Don't Ban Alcohol. Tax It Instead, And Restrict Quantities.

South Africa has had the dubious distinction of being the only country in the (non-Muslim) world to ban all alcohol sales during their coronavirus lockdown.  They recently lifted that ban.

To be clear, Twenty-One Debunked does NOT support such a thing at all, as it is excessive and overbroad.  We also don't support general lockdowns either, given that they are also of dubious effectiveness and fly directly in the face of a supposedly free society and its Constitution.  But it is true nonetheless that alcohol abuse (and alcohol-related domestic violence and child abuse) is a problem in nearly all lockdown countries regardless, and large gatherings are of course a very big no-no during the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.  Now is clearly NOT the time to throw a kegger!  Thus, we support the following done in the USA for the remaining duration of the pandemic, which we define as at until least 30 days after the number of new cases reaches and remains at zero, or for 90 days total, whichever is longer:

• Raise the taxes on alcohol, dramatically.
• Maintain and enforce a ban on non-essential gatherings of 500 people or more, with perhaps a lower, double-digit limit on indoor gatherings specifically (since those are riskier).
• Ban the sale of kegs to anyone who is not a licensed bar or restaurant owner.
• Put a cap on the amount of alcohol an individual can purchase per person per day, such as no more than one case or 30-pack of beer, one gallon of wine, or two liters of hard alcohol less than or equal to 100 proof or one liter of hard alcohol greater than 100 proof.
• Reopen bars and restaurants with "Swedish rules" for the first couple of weeks:  restrict occupancy, table service only, outdoor seating preferred, no eating or drinking perpendicular (standing up).  Delay the reopening of nightclubs and casinos until a few weeks after bars reopen.
• For the first couple of weeks, require restaurant and bar staff to wear masks, and patrons to wear masks while not eating or drinking.
• Crack down heavily on drunk driving, drunk violence, and domestic and child abuse.
• Put a moratorium on enforcement of the 21 drinking age for any 18-20 year olds who are drinking responsibly and following such protocols above.  (Of course, the drinking age should be lowered to 18 yesterday.)

So what are we waiting for?

What Do Lockdowns And The 21 Drinking Age Have In Common?

Turns out, quite a lot in fact.

Both COVID-19 lockdowns and the 21 drinking age  were first implemented in a moment of panic during a deadly crisis--coronavirus in the first case, drunk driving in the second.  While neither were sold as miracles at first, they were indeed sold as ways to mitigate, or in the lingua franca of 2020, "flatten the curve" by at least slowing down the crises and hopefully save lives in the process.   Delay the peak of coronavirus cases and protect the hospitals from collapse, we were told.  Delay legal access to drinking alcohol until 21 and protect young people and those they share the road with until they are a bit more mature, we were told.  And of course in both cases, the more zealous of the enthusiasts sold it as a suppression strategy or even an eradication strategy rather than merely mitigation--if only they could make up their minds.  The message was we could either give up some of our rights temporarily or all of our rights permanently, or at least that we had a moral duty to give up some of our rights lest we have unacceptably high death rates in both cases.  And we had to act NOW, or else.  No time to think it through, our brains must go into neutral for the time being.  After all, the models can't be wrong, can they?

And then once these measures were firmly in place for a while, relatively speaking, their enthusiasts seamlessly moved the goalposts.  Now it was no longer about preventing hospitals from collapsing (which generally didn't happen anywhere outside of Lombardy, Italy regardless of whether a country did a lockdown or not) or keeping a massive excess of blood off of the Demolition Derby-style highways, but rather about "saving lives at any cost" (as long as someone else pays it, of course) and with the 21 drinking age more recently about protecting "developing brains from damage" and other social-engineering goals.  And then there is the "blood borders" phenomenon both with the virus as well as DUI.  Thus the enthusiasts of both now wanted to extend these measures indefinitely, with the fear of all hell breaking loose if these restrictions are ever relaxed before a vaccine (for the virus) or better public transit and self-driving cars (for DUI)--but in the latter case they still have the pseudo-neuroscience argument to fall back on as well.  By design, there is no exit strategy.  And many people are reluctant to support ending such policies since they fear blood on their hands if they do, making the policies politically a LOT harder to get out of than to get into.

The supposed effectiveness of lockdowns (compared to far less extreme restrictions) in terms of slowing or stopping the spread of coronavirus has been called into serious question lately by more recent studies.
Such studies have found there is at best no correlation, and perhaps a perverse effect between the two defining features of hard lockdowns (stay-home orders and closures of all non-essential businesses) and COVID-19 cases and deaths per capita after other factors such as less-extreme policies are accounted for.  The benefits are thus nothing more than a statistical mirage that does not stand up to scrutiny--much like the supposed benefits of the 21 drinking age vis-a-vis DUI deaths in the long run.

So what happened?  Turns out that in the case of both, the early adopters did fare better overall, at least at first, though many non-adopters did at least as good if not better in terms of reducing death rates by using far more moderate measures.  But for the belated and/or coerced adopters, both lockdowns and MLDA 21 turned out to be worse than useless, essentially pouring gasoline on the fire after the train has already left the station, and with plenty of collateral damage.  And while the book has not yet been completely written on the coronavirus pandemic saga, for the 21 drinking age we see even for the early adopters, the benefits were short-lived, and really ended up just delaying deaths by a few years, both from one cohort to the one one behind it, as well shifting deaths from the 18-20 group to the 21-24 group, possibly even resulting in a net increase in deaths in the long run.  Much like how for lockdowns, at best they delay some deaths by a few weeks compared to more moderate measures even when done early, at great cost to the economy and society.

Meanwhile, the collateral damage of lockdowns (economic depression, unemployment, inequality, poverty, alcohol and other drug abuse, domestic violence, child abuse, loneliness, poor mental health, delayed medical treatment, etc.), which also kills people too by the way, continues to mount with each passing week of lockdown, making an utter mockery of practically all progressive and even basic humanitarian priorities.  For the 21 drinking age, this collateral damage has resulted in forcing alcohol use underground and making it far more dangerous than it has to be, and people being reluctant to call 911 in the event of alcohol overdoses and injuries, and that maims and kills people too.  And for both, that's to say nothing of the damage to civil rights and liberties, culture, and community cohesion, that progressives would generally support.

As for protecting the most vulnerable members of society, we have seen this movie enough times to know how it ends, and it doesn't end well.  Both measures are far too crude to do actually protect them, and sadly but unsurprisingly, both have failed miserably in that regard.  Which is usually the case with such "blunt" policy instruments in general.

In other words, even when done early and enthusiastically, there is no short or long term benefit that cannot be had by more moderate measures done early and enthusiastically.  And in the long run, especially when done after the proverbial horse has bolted, the "cure" quickly becomes far worse than the disease.  And when we look at the control group--that is, those jurisdictions who did not take such measures at all--the case for both collapses.

Let America be America Again.  And end both bad policies yesterday, as both have by now outlived their usefulness.  What are we waiting for?

Have A Safe And Happy Memorial Day Weekend

This coming Monday, May 25, is Memorial Day, often known as the unofficial first day of summer and National BBQ Day.  But let's remember what it really is--a day to honor all of the men and women of our armed forces who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country.  And that of course includes all of those who died serving our country before they were legally old enough to drink.  Let us all take a moment of silence to honor them.

As for Candy Lightner, the ageist turncoat founder of MADD who had the chutzpah and hubris to go on national TV in 2008 and publicly insult our troops, may her name and memory be forever blotted out. 

And as always, arrive alive, don't drink and drive.  It's just not worth it, period.  And it's very simple to prevent.   If you plan to drive, don't drink, and if you plan to drink, don't drive.  It's not rocket science.

Also, please remember that the COVID-19 pandemic, though largely waning in most of the USA, is still not over yet.  So avoid any sort of gatherings of more than 10 people, and be sure to keep your distance whenever possible.  Don't overcrowd beaches or anywhere else.  And while masks are clearly not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, please continue to wear them in any public place where it is practical to do so, especially on public transit, grocery and retail stores, or anywhere else that maintaining least six feet of distance is difficult or impossible.  And even in locations that have reopened, despite what anyone says, this is still NOT the time to go to bars, clubs, or any similarly crowded indoor venues.  Hopefully by Fourth of July it will be relatively safe to do so at least in most areas, but that is only if people don't screw this up in the meantime.

Dear Ageists: We're All M*nors Now

Dear Ageists,

Last year, or even just a few weeks ago (though it seems like an eternity ago), you were all feeling smug as a bug in a rug.  So arrogantly complacent as though the world was your oyster just waiting to be shucked.  Every real or imagined social or economic problem was to be blamed on the younger generation, and vaping was apparently the crisis du jour.  And of course you reflexively pivoted to raising the age limit for tobacco and vape products to 21, first state by state, then nationwide by the end of 2019.  This was the culmination of a four-decade period of increasingly tighter restrictions on young people starting with the 21 drinking age, then curfew laws, then increasingly prison-like schools, zero tolerance, helicopter parenting, and stuff like that.  All while increasingly criminalizing young people, treating them like children when they were good and adults when they were bad.  And you systematically divested from the younger generation with budget austerity, particularly in terms of education and social safety net programs all while they grew increasingly necessary in our hollowed-out economy.  And then you had the GALL to gaslight everyone about it all.

But then the coronavirus pandemic began in earnest and really began to bite in March 2020.  And because of all of the bungling and negligence on the part of the federal government in January and February, it got so out of control by mid-March that America had to basically cancel everything and shut down in an attempt to slow the spread of this nasty virus.  First the bars and restaurants were shuttered, then schools, then more and more places until all "nonessential" businesses and most public places were shuttered as well, putting millions of people out of work. Stay-at-home orders and curfews were then implemented in most states, some stricter than others.  Just about anything is illegal now unless the state government approves it as "essential", and in many states people of all ages can now be thrown into a virus-infested jail for violating such lockdown orders.  The longstanding catchphrase "that escalated quickly" really is the understatement of the century now.

Well, I bet you ageists are not so smug now, are you?  You are all now basically being treated like you have been treating young people all along.   And it's only been about a month and you are already getting restless and angry.  Which is fully understandable of course--I really don't like the increasingly Orwellian restrictions either--but your rank hypocrisy is so thick you could cut it with a knife.  And your waving of Confederate flags, open carry of AR-15s, gridlocking traffic near hospitals of all places, and deliberate and blatant flouting of even basic social distancing protocols only makes you look that much more ridiculous and dare we say, immature.

So consider yourselves all grounded until further notice.  Now go wash your filthy mouths out with soap and go to your room!

Sincerely,
Young people and their adult allies

P.S.  The word "m*nor" is a slur against young people under the age of 18, 21, or whatever arbitrary age happens to be the flavor of the month.  So don't go repeating it unless you REALLY like the taste of soap!

Hawaii's Tobacco 25 Bill Has Died--For Now

Finally, a bit of good news for once:  the abominable bill to raise the smoking and vaping age to 25 (!) in Hawaii has fortunately died unceremoniously in the House, at least for now.  It may be tweaked and reintroduced at a later date, of course, but for now it has lost momentum at least.

That said, this is certainly no time for our movement to rest on our laurels.

And You Thought They Would Stop At 21

Hawaii was the first state to raise the tobacco smoking and vaping age to 21, just four years ago in 2016.  While that may seem like only yesterday, and that is certainly bad enough, there is now a bill to raise the age limit to 25.  No, this is not The Onion, this has a very real chance of passing.  Additionally, there is another bill that by 2025 would raise the smoking age to...wait for it...100.  Yes, you read that right.

These bills had better not pass, lest it become contagious.  Just like Tobacco 21 laws have proven to be.  Alas, this evil train does NOT seem to stop at 21, nor will it stop at tobacco for that matter.  It is apparently an express train, with 25 being next, and other rights and privileges also in its sights as well.

Well, everything except going to war, of course, since the war machine apparently likes 'em young, fresh, and green, as they always have.  And of course the age of consent for sex (and you can probably also add porn and stripping, and even prostitution in Nevada) as well, since nothing says "adulto-patriarchy" like a little "droit du seigneur", apparently.  In other words, 18-24 year olds are only (non-)adults when it is convenient for those in power.  Thus, not only is tyranny as whimisical as it is bipartisan, but they clearly need to stop pretending that their concerns are moral ones, or even based on public health.

RIP Hawaii, paradise well and truly lost.

Does Social Norms Marketing Work In The Long Run? The Latest Study Says Yes

The latest study on social norms marketing for Michigan State University students over a 14 year period is highly encouraging.  From 2000 to 2014, high-risk drinking dropped significantly faster at MSU than it did for national trends:

• The percentage of MSU students who said they consumed eight or more drinks in one sitting dropped from nearly 28% to 16.5%, a 41% relative decrease.
• The percentage of MSU students who said they drove after drinking fell by 58% as well.
• Additionally, another forthcoming study found that the percentage of MSU students who said they drank on 10 or more days in the past month dropped from 24.1% to 13.4% by 2016, while it remained largely flat at the national level.

That is quite impressive.  Considering how MSU went from being consistently in The Princeton Review's list of top 20 "party schools" to no longer being on that list anymore, that really says something.

How does social norms marketing work?  Young people often falsely believe that their peers are drinking, smoking, vaping, toking, or using other substances much more than is actually the case, and they feel pressure to conform to such inaccurate norms.  This is called "pluralistic ignorance".  By simply setting the record straight about the actual numbers, it tends to reduce the use of such substances overall when the "reign of error" is corrected.  In contrast, moral panics exaggerate the levels of use, which tends to increase the use of such substances, in what is known as a "deviancy amplification spiral".

Most other studies agree on the effectiveness of the social norms approach.  The effects are quite robust and seem to occur fairly quickly in most studies.  So what about the handful of studies that seem to disagree?  It is true that poorly designed programs, unsurprisingly, do not work very well.  And for colleges and demographics in which heavy drinking is most entrenched, it stands to reason that it can take longer to show any effects, longer than the short time periods of most studies on the matter.  Attitudes generally have to change first before behavior does, as a rule.  But as we see, Michigan State is clearly an example of a formerly entrenched heavy drinking "party school" that did show massive declines in both high-risk drinking practices as well as drunk driving and the frequency of drinking.  And those declines were in fact quite long-term, continuing at least a decade and a half with still no signs of stalling.

(Looks like William DeJong was right the first time after all, even if the alcohol outlet density in college towns may moderate or confound the results in his later research on the subject.)

Social norms marketing is clearly a highly effective yet inexpensive way to reduce harmful alcohol and other substance use/abuse, and best of all, it does not violate anyone's civil rights or liberties at all.  In contrast, legalistic crackdowns and so-called "environmental management" programs like "A Matter of Degree" are expensive, authoritarian, intrusive, ageist, and can be quite difficult to implement in practice.  So what are we waiting for?

Most Young People Don't Vape, And Even Fewer Vape Regularly

Finally, an honest article about the teen vaping "epidemic", written by New York University (NYU).  Rather than fan the flames of moral panic, and increase teen vaping even further, they simply tell it like it is.  Based on the 2018 National Youth Tobacco Survey of middle and high school students:

• Over 80% of students, or more than 4 out of 5, did not use any tobacco or nicotine product at all in the past 30 days.
• Over 86%, or more than 6 out of 7, of students did not vape in the past 30 days.
• Only 3.6% of students, or fewer than one in 25, vaped regularly (i.e. on 20+ days per month), while
• A mere 0.4%, or one in 250, of tobacco-naive students vaped with that sort of frequency.
• All while combustible tobacco use is at a record low.

And that was in 2018, which was the year when the moral panic over teen vaping really began in earnest.  While the 2019 data for that survey showed a further increase in vaping since 2018, the full data had not been made public yet, so a detailed analysis could not be done as it was for 2018.

These are the kinds of articles that need to go viral, not the moral panic ones.  It's basically social norms marketing.  Young people often falsely believe that their peers are drinking, smoking, vaping, toking, or using other substances much more than is actually the case, and they feel pressure to conform to such inaccurate norms.  This is called "pluralistic ignorance".  By setting the record straight about the actual numbers, it tends to reduce the use of such substances overall.  In contrast, moral panics exaggerate the levels of use, which tends to increase the use of such substances, in what is known as a "deviancy amplification spiral".

Thus, the real public service message needs to be as follows: Over 4 out of 5 teens don't use tobacco or nicotine.  Over 6 out of 7 don't vape.  And even fewer vape regularly--24 out of 25 do not.  Join the majority!

How To Solve The Vaping Crisis In Five Easy Steps

First of all, the "vaping crisis" is actually two different problems that just happen to share the same delivery system.  The first is the explosion of nicotine vaping (particularly the JUUL brand, with very high nicotine levels) among teens from late 2017 onwards.  The second is the "mystery" vaping lung illness, now known as EVALI, that has finally been linked to the cause that we suspected for months now:  Mostly black-market and gray-market THC (and probably CBD) vape cartridges containing the additive Vitamin E Acetate, which is apparently VERY bad for the lungs.  Instead of conflating the two, we must realize that they are two different issues with different solutions, while also noting that pushing them into the black market will only pour gasoline on the fire.

Thus, Twenty-One Debunked recommends the following:

1. Legalize cannabis, vaping and otherwise, for everyone 18 and older, period. 
2. For cannabis vape products, ban Vitamin E Acetate and all other additives that are not on a narrow list of approved additives.  Implement strict quality control to test for questionable substances and issue product recalls as needed.  (Also require quality control of nicotine vape products while we're at it.)
3. Cap the nicotine content of nicotine vape products at similar levels as found in the UK, Europe, and Israel, and also subject such products to the same advertising restrictions as combustible cigarettes.
4. Tax nicotine vape products, but keep the tax lower than the tax on combustible cigarettes (or alternatively, raise the cigarette tax even higher).
5. Strictly enforce existing purchase age limits on vendors via compliance checks, but avoid knee-jerk reactionary policy measures such as broad flavor bans or raising the smoking/vaping age to 21, which will drive vapers to the black market.

Do these things and tone down the moral panic, and both of these problems will soon wither on the vine.  But that would make too much sense, of course.

What If We Can't Lower The Drinking Age Anytime Soon? (Re-Post)

Perish the thought, but it looks like the utterly vile and ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age will not be lowered to 18 (or even lowered at all) anytime soon.  It's plain to see that the movement to lower it has completely run out of momentum by now, and the movement to raise the smoking/vaping age to 21 has unfortunately only gained momentum in recent years, and with no signs of stopping.  In fact, the federal government recently raised the federal tobacco/vaping purchase age to 21.  And while the cannabis legalization movement still has enough momentum, unfortunately all US states (though not Canada) that have chosen to legalize it so far have chosen 21 as their legal toking age.

Does that mean our movement is dead, never to rise again?  Of course not, but our movement is in a sort of "dark night of the soul", apparently, and a very long one too.  Depressing as it sounds, we must realize that it is always darkest before the dawn, and we must redouble our efforts to tackle the 21 drinking age while the country is hopelessly distracted by tobacco and especially vaping these days.

One bright spot among recent trends is the increasing tendency towards criminal justice reform.  We may be able to use that to our advantage, in fact.  If we can't lower the drinking age right away, we can at least reduce the harm by decriminalizing underage drinking (and smoking and toking), reducing it to a mere infraction (ticket) offense (if there are to even be any penalties at all) without any arrests, criminal penalties, or criminal record, bypassing the criminal justice system entirely.  Some states, such as New York and DC, already have that in place for alcohol, while many other states are still quite draconian by comparison.  We should also seize upon the trend towards reducing or eliminating driver's license sanctions for non-driving related offenses, and apply that to underage drinking (and smoking and toking) as well.  We should re-prioritize law enforcement resources towards retail sellers rather than young buyers and users, and make "underage" drinking (and smoking and toking) by 18-20 year olds the lowest law enforcement priority.  And of course, in our zeal to lower the drinking age to 18, we must not throw people under 18 under the bus in the name of cowardly political expendiency in that regard either.

And of course, we need to prioritize cracking down on drunk driving, drunk violence, drunk vandalism, rape and sexual assault, and other serious stuff like that at ANY age, not the mere victimless "crime" of responsible drinking by 18-20 year old young adults.

So what are we waiting for?

Sketchy Vape Vendors, Stop Spamming And Advertising On This Site!

To anyone who has been spamming and advertising questionable things in the comments section of our blog posts, we at Twenty-One Debunked are asking you to stop doing so.  Yesterday.  Just because of the subject matter of our blog posts or the fact that they contain certain key words, it does NOT mean that you should take that as an invitation to hawk your sketchy wares here.  Needless to say, I have deleted all of your posts.  Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

This applies particularly to people persistently trying to advertise black-market cannabis vaping products (which of course are most likely adulterated with questionable and harmful additives) in the comments section of our posts.  That is practically the definition of chutzpah, given the fact that the "mystery" vaping illness (EVALI) has in fact been traced to adulterants such products.  Twenty-One Debunked does NOT endorse or support the sale, use, or promotion of ANY illicit or black-market products, period.  So cease and desist NOW.  You have been warned.

And for any readers who seek to buy such black-market vape products, please keep in mind that you are essentially playing Russian Roulette when you buy such sketchy stuff, since there is ZERO quality control and a massive profit motive to adulterate their products to inflate their profit margins.  Nearly 60 people have been KILLED by such products, and over 2600 have been seriously injured and sickened.

So buyer beware!

The Cannabis Black Market Has A Kill Switch, And We Know What It Is

We keep hearing over and over again that the black market for cannabis comtinues to persists despite legalization for several years in several states.  And we also are learning that this black market is selling notoriously tainted counterfeit THC vape products which are the primary cause of the "mystery" vaping lung illness now known as EVALI.  National legalization should really be a no-brainer at this point.

But why does the black market persist so tenaciously even in states like Colorado and Washington that have had legal recreational sales for over five years now?  The answer is overtaxation and overregulation, particularly in terms of retail licensing fees and quotas.  And the kill switch for the black market is thus really quite simple:

So what to do?  Cut the taxes on cannabis, yesterday, for at least a year or two before raising them again.  Consider a complete tax holiday for a few months, like Oregon did when legalization began there.  Ease up a bit on licensing regulations (and fees) for both producers and retailers.  Allow at least all liquor stores to sell weed alongside their booze, and further consider allowing any store that sells cigarettes to also sell weed as well, including grocery and convenience stores.  Lower the age limit to 18, yesterday.  Encourage current black market dealers to "go legit", by giving amnesty to unlicensed sellers and allowing them to obtain retail licenses.  And once these things are done, then crack down hard on what remains of the black market, particularly the illegal commercial growers and higher-ups in the illegal businesses and organized crime syndicates.

Problem solved.

And of course, fully legalize cannabis at the federal level as well.  Period.

Of course, once the black market is dead and gone, then by all means, tax away.  But now is NOT the time for overtaxation or overregulation.

So what should the tax on cannabis be?  To start with, we at Twenty-One Debunked believe it should be no higher that $10/ounce for bud and $2.50/ounce for trim at the production/cultivation level, with no other taxes aside from regular sales tax.  Consider a three-month tax holiday as well, like Oregon did in 2015.  Then, after the first year or two, the tax should be no higher than $50/ounce for bud and $15/ounce for trim, much like it is in Alaska today.  As for concentrates and edibles, those are best to tax based on THC content, e.g. 1 cent/milligram of THC.

Indeed, recent studies in both the USA and Canada do bear this out.  Allowing a legal alternative to the black market will out-compete with the latter, but only if the price of legal cannabis flower remains below about $14/gram.  Above that threshold, adult customers will readily switch back to the black market if it is the cheaper option, at least in the first few years post-legalization.

As for the price elasticity of demand for cannabis, that has been a controversial topic, but recent studies find that it is relatively inelastic at low prices, but becomes quite elastic at high enough prices, implying an "elastic zone" above some threshold (in one study, $15/joint, or about $30/gram based on the study's half-gram definition of a joint) for high-quality weed.

Interestingly, some other studies find cross-elasticity between alcohol, tobacco and cannabis among young people, such that raising the cigarette tax and even the beer tax can lead to reduced cannabis consumption.  Thus, any fears that falling cannabis prices will lead to more teen use can be addressed by simply raising the taxes on the other two substances in the meantime, before the cannabis black market is eradicated.  (Which will also decrease the use of alcohol and tobacco as well, by the way.)

Remember, there is really no good reason why cannabis needs to be regulated any more stringently than alcohol or tobacco.  After all, while it is not completely harmless for everyone, the fact remains that by just about any objective, rational, scientific measure, cannabis is safer than alcohol, tobacco, most prescription drugs, aspirin, and even Tylenol, while it is less addictive than coffee.  Thus our laws and regulations need to align accurately with reality, since facts > feelings, even in a "post-truth" society.

One Weird Trick Reduces Binge Drinking on College Campuses By Nearly 10%

Clickbait-y title aside, a recent study confirms what we at Twenty-One Debunked have always known.  When examining substance use trends among college students from 2008-2018, it was observed that recreational cannabis legalization was associated with nearly 10% LESS "binge" drinking by students over the age of 21.  That is of course not surprising, given that alcohol and cannabis tend to be substitutes, and the legal age limit for both substances is 21 in all such legalization states so far.  No such effect was observed for students under 21, and no other effects were observed on trends for any other substance use (including nicotine use, illicit drug use, and prescription stimulant, sedative, or opioid misuse) among students under or over 21, except for a modest increase in the (mis)use of sedatives among students under 21 (but not over 21) for whatever reason. (So much for the long-debunked "gateway" theory).

We at Twenty-One Debunked believe that if the age limit was lowered to 18 for both alcohol and cannabis, the benefits of the aforementioned reduction in "binge" drinking would extend to students under 21 as well.   In any case, cannabis legalization looks like a net public health win on balance.

So what are we waiting for?

The Federal Smoking And Vaping Age Is Now 21 (Part Deux)

As we had noted a little over a week ago, Congress raised the federal age limit for the sale of tobacco and vape products from 18 to 21 as part of a must-pass budget bill to avoid yet another government shutdown, and on December 20, 2019, Trump signed it into law, and even had the GALL to brag-tweet about it.  And while Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch "Awkward Turtle" McConnell, a big supporter of the age limit hike, was no doubt very pleased with himself for his "victory", we need to remember that both parties overwhelmingly supported it.  Tyranny is apparently as bipartisan as it is whimisical--and very cowardly as well.  And of course, Big Tobacco and Big Vape overwhelmingly supported it like the cowardly quislings that they are.

If that wasn't bad enough, it looks like the FDA isn't wasting any time in implementing the raising of the tobacco and vape product sale age to 21.  As of December 27, 2019, they officially noted on their website that it is now illegal to sell tobacco or vape products to anyone under 21.  They could have waited up to 180 days to formulate new regulations plus an additional 90 days before enforcing them, according to the new law, but apparently even that very small mercy is somehow beneath them.  And of course there is no grandfather clause either in this disgusting new law, nor will there be in the FDA regulations.  In other words, 18-20 year old young adults in a whopping 31 non-21 states (and several territories) who were legal to buy cigarettes and vapes just a week ago are suddenly banned from buying them now.  Talk about adding insult to injury!

And of course the new federal 21 law also applies just as much to our men and women in uniform, despite a few Tobacco 21 states having the small mercy to carve out an exception for them.  The new federal law has NO such exceptions, and is really a slap in the face of so many of our troops.  You know, kinda like the 21 drinking age has been for over three decades now.

The only silver lining to this ageist abomination is that it may very well anger enough Americans to challenge it in court, and if successful, we may get the two-for-one special of getting that other ageist abomination, the 21 drinking age, struck down as well.  And possibly even for cannabis too, though federally there is no such age limit (yet).  Otherwise, there is really no upside to this new law.  All it will do is effectively create an even more massive black market and greater disrespect for the rule of law.

In fact, it may very well drive many teen and young adult nicotine vapers back to smoking, since even with strict enforcement, regular cigarettes will be at least somewhat easier to get than vape products due to the difference in the size of the markets, general accessibility, and the design of the products.  Talk about a lose-lose proposition for public health!

As a wise man once said, "America will never be destroyed from the outside.  Rather, if we lose our freedoms, it is because we have destroyed ourselves from within."  That wise man, Abraham Lincoln, did not use those exact words it turns out, but his words came very close nonetheless.  And that (mis)quote turned out to be very prescient indeed, as America really seems to be rotting and rusting from within.

The song "21 Guns" by Green Day comes to mind, as does the song immediately following it on the same album, "American Eulogy".  And of course there's also Five Finger Death Punch, with "Stranger than Fiction":

"It's stranger than fiction, how [we've] decayed..."

The Vaping Lung Illness Mystery Has Been Solved

Looks like the "mystery" vaping lung illness (now called EVALI) has been largely solved.  And the primary culprit is indeed the same one that Twenty-One Debunked and many others had long suspected several months ago:  Vitamin E Acetate, a common additive found almost exclusively in black-market and counterfeit THC (and probably some gray-market CBD) vape cartridges.  Though harmless when ingested orally or applied topically, when inhaled it is apparently a different story:  this "thick and greasy" oil, and perhaps also its byproducts upon heating it to high temperatures, can indeed cause serious lung damage, and quickly.  It certainly does NOT belong in the lungs at all!  And both samples of vape cartridges as well as (more recently) samples of lung fluids taken from EVALI patients now confirm such suspicions, as noted recently by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).  But we could have told you that a while ago.

The illness was apparently quite rare before June 2019, when the epidemic apparently exploded, peaked in September, and sharply declined thereafter.  In other words, this was not a trend, this was an event.  Something had clearly changed about vaping between 2018 and the first half of 2019.

Prior to 2019, Vitamin E Acetate was not widely used in THC vape products, whether legal or illegal, and according to cannabis industry insiders it first emerged as a cutting agent for products made in late 2018 at the earliest.  It may very well have been used before that, but if it was it was too rare to be of any concern or on anyone's radar.  But then, the black-market and counterfeit THC vape product purveyors discovered that this cheap additive can be used to dilute (or "cut") the expensive THC distillate oil while (unlike with other, thinner cutting agents) still maintaining a thick enough consistency to fool unsuspecting buyers into thinking it is purer than it really is, and thus greatly increasing the profit margins.  Yes, you read that right--for filthy lucre.  And they now have a ton of karma to answer for.

And while there apparently have also been some bad actors in the legitimate cannabis market that used this additive here and there, the fact remains that it has been quite rare overall.  And there is still no evidence that Vitamin E Acetate was ever used in any nicotine-containing vapes, whether legitimate or counterfeit.  (Note that those EVALI patients who reported "only nicotine" vaping and not THC may not have been entirely honest.)  In other words, it is fundamentally a black-market and counterfeiting problem that is best solved with legalization and sensible regulation, not blanket prohibition or overregulation.

There may very well have been other additives to blame as well, along with heavy and hard metals leaching from the heating coils of janky devices.  And perhaps some statistical flukes thrown in for good measure.  But these other minor culprits are basically sideshows compared with Vitamin E Acetate, and again the best solution is legalization and regulation of such products and devices, not prohibition.

Of course, that would make too much sense.  But truth is always the first casualty in any moral panic.

And really, SHAME on anyone (politicians, pundits, regulators, and activists) who cynically and disingenuously used the horrendous and hellish suffering of the over 2500 EVALI victims (and over 50 deaths) as a ploy to push their hateful and regressive prohibitionist agendas, while essentially hiding or denying the real cause of the illness for several months, before finally admitting it well after the epidemic had peaked.  You had a chance to save so many lives and prevent so much suffering, but you chose to sit on it, because reasons.  You now have just as much blood on your hands as the aforementioned bad actors that chose to adulterate their products with questionable additives for filthy lucre.  What you did was unforgivable in our view, but you now have a chance to make amends (albeit belatedly) to keep your karma from getting any worse.  So what are you waiting for?  Legalize and regulate yesterday!

JANUARY 2020 UPDATE:  The latest CDC report confirms yet again that the vast, vast majority of EVALI patients, among those for whom data is available, reported obtaining THC vapes from "informal" sources.  And while the anti-legalization lobby seized upon the finding that 16% of those reporting THC vaping reported obtaining their products from "commerical" sources, keep mind that that figure also includes unlicensed pop-up shops that may appear legitimate but are not, and there is always the possibility of recall bias when more than one product is used or shared.  Again, the real solution is to legalize, regulate, and root out the bad actors, not to categorically ban cannabis or vaping.

Though relatively rare, Vitamin E Acetate  has recently been found in some legal THC vape cartridges on the shelves of licensed dispensaries, including medical dispensaries upon testing, at least in Michigan.  A product recall was rightly issued.  Another state that bothered to test for it, such as Massachusetts had found none of that additive in their legal products, but had temporarily quarantined their products in November so they could be tested before reaching consumers.  This is how the system of quality control is supposed to work, and far better than the black market, which has ZERO quality control.

(For those who are interested, the hypothesized underlying chemistry of how exactly Vitamin E Acetate can cause EVALI can be found here and here.  Once thought to be lipoid pneumonia based on a handful of case reports, it turned out to be more like chemical burns in the vast majority of cases.)

The Kids Are Still (Mostly) Alright in 2019

The latest 2019 Montoring the Future survey results are in.  And while the mainstream media are hyping this year's significant increase in teen vaping (of both nicotine and cannabis), they seem to be glossing over the good news.  For example, teen alcohol and (combustible) tobacco use have both plummeted to record lows, prescription drug abuse (especially opioids and amphetamines) is way down (in contrast to adults), and nearly all other substances (even heroin, again unlike adults) have held steady this year at relatively low levels compared with previous decades.  The one notable exception is LSD (acid), which showed a modest increase this year, but still remains far lower than it was before 2000.

Even cannabis use in general held steady overall this year, and while "daily" (i.e. 20+ days/month) use did see a modest increase this year for grades 8 and 10, in grade 8 it was no higher than it was in 2011 (prior to recreational legalization in any state) and is still quite low.  And keep in mind that for grades 8 and 10, data only go back to 1991, unlike grade 12 which goes all the way back to 1975. Thus, one can extrapolate based on grade 12 data that "daily" use for grades 8 and 10 are also both most likely far lower than they were in the late 1970s and early 1980s, as we know to be the case for grade 12.  And actual, true daily use (i.e. literally every day) is likely even lower still as well.

Even the vaping data are a bit outdated now, since the MTF survey was taken in the spring of 2019, at least several weeks or months before the new "mystery" vaping illness (now called EVALI) outbreak was suddenly announced during the summer.  Since then, the widespread fear of this scary but fortunately now-waning epidemic has likely reduced the popularity of vaping in general, so next year's data will likely be significantly lower than it was in early 2019.

Additionally, the data from another survey, the NSDUH, show that past-year and past-month cannabis use in general has been stable or declining for years for 12-17 year olds nationwide, even as it has been modestly and steadily rising for both 18-25 and 26+ year olds in recent years, and as it has become increasingly legal and socially acceptable to use cannabis and admit to doing so.  The same survey also finds that rates of cannabis use disorder (i.e. abuse/dependence) have been steadily declining for 12-17 year olds since the pre-legalization era, and have been relatively stable for 18-25 (undulating plateau) and 26+ year olds (flat) overall since 2002.

But don't expect the fearmongering mainstream media to tell you that, of course.

Have A Safe And Happy Holiday Season

(This is a public service announcement)

It is that time of year again when the holidays are upon us, and many of us Americans (and around the world) will be celebrating with alcohol and/or other substances.  We at Twenty-One Debunked would like to remind everyone to be safe and celebrate responsibly.  There is absolutely no excuse for drunk driving at any age, period.  We cannot stress this enough.  It's very simple--if you plan to drive, don't drink, and if you plan to drink, don't drive.  It's really not rocket science, folks.  And there are numerous ways to avoid mixing the two.  Designate a sober driver, take a cab, use public transportation, crash on the couch, or even walk if you have to.  Or stay home and celebrate there.  Or don't drink--nobody's got a gun to your head.  Seriously.  And the same goes for other psychoactive substances as well, and a fortiori when combined with alcohol.

ARRIVE ALIVE, DON'T DRINK AND DRIVE!!!   If you plan to drink, don't forget to think!  The life you save may very well be your own.

The Federal Smoking And Vaping Age Has Been Raised To 21

Well, it's now official.  As part of a must-pass budget bill to avoid yet another government shutdown, Congress attached several provisions unrelated to spending, most notably a rider that hikes the federal age limit for the sale of tobacco and vape products from 18 to 21 nationwide.  And on December 20, 2019, Trump signed it into law, and even had the GALL to brag-tweet about it.  And while Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch "Awkward Turtle" McConnell, a big supporter of the age limit hike, was no doubt very pleased with himself for his "victory", we need to remember that both duopoly parties overwhelmingly supported it.  Tyranny is apparently as bipartisan as it is whimisical--and very cowardly as well.

For practical purposes, the new age limit actually takes effect after 180 days plus an additional 90 days, meaning an effective delay of nine months from the date of signing.  Thus, by September 2020, Tobacco 21 will have been fully phased in nationwide.

The text of the new federal Tobacco 21 law does two things:  1) amends the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2019 by changing "18" to "21", and 2) while it technically no longer forces states to change their own laws (unlike the original version), nonetheless amends what was once called the Synar Amendment by requiring states to enforce (against vendors) the new federal age limit of 21 for the sale of tobacco and vape products, in order to quailfy for certain substance abuse prevention grant monies.

Though weaker than its original version, it is that second provision that may prove to be the Achilles heel of this law if it were to be challenged in court, on both Tenth Amendment as well as Fourteenth Amendment.  And if such a challenge ever proves successful, it will no doubt also overturn South Dakota v. Dole, and the National Minimum Drinking Age Act along with it.  But until then, it is long past time to be very, very angry at what passes for "leadership" in America's long, dark night of the soul.

Winter is coming, in more ways than one.

UPDATE:  Looks like the FDA isn't wasting any time in raising the tobacco and vape product sale age to 21.  As of December 27, 2019, they officially noted on their website that it is now illegal to sell tobacco or vape products to anyone under 21.  FEH.

The Anti-Legalization Movement Is Grasping At Straws Now

The anti-legalization movement in regards to cannabis has been getting quite desperate lately.  For example, Kevin Sabet of the anti-legalization group Project SAM has lately been disingenuously harping on the mystery vaping illness (now called EVALI) and shifting the spotlight onto legal cannabis vape products from licensed dispensaries while glossing over that inconvenient fact that the vast, vast, majority of the over 2000 EVALI cases so far are linked to black-market and counterfeit THC vape cartridges (as well as sketchy gray-market CBD vape cartridges).  In fact, non-legalization states have had far more EVALI cases than legalization states, though no state seems to be immune to it.  And the primary culprit appears to be Vitamin E Acetate (and possibly other questionable additives), and perhaps even the heavy metals from janky devices, as opposed to the actual cannabis itself, though he slyly glosses over that as well.  The biggest irony, of course, is that banning legal cannabis dispensaries will only drive even more consumers to the black market, thus pouring gasoline on the raging fires of EVALI.

In other words, Kevin Sabet and Project SAM are nothing more than concern trolls, and need to be taken with at least a grain of salt, if not a whole pound.  While there have been a few outlier cases of EVALI ostensibly linked to legal cannabis products from licensed dispensaries in some states, most of these cases remain either unconfirmed and/or the use of black market, counterfeit, or modified vape products has not been entirely ruled out in such cases.  To the extent that any of these are in fact caused by rogue and adulterated products from bad actors in the legitimate cannabis market, the solution is better regulation and oversight, NOT prohbition.

(In the meantime, it is probably best for the time being for current cannabis vapers to switch to dry-herb vaporizers, which have never been linked to EVALI or any other illness, to vape regular weed if you don't want to smoke it, just to be on the safe side.  Or at the very least, do your research and due diligence, and avoid all black-market, counterfeit, janky, suspect, and/or modified products like the plague.  And there are also edibles and tinctures.)

Oh and by the way, the anti-legalization movement is apparently also tainted with some thinly- and not-so-thinly-veiled anti-Semitism as well.  Not everyone of course, but as the Labour Party in the UK has unfortunately learned the hard way, failing to condemn it, turning a blind eye to it, or even creating a mere perception of same, has the same impact as deliberate and overt Jew-hatred and Jew-baiting does, and we know impact > intent.  And of course, the anti-Semitism in the broader cannabis prohibitionist movement goes back to at least Nixon and his notorious red-baiting and Jew-baiting conspiracy theories, while the movement's virulent racism and xenophobia in general goes all the way back to the very genesis of the movement over a century ago.

To be fair, there is no evidence that Kevin Sabet (or Project SAM in general) personally holds any anti-Semitic or racist views, with their only known bigotry being against cannabis and its users.  But in the broader cannabis prohibitionist movement today, others like Roger Morgan et al. DO apparently hold enough anti-Semitic views to be willing to openly repeat (if not concoct) long-since debunked anti-Semitic conspiracy theories (mainly involving George Soros) all the same, and the silence from Sabet and Project SAM (who just so happen to also share a connection with Morgan) is truly deafening indeed.

To the cannabis prohibitionist / anti-legalization movement, we have one question for you:  how does it feel to be on the wrong side of history?  Because we wouldn't know anything about that.

Are Americans Really Inferior To Europeans?

One common objection to lowering the drinking age to 18 in the USA is that "Europeans can handle a lower drinking age, but Americans can't".  People say this all the time without realizing the irony of it all.  They are literally implying that Americans are inferior to Europeans (and Canadians, etc.), while these are usually the same people who love to shout that America is the "greatest country in the world", often in the same breath with a straight face.

Silly, right?  And when asked to elaborate, they will likely say that Americans don't know the meaning of moderation and are lacking in self-discipline, often citing our legendary high obesity rate as "proof".  But by that logic, we should bring back Prohibition for all ages, right?  After all, there is nothing magical about 21.  But we saw what a failure that was.  And by the same token, the 21 drinking age is the greatest alcohol policy failure since Prohibition, and neither one led to moderation, in fact quite the opposite.  Most adults, including 18-20 year olds, will drink regardless.  Turning alcohol into a "forbidden fruit" makes it all the more enticing, and forcing it underground makes it far more dangerous than it has to be.  And infantilizing young adults will only lead them to be...less mature about it.  Who woulda thunk it?

And then of course is the "life is cheap over there" argument, which also does not hold water.  If life is so much cheaper in Europe, Canada, etc, why do they have universal healthcare, stronger social safety nets, generally better educational systems, higher life expectancies, and lower poverty rates than the USA?  That's because life is really NOT cheaper over there after all.  Again, who woulda thunk it?

And then there is the old chestnut that "we don't have the public transport infrastructure to handle young adult drinking like they do".  It is technically true that the USA is a car culture and our public transportation is inferior to most of Europe's, but the same is true for Canada, and they set their drinking age at 18 or 19 depending on the province.  Ditto for Australia and New Zealand, who both set it at 18, and there are still some parts of Europe, particularly areas of the UK, where you need a car to get around for the most part.  Besides, if our public transportation infrastructure cannot handle 18-20 year olds, they would be even less able to handle the much larger 21+ age group as well, and once again, all roads either lead to either Prohibiton for all or legal drinking for all adults, period.  If you give the ageists enough rope...

How about the idea that Americans are too ethnically and racially diverse to handle drinking at 18?  Not only is that, well, racist, but even if that dubious claim were true, it would also be an argument for Prohibition or greater authoritarianism in general.  Same goes for other specious arguments about Americans having less "social capital" and being too hyper-individualistic compared to other countries, as well as arguments about "affluenza" and "spoiled children", and also arguments about "family breakdown" and a "nation of semi-orphans".

Note that the typical "kids today" arguments often contradict one another.  And even if one were to concede that "kids today" are more infantilized compared to both previous generations as well as the rest of the world, which is debatable though it seems to have some merit, the solution is NOT to infantilize young adults even further still!  The road to serfdom is indeed paved with the ostensibly "good intentions" of "protecting" young people (from themselves), which is gradually expanded to include older and older age groups with every passing generation it seems.  And what better time than now for a U-turn?

And lest anyone trot out the "21 saves lives" argument, keep in mind that that has also been debunked as well by numerous studies, and most thoroughly and eloquently so by Miron and Tetelbaum (2009).  Even if it were true, surely the old joke about having a speed limit of 21 and a drinking age of 55 would save even more lives, and yet no sane person would propose such a thing.  Gee, I wonder why?  Funny how "if it saves one life, it's worth it" and "think of the children" seems to only apply when it's convenient for the dominant age group in society.

Let America be America again, and lower the drinking age to 18.  If you're old enough to go to war, you're old enough to go to the bar.  'Nuff said.

QED

Pennsylvania Raises Smoking Age To 21

It's official, Pennsylvania just raised the legal age limit for tobacco products from 18 to 21, effective July 1, 2020, making them the 19th state (and counting) to do so.  And the new law also expands the legal definition of tobacco products to include vaping products as well, since apparently they didn't even have an age limit for vaping products at all (though the federal age limit of 18 applied by default from 2016 onwards).

The part about including nicotine vapes in the definition of tobacco products is totally reasonable.  But raising the age limit to 21 is really not justified at all.  And Pennsylvania had been seeing so much progress in reducing teen smoking and vaping already, mainly due to tax hikes on both.  It would really be a shame to risk derailing such progress now with such an utterly illiberal and ageist law.

Yes, there is an exception in the new law for active military and veterans, who only need to be 18 or older instead of 21 to buy tobacco products.  But that one silver lining does still not make it OK to deny adult rights to otherwise legal adults over 18 who are legally old enough to join the military, regardless of whether they are actually in the military or not.  Thus, the exception does not actually resolve the inherent ageism and hypocrisy of this otherwise bad law.

I like to joke about "the other Tri-State Area", where NY, NJ, and PA all meet.  Port Jervis, NY, Montague, NJ, and Matamoras, PA are all right next to each other, and Matamoras is basically "come for the fireworks, stay for the cigarettes", since fireworks are legal in PA to sell to nonresidents, cigarettes are cheaper in PA, and the age limit in PA for tobacco has been 18 (until July 2020) while it is 21 in NY and NJ.  Looks like the tobacco part of that equation will no longer be true, at least the age limit part, and the price difference is also narrower now for cigarettes, and reversed for vape products, due to the tax hikes.  And gas is also more expensive now in PA than either of the other two states, while NJ gas is almost as pricey as NY now.  Thus the whole microeconomic dynamics of "the other Tri-State Area" are fundamentally different now, except for the fireworks of course.

Finally, Some "Reefer Sanity" In The Vaping Debate

It seems that at least some pundits, politicians, and public health officials are just starting to catch up with reality.  There is rapidly mounting evidence now that the primary culprit in the mystery vaping illness (that has killed over 40 people and sickened at least 2000 in the USA as of November 15, 2019) is the thickener additive Vitamin E Acetate in mostly black-market or counterfeit THC cartridges. This "thick and greasy" oil is harmless when used topically or ingested orally, but when inhaled it is apparently VERY bad for your lungs, much like any other "thick and greasy" oil would logically be.  And finally, several cannabis legalization and even medicalization states are belatedly banning or trying to ban its use in both legal and illegal THC cartridges, since until now almost no state banned or restricted this additive.

Better late than never, but honestly, what the hell took them so long?

THIS is what more states need to be doing.  Legalize cannabis, keep vaping legal in general, but regulate better and root out any bad actors in the legitimate market, while cracking down on any remaining illicit market that continues to hawk questionable wares.  In contrast, broad vaping or flavor bans, as well as cannabis prohibition and/or age limits set higher than 18, will only drive more customers to the black market, essentially pouring gasoline on the fire.  And those who foolishly opted for the later strategy while dithering over the real cause now have the blood of over 2000 Americans on their hands.

Of course, Vitamin E Acetate may not be the only culprit.  Other additives may also be to blame, as can perhaps the toxic cadmium fumes from cheaply-made and janky vaping devices and cartridges often made overseas (which can also be true for counterfeit nicotine vapes too, by the way).  And possibly pesticide contamination as well.  But again, in any case regulation would still work far better than prohibition to really get to the root of the problem.

As for the youth vaping epidemic driven by nicotine vapes, which is often disingenuously conflated with the mystery vaping illness, the best way to quash that is to raise the tax on nicotine-containing vape products, cap and phase-down the nicotine content of vape products down to European and Israeli levels, strictly enforce the existing age limit of 18 on vendors rather than raise it to 21, restrict vape advertising to be similar to the way it currently is for combustible tobacco products, and stop hyping this ridiculous moral panic so damn much for once.

So what are we waiting for? 

It's Not Just JUUL: The (Un-)American Vaping Association (And Trump) Also Throws Young Adults Under The Bus

As Trump announced the other day that his administration is looking at, among other things, raising the federal age limit for vaping products from 18 to 21 (which would require an act of Congress), the president of the American Vaping Association, Gregory Conley announced that he (and by extension, his trade group) openly supported the move as an alternative to prohibition.  Such a stance of regulatory appeasement by throwing 18-20 year old young adults under the bus to protect the vaping industry is cowardly at best, and will ultimately backfire as well.

And it is also all the more nonsensical given how the mysterious vaping lung illness that is sweeping the nation is driven primarily by black-market or counterfeit THC cartridges, not legal and legitimate nicotine vapes, and literally on the same day it was announced that they found further confirmatory evidence that the additive Vitamin E Acetate in the rogue THC cartridges is most likely the main culprit in causing this illness.  It is basically a thick, greasy oil that was NEVER meant to be inhaled, and can cause lipoid pneumonia when one does so.  Though likely other additives or contaminants could be causing it as well, such as cadmium fumes from the jankier vape devices themselves, since not all cases are consistent with lipoid pneumonia, and may be cadmium pneumonitis or metal fume fever instead.  And the Trump trade war with China may have led companies to shift to the use of cheaper and lower-quality devices and cartridges from 2018 onwards, ironically.

Thus, we at Twenty-One Debunked hereby excommunicate the American Vaping Association, just as we already did with the quislings at JUUL Labs.  And we can also add Trump 45 to the list as well now.  May their names and memory be forever blotted out.

The Needham, Massachusetts "Miracle", Debunked

Remember when Needham, Massachusetts made history in 2005 by being the first place in the USA to raise the age limit for tobacco to 21 in modern times?  And how the propoents of Tobacco 21 laws used them as an example of how successful such laws supposedly are at reducing teen smoking?  Well, a new article came out that thoroughly debunks that claim.  Scratch that, it debones, slices, dices, and juliennes it, and lays waste to its remains for good.

From 2006 to 2010 (the original study curiously did not include data before 2006), Needham did indeed see a faster drop in smoking rates among high school students compared to surrounding communities which kept the age limit at 18.  But from 2010 to 2012, the reverse was true: surrounding communities that kept it at 18 began to see faster declines in teen smoking rates than Needham.  This inconvenient fact was acknowledged buried in the original study (that went up to 2012) used to sing the praises of Tobacco 21, so it was not simply an oversight by the authors.  And according to the publicly available data that can be gleaned from schools in the surrounding communities, by 2014 the pattern reversed entirely, with the neighboring towns seeing larger net declines in teen smoking (59 to 77% drop) than Needham (40% drop) since 2006.  Hardly miraculous.  And by 2016, we see that some of these other towns raised the tobacco age limit to 21, but without seeing any further decrease in teen smoking (in fact, they saw a slight increase from 2014 to 2016).  If that's "success", we'd really hate to see what failure looks like.

So what explains the short-term success in the first few years in Needham?  Well, it could simply be have been a real but short-lived (and hollow) effect of the policy, just as Miron and Tetelbaum (2009) saw with the 21 drinking age versus traffic fatalities in the 1980s, with the effect being fairly small, dissipating after the first year or two before rebounding later, and further limited to the early-adopting states only (while in the later-adopting, coerced states, it actually had a perverse effect, or at best no effect).  But Needham also increased their enforcement on vendors dramatically, and also had at least some other tobacco laws that surrounding communities lacked.  And the percentage of smokers under 18 who bought their own cigarettes from stores also declined in Needham but not in the other neighboring towns.

Thus, it is very likely that the early decline in teen smoking would have been just as large if not larger had they simply kept the age limit at 18 but stepped up enforcement all the same, ceteris paribus.

Indeed, one should note that Woodridge, Illinois saw a similarly large drop in teen smoking in an even shorter timeframe (just two years) from 1989 to 1991 while keeping the smoking age at 18.  Leominster, MA also saw a drop almost as large from 1989 to 1991 as well.  And NYC, who raised their age limit from 18 to 21 (with no grandfather clause) in 2014, did NOT see teen smoking rates drop any faster than in the nation as a whole from 2013 to 2015.  Thus, the most parsimonious explanation is that Needham's (short) success story was primarily (if not entirely) due to increased vendor enforcement interacting with secular trends, and not the raising of the age limit itself.  In any case, it turned out to be a promise built on sand all along, if not a total statistical mirage.

Tobacco 21 laws, just like the ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age, clearly belong on the trash heap of history.  And this is the final nail in the coffin.

One Year Later, Canada's Black Market For Cannabis Still Won't Die Quickly

One year after Canada's cannabis legalization went into effect on October 17, 2018, the black market still seems to be alive and well.  This is despite rather modest taxation of legal weed, and the fact that the age limit is 18 or 19 depending on the province, as opposed to 21 in the US states that have full legalization.  So what gives?

Apparently, there are chronic shortages of the herb throughout Canada that persist to this day, with the legal stores often selling out too quickly, and the black market dealers seem to have no difficulty filling the gap, and cheaper.  Why is this happening?  Well, it is clearly not due to any real scarcity, but the artificial scarcity of overregulation.  Most provinces only allow it at government-run stores which are few and far between, while the few privately-run ones are also few and far between due to a limited number of licenses.  The rollout of legal weed has been painfully and deliberately slow so as not to offend the public-health crowd too much, and they did not even sell edibles, beverages, or hashish yet (until this month, October 2019, a whole year after phase-one of legalization began).  So it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see how this would create shortages for illicit dealers to fill, as per the basic iron laws of supply and demand.

Thus, Canada's black market is due to somewhat different reasons (i.e. excessive federal and provincial overregulation causing chronic shortages) than the USA's black market (excessively high age limits and taxes, and a state-by-state patchwork quilt approach in the absence of federal legalization).  Either way, lessons should be learned from both countries.

Best thing for Canada to do?  Accelerate phase-two of legalization yesterday, as it is long overdue.  Consider a tax holiday for a few months, like Oregon did when legalization began there.  Ease up a bit on licensing regulations (and fees) for both producers and retailers.  Allow at least all liquor stores to sell weed alongside their booze, and further consider allowing any store that sells cigarettes to also sell weed as well.  And those provinces that set the age limit at 19 (including Manitoba, despite their drinking and tobacco smoking age being 18) should lower their age limits to 18.  Encourage current black market dealers to "go legit".  And once these things are done, then crack down on the black market.  Problem solved.

Of course, once the black market is dead and gone, then by all means, tax away.  But now is not the time for overtaxation or overregulation.

Remember, there is really no good reason why cannabis needs to be regulated any more stringently than alcohol or tobacco.  After all, while it is not completely harmless for everyone, the fact remains that by just about any objective, rational, scientific measure, cannabis is safer than alcohol, tobacco, most prescription drugs, aspirin, and even Tylenol, while it is less addictive than coffee.   Thus our laws and regulations need to align accurately with reality, since facts > feelings, even in a "post-truth" society.

On the plus side, after a year of legalization the fears of increased carnage on the highways from stoned drivers and stuff like that apparently did not materialize in Canada.  Or any other dire problem for that matter.  But we could have told you that long ago.

Note To Spammers and Advertisers: Stay Off Of This Blog!

To anyone who has been spamming and advertising questionable things in the comments section of our blog posts, we at Twenty-One Debunked are asking you to stop doing so.  Yesterday.  Just because of the subject matter of our blog posts or the fact that they contain certain key words, it does NOT mean that you should take that as an invitation to hawk your sketchy wares here.  Needless to say, I have deleted all of your posts.  Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

HALF Of America Now Has A Smoking/Vaping Age Of 21

As of July 2019, HALF of the American population now lives in jurisdictions with a tobacco/nicotine smoking/vaping age of 21 now.  It is a total of 18 states as of September 2019, and hundreds (if not thousands) of localities, and given the population distribution it adds up at least half of the population living in such places.  And now Pennsylvania, currently 18 statewide (with none of their localities setting it any higher), but soon to be surrrounded on all sides by states with an age limit of 21, unfortunately looks to join them as well.

That is a shame, since Pennsylvania has seen more progress than the national average in terms of reducing teen smoking (and less of an increase in teen vaping) in recent years, while the increase in teen vaping continues unabated nationwide regardless of the states who raised the age limit to 21 in recent years.  Pennsylvania raised their cigarette tax and implement a hefty vape tax on recent years, so that could be part of their relative success story.

UPDATE:  As of November 27, 2019, Pennsylvania raised their smoking age to 21, effective July 1, 2020.  And New York's hike to 21 has just gone into effect in November as well.  Thus, now MORE than half of the American population (and growing!) lives under a Tobacco 21 regime now.

In The UK, Cooler Heads Still Prevail When It Comes To Vaping

With all of this mass hysteria going on in the USA over vaping, we should keep in mind that our friends across the pond in the UK are generally NOT freaking out about it.  So what is so different over there?

First of all, regulation of advertising and promotion of vaping products is stricter in the UK.  Also, the nicotine content of such products is capped at a level significantly lower (as much as two-thirds lower) than the average of today's leading brands in the USA.  Even when those very same brands, most notably JUUL (aka "may their name and memory be forever blotted out"), are sold in the UK, they have to reduce their nicotine levels to be able to sell them there.  That, of course, is an EU-wide regulation, binding on all member states including the UK (at least until Brexit, just to Regrexit, if finalized).  The dose makes the poison, basically, and capping it greatly reduces (though does not eliminate) adverse side effects, not to mention the chances of young experimenters becoming addicted to nicotine so disturbingly quickly.

Also, the age limit is 18 over there (strictly enforced on vendors, just like regular cigarettes and alcohol), and there are no flavor bans either.  If anything, they seem to have an even wider variety of flavors.

Public Health England (PHE) certainly does NOT recommend that non-smokers ever take up the habit of vaping, but they do encourage current adult smokers to switch to vaping if they can't quit nicotine otherwise.  And they caution vapers not to vape any illicit or homemade products or add anything to the legitimate pods or liquid. Overall, authorities and the public health community keep a cool head about vaping, and guess what?  In the absence of moral panic, there does not seem be any real vaping epidemic among young people over there, and while there have been occasional reports of adverse reactions in general, there so far have not been any reported cases of the mystery vaping-related lung illness that the USA is currently grappling with.  (Of course, as we have already noted before, that mystery illness is primarily due to unregulated black-market vape products, especially THC ones, which often contain very questionable additives.)

That’s not to say that nobody is freaking out over there at all.  Every country has its share of that it seems.  But over in the UK at least, it currently seems to be confined to the tabloids for the most part.

We can really learn a lot from our friends across the pond.  So let's be adult about this, shall we?

Calling It QUITS

There is a new bipartisan bill in Congress now, called the Quell Underage Inhaling of Toxic Substances (QUITS) Act.  And to be honest, it is a mixed bag overall.  It would:

• Ban flavored e-cigarettes (i.e. vape products) and other flavored tobacco products, including menthol.
• Increase the federal cigarette tax from $1 per pack to $3 per pack.
• Create a tax on e-cigarettes equivalent to $3 per pack.
• Increase annual funding for the CDC's Office of Smoking and Health from $210 million to $500 million.

The first item on the list, the flavor ban as we have noted before, is too broad and largely due to the moral panic around vaping these days.  Throwing out the proverbial baby with the bathwater is likely counterproductive, and slopes are slipperier than they appear.  other items on the list are overall a good idea though.  At least all of these also apply to, and does not ignore, the real elephant in the room:  combustible cigarettes and other combustible tobacco products, which kill over 480,000+ Americans per year, while vaping has killed eight people so far in all of its history, and even then, mostly via black-market THC products rather than legitimate ones.  And while even one such death is one too many, compared to combustible cigarettes, that's essentially a mere rounding error in statistical terms.

Another strength is that it does not raise the age limit for tobacco or vaping products at the federal level.  And that, Twenty-One Debunked is happy about.

So what can be added to the bill to improve it, while also removing or narrowing the flavor ban?  Here are some of our ideas:

• Cap and reduce the maximum allowable nicotine content of vape products down to current European and Israeli levels. 
• In fact, while we're at it, cap and gradually phase down the maximum allowable nicotine content of combustible cigarettes down to a non-addictive level as well.
• Tax vape products in a manner that is directly proportional to nicotine content.
• Enforce better (targeting vendors) the current federal age limit of 18 for both vaping and combustible tobacco products.
• Restrict advertising of vape products, similar to how it is for combustible tobacco products.
• Actually REGULATE the vaping industry, and require quality control testing.
• Crack down on black-market and counterfeit vape products, and root out any bad actors in the legitimate market as well.
• Legalize and regulate cannabis at the federal level, and implement strict quality control standards as well for both cannabis as well as tobacco/nicotine products.
• Require ALL vape products, whether nicotine, THC, CBD, or otherwise, to transparently disclose all ingredients, and immediately ban the use of questionable additives believed to be linked to the outbreak of the mystery vaping illness.

Let's be adult about this, shall we? 

When It Comes To Vaping, Don't Throw Out The Baby With The Bathwater

In the wake of both the mysterious vaping-related lung illness epidemic, and also the recent increase in vaping among young people (something for which Tobacco 21 laws have apparently done NOTHING to stem the tide, by the way) both the federal government and several state and local governments are beginning to crack down on vaping to one degree or another.  Yes, Houston, we have a problem.  But it is important to keep a cool head and not throw out the proverbial baby with the bathwater.

The FDA plans to ban all flavored vape products other than tobacco (yuck!) or unflavored (meh), as is Michigan.  San Francisco, on the other hand, already passed a ban on ALL vape products regardless of flavor.  The state of New York just passed an emergency executive ban on all flavored vape products other than tobacco or menthol, effective October 4th.  And California's governor announced a crackdown on counterfeit vape products, though he lacks the authority to pass any flavor bans without the state legislature passing it.

Going too far with such bans would only increase the very black market that is the most likely cause of the mystery vaping illness (though with that it is mostly black-market THC products, though some appear to have been nicotine only).  At the same time, while vaping can help some adult smokers quit, it's not like there really is any overarching benefit society from nicotine that comes in fruity, candy, or dessert-like flavors either.  It really is a balancing act.

Twenty-One Debunked once grudgingly supported some degree of flavor bans in the past, mainly as an alternative to Tobacco 21 laws, but in light of current events, we no longer support such bans today.

New York's flavor ban--if there must be one at all--is somewhat more reasonable than the ones that don't even allow menthol.  And clearly counterfeit products need to be cracked down upon, and bad actors and questionable additives rooted out at once.  And capping and reducing nicotine levels of vape products down to European and Israeli levels would also make such products less addictive than they are currently.  But anything more stringent than these things would likely do more harm than good.  (That goes for setting the age limit any higher than 18 as well.)

As for cannabis vaping products, the best way to eradicate the sketchy and janky black and gray market products is to fully legalize and regulate cannabis nationwide, period, with an age limit of 18, strict quality control, and reasonable taxes on such products.  And again, crack down on counterfeit products and products with questionable additives.  But that would make too much sense, wouldn’t it?

So let's be adult about this, shall we?

UPDATE:  Looks like Michigan's emergency executive flavor ban contains a loophole that allows flavored nicotine-free e-liquids and pods, and also allows flavorless nicotine packets one can combine with such e-liquids (albeit sold separately).  So this particular ban is actually far more reasonable than meets the eye, while still having the intended effect of making it somewhat harder and less convenient for people under 18 to vape flavored nicotine.  And it will likely keep vape shops open for business for the foreseeable future, while JUUL will still get a swift kick in the margins now that their ready-made pods will be verboten if they have any flavor other than tobacco.

And at the other extreme, on September 24th, Massachusetts Governor Baker has literally banned ALL vape products for four months by an emergency executive action.  And that will just throw gasoline on the fire by dramatically growing the black market. DERP!  Didn't think that one through, did you Charlie?