is 19, because reasons. Thus, Alberta and Quebec will be 18 and everywhere else will be 19. Not perfect, of course, but still WAY more progressive than the USA, in which only a fraction of the states have full legalization and all of such legalization states set the age limit at 21. You know, kinda like the ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age--which really needs to be lowered to 18 yesterday (along with the toking age as well).
Other advantages of the Canadian model of legalization include the fact that the prices/taxes of legal weed will be set low enough to undercut the black market, something that the legalization states in the USA still have yet to do. This, combined with a lower age limit than the USA, would lead to the black market collapsing much sooner. And once it is gone, it will be gone forever within a few years from now, and then prices/taxes can then be raised just high enough to discourage overconsumption without resurrecting that very same black market.
We can certainly learn a lot from our friendly neighbor to the north. So what are waiting for?
The details vary from province to province, but cannabis is generally legal in all 13 Canadian provinces and territories now. Age limits for purchase and possession are 18 or 19 depending on the province. It will be the same as the drinking age, with the notable exception of Manitoba whose drinking age is 18 but whose toking age is 19, because reasons. Thus, Alberta and Quebec will be 18 and everywhere else will be 19. Not perfect, of course, but still WAY more progressive than the USA, in which only a fraction of the states have full legalization and all of such legalization states set the age limit at 21. You know, kinda like the ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age--which really needs to be lowered to 18 yesterday (along with the toking age as well).
Other advantages of the Canadian model of legalization include the fact that the prices/taxes of legal weed will be set low enough to undercut the black market, something that the legalization states in the USA still have yet to do. This, combined with a lower age limit than the USA, would lead to the black market collapsing much sooner. And once it is gone, it will be gone forever within a few years from now, and then prices/taxes can then be raised just high enough to discourage overconsumption without resurrecting that very same black market.
We can certainly learn a lot from our friendly neighbor to the north. So what are waiting for?
Friday, October 5, 2018
How Iceland Can Save Their Tourism Sector
A decade after their legendary financial crisis and its aftermath, it seems that Iceland is in trouble again despite their miraculous recovery. This time around, it is their tourism sector (which in fact was key to their recovery) that seems to be suffering now, cooling fast following a decade of explosive growth. Banks, of course, seem to have learned their lesson after the banksters that caused the crisis were jailed rather than bailed out like in the USA.
The reasons for the decline in tourism are not entirely clear, but since tourism is such a large chunk of Iceland's economy, a large and sustained decline has the potential to be a serious problem in the long run. So it would really behoove them to face this problem head-on before things deteriorate any further.
Two things immediately come to mind as potential solutions to reverse or at least slow the decline in tourism: 1) lower the drinking age to 18 (it is currently 20), and 2) abolish their youth curfew law, or at least stop enforcing it. And 3) legalize weed as well for everyone over 18. Problem solved. Next.
As for their alcohol tax, since they have the most expensive alcohol in the world (at least double the price it is in the USA), they might want to cut it a bit for on-premise sales while perhaps hiking it for off-premise sales, as they are way on the "wrong" side of the Laffer curve, and are very prone to "pregaming" before going out to the bar. Of course, cutting the alcohol tax too much would lead to adverse effects from an increase in excessive drinking (just look at the USA, for example), but there does seem to be such a thing as too high--and they are already there now.
Skal!
The reasons for the decline in tourism are not entirely clear, but since tourism is such a large chunk of Iceland's economy, a large and sustained decline has the potential to be a serious problem in the long run. So it would really behoove them to face this problem head-on before things deteriorate any further.
Two things immediately come to mind as potential solutions to reverse or at least slow the decline in tourism: 1) lower the drinking age to 18 (it is currently 20), and 2) abolish their youth curfew law, or at least stop enforcing it. And 3) legalize weed as well for everyone over 18. Problem solved. Next.
As for their alcohol tax, since they have the most expensive alcohol in the world (at least double the price it is in the USA), they might want to cut it a bit for on-premise sales while perhaps hiking it for off-premise sales, as they are way on the "wrong" side of the Laffer curve, and are very prone to "pregaming" before going out to the bar. Of course, cutting the alcohol tax too much would lead to adverse effects from an increase in excessive drinking (just look at the USA, for example), but there does seem to be such a thing as too high--and they are already there now.
Skal!
Friday, September 28, 2018
Teen Drinking Plummets Worldwide, Regardless of the Drinking Age
That is the biggest takeaway from the latest World Health Organization (WHO) study. Since 2002, teen drinking has indeed plummeted worldwide, including the USA. And lest the pro-21 crowd try to take any credit for this trend, keep in mind that this secular trend also occurred in other countries with drinking ages of 18 or even lower still. The UK, for example, despite their legendary binge drinking culture and relatively loosely enforced (albeit more so than in the past) drinking age of 18, saw their rate of weekly teen drinking among boys decline from 50.3% to 10% by 2014, a relative drop of over 80% and one of the largest declines of any nation. And British teen girls also saw a drop almost as large as well.
Both among teens and adults alike, gender gaps on drinking are also clearly narrowing. The difference is that among teens, the convergence is primarily due to drinking more rapidly decreasing among males (while still dropping for both primary genders), whereas among adults, it is primarily due to an increase in drinking among females in many countries. Let that sink in for a moment.
And as Twenty-One Debunked has noted before, another such notable example of this is Germany, whose drinking age is still 16 for beer and wine, and 18 for distilled spirits. In fact, one can even drink at 14 in public when accompanied by a parent or guardian, and there is no age limit for drinking in private residences. Such laws have essentially been in effect for as long as anyone can remember (with perhaps the notable exception of the Nazi era), so what were the results of maintaining them in recent decades? From 1979 to 2016, the percentage of 12-17 year old Germans who drink at least weekly dropped from 25.4% to 10.0%, a relative drop of more than 60%. For 18-25 year olds, the percentage dropped by nearly half during the same timeframe, and from 1973-2016 dropped from from two out of three (67.1%) to less than one out of three (30.7%). These trends are comparable to if not faster than the corresponding figures for American youth.
In other words, consider this the final nail in the coffin for the specious claim that the 21 drinking age had anything more than a minor impact on overall teen or young adult drinking. Prost!
Both among teens and adults alike, gender gaps on drinking are also clearly narrowing. The difference is that among teens, the convergence is primarily due to drinking more rapidly decreasing among males (while still dropping for both primary genders), whereas among adults, it is primarily due to an increase in drinking among females in many countries. Let that sink in for a moment.
And as Twenty-One Debunked has noted before, another such notable example of this is Germany, whose drinking age is still 16 for beer and wine, and 18 for distilled spirits. In fact, one can even drink at 14 in public when accompanied by a parent or guardian, and there is no age limit for drinking in private residences. Such laws have essentially been in effect for as long as anyone can remember (with perhaps the notable exception of the Nazi era), so what were the results of maintaining them in recent decades? From 1979 to 2016, the percentage of 12-17 year old Germans who drink at least weekly dropped from 25.4% to 10.0%, a relative drop of more than 60%. For 18-25 year olds, the percentage dropped by nearly half during the same timeframe, and from 1973-2016 dropped from from two out of three (67.1%) to less than one out of three (30.7%). These trends are comparable to if not faster than the corresponding figures for American youth.
In other words, consider this the final nail in the coffin for the specious claim that the 21 drinking age had anything more than a minor impact on overall teen or young adult drinking. Prost!
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