About That Mysterious Lung Illness Related To Vaping (Updated)

There have been recent reports of a mysterious lung illness, a pneumonia-like syndrome that appears to be linked to vaping.  Fingers are being pointed all over the place right now, since it is still not clear exactly what (let alone which products) are causing it and why, but several theories abound, and there are some very strong, if not probative, clues now.

Here's what we do know so far.  As of September 16, 2019, there have been over 450 possible cases (revised down to 380 confirmed cases) of severe lung illness and/or damage (and even six seven confirmed deaths) in the USA that may be linked to vaping, though the symptoms haven't always followed a consistent pattern.  Not all cases have had all variables teased out, and it all still needs to be fleshed out some more, but vaping of some sort is the only factor that we know is common to them all.  And it's not just young people either (though many of them are), as even people in their thirties, forties, fifties, and now sixties have also succumbed to this syndrome as well.

Many, but by no means all, of the cases involved vape products containing THC (i.e. the primary psychoactive component of cannabis), and virtually all of those had been purchased on the black market (mostly in non-legalization states) based on what we know so far.  And many of those have been found to contain questionable additives, such as Vitamin E oil, that are NOT friendly to the lungs.

Thus far, only one case has been linked to a THC vape product (of undisclosed brand) purchased from an undisclosed licensed dispensary in Oregon, which could be a fluke or perhaps confounded by other products, but it is still possible that even some legitimate products contain such harmful additives, as not all legalization states specifically ban all of such additives.  (Why authorities are being so hush-hush on the details of this case, we really don't know.)

As for the cases that reportedly only involved nicotine, keep in mind that there are also many counterfeit nicotine vape products going around too, so that could perhaps be another culprit in this epidemic.  (That, and perhaps underreporting of illicit THC vaping in non-legalization states.)  That said, as much as JUUL Labs wants to believe and assert it, this does NOT yet automatically exonerate legitimate brand nicotine-containing vape products such as theirs.  And no one should pretend that it does either.

(Separately, there are also three recent reports of seizures and even one report of a stroke thought to be linked to the JUUL brand specifically, presumably due to their very high nicotine content, so they really shouldn't be so smug.  Especially since JUUL is basically circling the drain right now.)

It is important not to create or fan the flames of a moral panic about vaping in general, as that is likely to be counterproductive.  Much more research is necessary until we know more.  So what advice should be given in the meantime?

• First and foremost, do NOT vape, juul, or dab anything that you get from the black market, whether it's THC or otherwise.  They are inherently unregulated by definition, with no quality control, and thus you really don't know what you are getting.
• Especially avoid the pseudo-legitimate sounding (but actually always black market) THC brands "Dank Vapes", "Chronic Carts", and "West Coast Carts".  Avoid them like the plague!  (Ditto for the apparently very bad actor, gray market CBD vape brands "Diamond CBD", "Green Machine", "Magic Puff", and "Yolo!" as well.)
• Do your research and due diligence before buying any vaping product on the legitimate market as well.  Google is your friend, but don't believe everything you hear or read.  This is true whether it is nicotine, THC, CBD, "just flavoring", or anything else for that matter.
• Avoid any oil-based vape products when possible, especially for unfamiliar brands.
• Do NOT modify vaping devices or use any homebrew products with vaping devices.
• And last but not least, if you are not currently addicted to nicotine, do NOT vape (or smoke) anything that contains nicotine.  Keep in mind that all JUUL brand products contain high levels of nicotine, as do many other brands as well.

That seems like sensible advice for now.  As for government officials, the best thing they can do right now is regulate the vaping industry better to quash bad actors and improve quality control, cap nicotine levels, and also legalize cannabis nationwide for everyone over 18 (while keeping the taxes low) in order to quash the black market as well.

And for those who are still concerned:

If you currently vape nicotine, DO NOT go back to combustible cigarettes or any other combustible tobacco products!  If you are concerned about vaping, you can always switch to snus, lozenges, or any of the available nicotine replacement therapy products currently on the market (patches, gums, lozenges, and inhalers).  At the very least, stick to the top-shelf stuff.

If you currently vape "just flavoring", be sure that it really IS "just flavoring" (spoiler alert:  it usually is NOT, and all JUUL brand products contain high levels of nicotine).  But really, what's the point of that?

If you currently vape cannabis derivatives (whether it's THC, CBD, or both), and you don't have access to legal and licensed dispensaries where you live and/or you still don't trust the stuff on the shelves there, but you still don’t want to combust (smoke) weed, there are always dry-herb vaporizers out there (remember those?), as well as edibles, capsules, oils, and tinctures for using cannabis products orally.  Or at least stick to the top-shelf stuff for now.  But DO NOT vape, juul, or dab anything from the black market, the street, pop-up shops, or any homemade concoctions.  EVER.

(For the record, at least in some states like Oregon, with as low as $5 per eighth and $40 per ounce in some places, plain old bud purchased from legal stores is now actually cheaper than vape cartridge concoctions after several years of legalization there.)

Let's be adult about this, shall we?

UPDATE:  As of September 20, 2019, the number of reported cases of what is now called Vaping Associated Pulmonary Injury (VAPI) has crossed the 500 mark, and the number of deaths has increased to eight.  All deaths, and all reported cases except one, have occurred in the USA (the remaining one reported case was in Canada), and no other countries.

As of September 26, 2019, the number of confirmed cases has now crossed the 800 mark, and the number of deaths has now reached 12.  Again, if you must vape, stay away from anything bought on the street or in pop-up shops, or anything otherwise suspicious or sketchy in any way.  Consider alternative methods of use as noted above.  And if you notice any of the telltale signs and symptoms of VAPI, get thee to a doctor, stat!  And be sure to be honest about your vaping with them, so you will be properly treated with corticosteroids rather than antibiotics.

As of October 10, 2019, there are additional theories as to the cause of the outbreak, most notably acute "toxic chemical injury" to the lungs.  More specifically, it seems that inhalation of cadmium fumes from the solder in cheaply made vape pens and cartridges may be causing a particularly severe form of "metal fume fever" known as cadmium pneumonitis, which presents rather differently from lipoid pneumonia.  Though the oil (such as Vitamin E Acetate) causing lipoid pneumonia theory has not been entirely disproven either, as some cases do seem consistent with lipoid pneumonia, and there could in fact be more than one cause as well.  Caveat emptor.

JUUL Is Circling The Drain

Looks like JUUL Labs just bit off far more than they could ever possibly chew, and they are now choking on it as we speak.  These quislings have asked for a ton of karma for years now, and now they seem to be getting it.  Their share price is in warp-speed decline right now.  As per the famously time-tested Seneca effect, their growth was relatively slow at first, but it looks like their ruin will be very, very rapid indeed.

First, they managed to get a new generation of young people hooked on nicotine with a sleek, deceptively seductive, fruity- and candy-flavored product (with excessively high nicotine levels, and more addictive than conventional cigarettes) and even more deceptive, Big Tobacco-style marketing, all while bragging about how supposedly "woke" they were.  Then they made a deal with the devil himself, Big Tobacco, when they literally SOLD OUT to them.  And then when these cowardly quislings were finally called out on their misdeeds, they threw 18-20 year olds under the bus by supporting the ageist abomination that is Tobacco 21 laws.  They even threw the rest of the vaping industry under the bus as well.  At the end of the day, they are really nobody's friends, never were, and never will be either.

And now with that mysterious vaping-related illness reaching epidemic proportions, albeit most likely driven by black-market products with questionable additives, as well as homebrew concoctions and modified devices (though JUUL still has yet to be exonerated), the moral panic around vaping that JUUL effectively helped to create has reached such a fever pitch that the Trump administration (and several states) are passing or at least considering flavor bans for vape products.  That will be the final kiss of death for JUUL, since most of these proposed bans will only allow tobacco-flavored products (yuck!) or unflavored products (meh), not even menthol or mint.  Even if the ban is later lifted, if (when) it passes they are basically dead and done by that point.

And if that itself doesn't ultimately bankrupt them, the mounting lawsuits against them sure will.

Now a corporate "person" without a country, what ever will they do?  (Plays the world's smallest violin)

Somebody call the coroner quick, JUUL is now circling the drain as we speak.  Let's hope they take their Big Tobacco parent company, Altria (aka Philip Morris) down with them as well.  And no, we will never, ever mourn their loss, not in a million years.

Good riddance! May your name and memory be forever blotted out, JUUL.

UPDATE:  As of September 25, 2019, their CEO, Kevin Burns, was essentially forced to resign, replaced with a Big Tobacco executive from Altria, and they pulled all advertising from the USA.  And the company agreed to accept the flavor ban as well.  And now they are embroiled in a criminal investigation as well.

Don't Fear The Reefer: Why Fearmongering Backfires

The US Surgeon General recently issued a chilling warning about cannabis, particularly in reference to young people and pregnant women.  While this announcement does contain some kernels of truth, it was overall quite exaggerated and melodramatic fear-mongering, with a touch of Reefer Madness thrown in for good measure.  The National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML) did a reasonably good job of setting the record straight, of course, but Twenty-One Debunked would like to add to that.

While NORML is indeed correct that legalization and regulation are far more effective at protecting vulnerable populations from any real risks of cannabis, and include age restrictions in the list, they unfortunately punt on exactly what sort of age restrictions they would support.  In an effort to remain neutral as far as the age question goes, and to not be accused of condoning teen cannabis use, they simply leave it unanswered.  And that is a shame, because setting the age limit too high only guarantees that the black market with its products of unknown safety and quality will prevail (and does not check IDs either), and also throws young adults under the bus in the process as well.  As we have noted repeatedly before, there is really no hard scientific evidence supporting an age limit any higher than 18 for cannabis.  Yes, you read that right.

The Surgeon General disingenuously conflates 18-24 year old young adults with people under 18, all the way down to 12 year olds, in fact.  That is a serious category error at best, if not full-blown ageism.  While there is evidence that using cannabis before age 18 (especially before 15, and/or heavily and frequently) is riskier than using it after 18, and that excessive use can be harmful at any age, there is really no hard scientific evidence that using it at 18 is any more harmful than using it at 21, 25, or even 30 for that matter.  And the "no safe level of exposure" claim is also unscientific and highly misleading as well.

It is a proven fact that the human brain continues to develop well into the 30s and 40s, and perhaps even beyond that, but somehow the Surgeon General leaves that inconvenient truth out of his warning about "marijuana and the developing brain".  And while the brain is thus still developing well beyond 18, the key difference is that it is no longer developing at a fundamental level anymore much beyond roughly mid-adolescence.  Thus any brain development that occurs from 18-25 is essentially on the same spectrum as any development that occurs after 25, making 21 or 25 completely arbitrary age cutoffs.

Exaggerating the actual and (mostly) theoretical dangers of cannabis use has the unfortunate side effect of losing credibility among young people, who then are less likely to believe anything about the very real risks of not only cannabis, but alcohol and various other (and far worse) substances as well.  Thus, such a boneheaded strategy is thus doomed to backfire, especially among the age group being targeted the most by such messages.

Twenty-One Debunked does not encourage anyone of any age to use cannabis, alcohol, tobacco, or any other substances.  But if you do, it is important to be an informed consumer and do your research rather than blindly believe everything you hear or read.

About That Mysterious Lung Illness Related To Vaping

There have been recent reports of a mysterious lung illness that appears to be linked to vaping.  Fingers are being pointed all over the place right now, since it is still not clear exactly what (let alone which products) are causing it and why.

Here's what we do know so far.  As of the end of August 2019, there have been over 200 possible cases of severe lung illness and/or damage (and even one reported death) in the USA that may be linked to vaping, though the symptoms haven't always followed a consistent pattern.  Not all cases have been confirmed, and it all still needs to be fleshed out and other variables accounted for, but vaping of some sort is the only factor that we know is common to them all.  And it's not just young people either (though many of them are), as even people in their thirties have reportedly also succumbed to it as well.

Many, but by no means all, of the cases involved vape products containing THC (i.e. the primary psychoactive component of cannabis), and virtually all of those had been purchased on the black market (mostly in non-legalization states) based on what we know so far.  And as much as JUUL Labs wants to believe and assert it, this does NOT yet automatically exonerate nicotine-containing vape products such as theirs.  And no one should pretend that it does.

(Separately, there are also three recent reports of seizures thought to be linked to the JUUL brand specifically, presumably due to their very high nicotine content, so they really shouldn't be so smug.)

It is important not to create or fan the flames of a moral panic about vaping in general, as that is likely to be counterproductive.  Much more research is necessary until we know more.  So what advice should be given in the meantime?

• First and foremost, do NOT vape anything that you get from the black market, whether it's THC or otherwise.  They are inherently unregulated by definition, with no quality control, and thus you really don't know what you are getting.
• Especially avoid the pseudo-legitimate sounding (but actually always black market) THC brands "Dank Vapes", "Chronic Carts", and "West Coast Carts".  Avoid them like the plague!  (Ditto for the apparently very bad actor, gray market CBD brand "Diamond CBD" as well.)
• Do your research and due diligence before buying any vaping product on the legitimate market as well.  Google is your friend, but don't believe everything you hear or read.  This is true whether it is nicotine, THC, CBD, "just flavoring", or anything else for that matter.
• Avoid any oil-based vape products when possible, especially for unfamiliar brands.
• Do NOT modify vaping devices or use any homebrew products with vaping devices.
• And last but not least, if you are not currently addicted to nicotine, do NOT vape (or smoke) anything that contains nicotine.  Keep in mind that all JUUL brand products contain high levels of nicotine, as do many other brands as well.

That seems like sensible advice for now.  As for government officials, the best thing they can do right now is regulate the vaping industry better to quash bad actors and improve quality control, cap nicotine levels, and also legalize cannabis nationwide for everyone over 18 (while keeping the taxes low) in order to quash the black market as well.

Let's be adult about this, shall we?

UPDATE:  As of September 5, 2019, researchers seem to be zeroing in on the most likely cause: specific additives found in primarily black market THC vaping oils and cartridges.  Thus far, only one case has been possibly linked to a THC vape product (of undisclosed brand) purchased from a licensed dispensary (in Oregon), which could be a fluke or confounded by other products, but it is possible that even some legitimate products contain such harmful additives.  And while nothing has been ruled out as yet, the aforementioned advice still remains sound:  avoid all black market vape products, don't vape nicotine if you aren't already addicted, and do your research.

As of September 6, the number of possible (not all of which confirmed) cases of the mystery vaping illness has now reached at least 450, including four confirmed deaths and possibly a fifth one as well.  At this rate, we would hate to see what the casualty toll will ultimately climb to by Friday the 13th (next week).  Regulators really need to root out the questionable additives and bad actors, yesterday.

As of September 9, several theories abound as to what exactly is causing this now-epidemic mysterious illness, from questionable additives (such as Vitamin E oil) to black market products to home-made concoctions influenced by YouTube videos to even Chinese tariffs steering vapers towards cheaper and janky products (and this means nicotine too).  Again, it is still under investigation, but the above advice nonetheless remains sound for the time being. 

And for those who are still concerned:

If you currently vape nicotine, DO NOT go back to combustible cigarettes or any other combustible tobacco products!  If you are concerned about vaping, you can always switch to snus, lozenges, or any of the available nicotine replacement therapy products currently on the market (patches, gums, lozenges, and inhalers).  At the very least, stick to the top-shelf stuff.

If you currently vape "just flavoring", be sure that it really IS "just flavoring" (spoiler alert:  it usually is NOT, and all JUUL brand products contain high levels of nicotine).  But really, what's the point of that?

If you currently vape cannabis derivatives (whether it's THC, CBD, or both), and you don't have access to legal and licensed dispensaries where you live and/or you still don't trust the stuff on the shelves there, but you still don’t want to combust (smoke) weed, there are always dry-herb vaporizers out there (remember those?), as well as edibles, capsules, oils, and tinctures for using cannabis products orally.  Or at least stick to the top-shelf stuff for now.  But DO NOT vape, juul, or dab anything from the black market, the street, pop-up shops, or any homemade concoctions.  EVER.

You May Not Like It, But Here's the Answer to (At Least Greatly Reducing) College Rape and Sexual Assault

(NOTE:  This is an updated version of a post from 2018)

As we had noted in a previous post five years ago, rape and sexual assault is a persistent epidemic in the USA, including (but not limited to) college campuses nationwide.  Lately, the chattering classes have been endlessly wringing their hands about it for years, but little real progress has been made in recent years, and since the Trump administration began we seem to have even regressed a bit in that regard, the #MeToo movement notwithstanding.

Most rapes and sexual assaults, especially those involving college students on or near campus, are committed by people known to the victim, and many if not most of those involve alcohol to one degree or another, whether by the perpetrator, the victim, or both.  We should first and foremost note that the only thing that actually causes rape is the rapists themselves, period.   While alcohol (among other substances) can indeed fuel it and is often used as a weapon to incapacitate victims, rape would simply not happen without rapists, period.  And the onus should always fall on men not to rape in the first place, instead of falling on women not to "get themselves raped".  The fact that so many people still deny such an obvious truth in 2018 shows just how far we have yet to go towards eliminating or even reducing this epidemic, and those who blame or otherwise put the onus on potential or actual victims are in fact part of the problem.

We seriously need to drain the proverbial swamp of rape culture, yesterday, and thus revoke the rapists' social license to operate.  Culturally, we need to tackle the root causes of sexual violence by rejecting the highly toxic "commodity model" of sexuality and replacing it with the "performance model" (while also avoiding the negative connotations and pitfalls of the word "performance"), and more generally rejecting the "dominator model" of society and replacing it with the "partnership model".  And for alcohol, we need to recognize that while adopting a "Prohibition-Lite" approach of any sort is most likely to backfire and would throw the proverbial baby out with the bathwater, its link with sexual violence still needs to be dealt with in the meantime as cultural changes can take much time to occur.

So what measures can be taken in the very near term to quickly reduce or at least take the dangerous edge off of this seemingly intractable epidemic?  The reader may or may not like the answer, but here goes:

1. Lower the legal drinking age to 18, yesterday, full stop.  The 21 drinking age makes drinking that much more dangerous than it has to be by forcing it underground, which can put young drinkers in more dangerous situations that increase the risk of sexual assault, and the law itself can be used as a cudgel to silence victims.
2. Raise the tax on alcoholic beverages, both federally as well as at the state and local level (especially in college towns), with extra levies on bulk alcohol such as kegs, cases, and handles. Studies have shown a significant inverse correlation between alcohol prices and rape in general.
3. Legalize cannabis for everyone 18 and older, yesterday.  Cannabis is clearly the safer choice in that regard, as it is highly unlikely to fuel violence or be used as a date-rape drug the way that alcohol all too often is.
4. Pass "Yes Means Yes" laws (aka affirmative consent laws) similar to California's.  If properly written, these laws will essentially eliminate the concept of so-called "gray area rape" by putting the onus on the initiator of sexual activity to be sure that they actually have consent before proceeding further.
5. Last but not least, hold the perpetrators accountable for a change, no matter how powerful or privileged they happen to be.  That includes enforcing both criminal laws as well as campus conduct policies to the fullest extent of the law.  No more Brock Turners.

As for the idea of colleges trying to influence upward the prices of cheap alcohol at parties (particularly Greek parties) that are typically $5 or so at the door for all-you-can-drink, that would be rather difficult to enforce in practice.  But if the drinking age was lowered to 18, most frats would likely end up having a "going out of business party" since their modern-day speakeasy services would no longer be necessary.  And those that remain would, in practice, throw less frequent parties and/or  ones with less beer (or liquor) to go around if the tax on such beverages is also hiked as well.

As for "Yes Means Yes" laws, there has been quite a bit of confusion, contention, and obfuscation among the chattering classes as to what such laws really are.  To reiterate the difference between different types of rape laws, the following is a good summary:

Force standard (archaic): No Means Yes
Consent standard (current): No Means No
Affirmative consent standard: Yes Means Yes
MacDworkinist standard: Yes Means No

The third item on the list, the affirmative consent standard, is the one that we support. The archaic force standard is problematic for obvious reasons, while "No Means No" is necessary and important but NOT sufficient.   The essential difference between the "No Means No" and "Yes Means Yes" is that in the former, the default answer is "yes", and in the latter, the default answer is "no".  That's it. And the MacDworkinist standard is, to put it mildly, a logistical nightmare at best and a dystopian kettle of fish at worst, not to mention infantilizing and agency-denying to women.  We would never support that.

Doing these things will go a long way towards reducing the rape and sexual assault epidemic in the near term.  Anything less would be uncivilized. So what are we waiting for?

Even The New York Post Supports Lowering The Drinking Age to 18

Apparently, even the conservative New York Post--or at least Scott Johnston, the author of a recent article--supports lowering the drinking age to 18.  And yet, very few progressives and Democrats will openly come out in favor of doing such. In fact, many support Tobacco 21 laws these days (along with some Republicans too).  So what gives?

In the USA, it seems that even many self-proclaimed progressives are not as progressive as they claim to be, and we already know that most Democrats are now neoliberal corporate shills at best.  And of course, we know there are plenty of "third way" New Democrats that are closet (or not so closet) authoritarians in many ways.

It would be truly Kafkaesque if one day Republicans become seen as the party of youth rights, something they are not exactly know for, and the Democrats seen as the (selectively) puritanical prude lobby.  So the Dems need to do a serious gut check if they want to win elections in the future.

Twenty-One Debunked Opposes Most Drug Testing

In light of recent reports of student drug testing now including nicotine in some schools due to the moral panic over vaping, Twenty-One Debunked needs to reiterate our general opposition to such testing:

• We oppose any drug testing that is not strictly to determine current impairment or "fitness for duty" in cases of driving, operating machinery, or working at safety-sensitive jobs.
• We oppose any drug testing that privileges or excludes some people over others, whether by age, socioeconomic status, race, or any other suspect or quasi-suspect classification.
• We oppose schools and employers having any jurisdiction whatsoever over what students and employees do to their own bodies off the clock and off the premises, as long as it does not unduly adversely affect their job or school performance and behavior.
• Even if the above criteria are satisfied, we still oppose any drug testing method that has detection times longer than a day or two at the cutoff used, and/or uses inactive metabolites as a proxy for the main substances being tested.  That excludes essentially everything except blood and saliva tests for most substances.  (Note that SCRAM bracelets and sweat testing for offenders in the 24/7 Program are an exception to this rule.)

Twenty-One Debunked, therefore, opposes the vast majority of drug testing done in this country.  We are the supposed land of the free, it's time to start acting like it!

We Still Excommunicate JUUL Labs (Updated)

(Editor's Note:  Twenty-One Debunked has never been affiliated in any way, shape or form with JUUL Labs or any other vaping, tobacco, alcohol, or cannabis company.  And we never will be, either.)

Dear JUUL Labs,

Since you were founded in 2015 as a spinoff from Pax Labs, you have always presented yourselves, at least publicly, as the underdog saving the world in the fight against the evil Big Tobacco.  Little did America know that you were about to pull the wool over everyone's eyes and make fools, and then cynics, of us all.

Why do we hate thee, JUUL?  Let us count the ways:

• You loudly proclaimed yourselves as the sworn enemy of Big Tobacco, but you began to copy their playbook awfully quickly in terms of advertising to young people and cynically implemented your own "anti-vaping", "anti-tobacco", and "holistic health education" progams in schools and youth camps. (You claimed that was just an oversight.  Riiiiiiight.)
• Your sham "educational" programs even told teens that your products were "totally safe" yet for "adults only" (wink wink).  And some of your summer camp programs apparently targeted children as young as eight years old.
• You recruited social media influencers with slick advertising campaigns that at least gave the appearance of deliberately targeting young people in marketing your products.  You also went out of your way to target Native Americans with your addictive poison-peddling as well.
• You chose a much higher nicotine level for your products than other vape brands, by far.  And your patented nicotine salt formulation clearly gives a much bigger "kick" of nicotine as well.  That was most likely to try to edge out the competition, and it worked--at the expense of a new generation of nicotine addicts, that is.
• You lowered your nicotine content when selling JUUL in the European Union and Israel (who by law set the maximum allowable nicotine content of vape products much lower than the American version of your products), but curiously still do not offer such reduced-nicotine products in the USA, or any nicotine-free products.
• You gave your products various kid-friendly fruity, candy, and dessert flavors, because reasons.  Or something.  I mean, we all know that adults need their nicotine vapes to taste like candy in order to help them quit smoking, right?
• Until very recently, you failed to adequately warn users that your products contain nicotine and are highly addictive.  Many young people did not even know that all JUULs contain nicotine, let alone such a high level of it.  And some still may not know yet.
• In fact, if anyone were to deliberately design the most effective and efficient way to surreptitiously get young people hooked on nicotine in the 21st century, it would really look an awful lot like JUUL.
• When the FDA finally blew the whistle on you in late 2018, you responded in the most cowardly way possible.  You decided to throw young adults under the bus by calling for the age limit for vaping products to be raised from 18 to 21, and you banned 18-20 year olds from your website.  And you still made no significant changes to your highly-addictive products, save for the removal of a few flavors in stores.
• And worst of all, you literally SOLD OUT to Altria Group (aka Philip Morris), whose name is literally synonymous with Big Tobacco.  You know, the evil industry you once claimed to be fighting against?  Your deal with the devil may have made you richer and bought you some temporary protection, but everything comes with a price, and your day will come very soon.
• Finally, thanks primarily to you, young people are losing even more rights now.

Thus, in light of the above grievances, we hereby excommunicate you, forever.  Here is your bell, book, and candle, you cowardly quislings.  Now go take your crack nicotine and shove it!

We at Twenty-One Debunked urge everyone to #BoycottJUUL yesterday.  If you don't currently smoke, vape, or otherwise use nicotine, don't start!  You are far better off without this highly addictive poison in any form, period, even if vaping does reduce most of its other toxic chemical satellites and byproducts compared with smoking.  But if you currently do, make it any brand but JUUL, and give 'em a swift kick in the margins!  And best of all, JUULers who switch to other vape brands may find it easier to phase out and finally quit all forms of nicotine for good.

New Tobacco 21 Study Leaves Us With More Questions Than Answers

A new and very preliminary study of recently-passed Tobacco 21 laws appears to find that such laws significantly reduce tobacco smoking (both recent smoking and current and established smoking) by as much as 39% among 18-20 year olds.  The study looked at survey results of 1869 18-22 year old young adults in 2016-2017 in 48 states and DC (excluding New York and Massachusetts), and compared those in states and localities that raised the tobacco age to 21 versus those that did not, and further compared 18-20 year olds versus 21-22 year olds, after adjusting for potential confounders such as cigarette taxes as well as demographics and parental and peer smoking.

However, there are still reasons to be skeptical of these findings:

• Correlation is not causation, and there may still be selection bias, reporting bias, and residual or unmeasured confounding.
• Only a few states and localities had an age limit of 21 for tobacco in 2016-2017, especially when New York and Massachusetts are excluded.
• In some of these few Tobacco 21 states/localities, the number of individuals surveyed was in the single digits.
• Even if these results are 100% due to the hike of the age limit to 21, the study may only be measuring short-term effects since the laws are so recent and only data from 2016-2017 were used.  More longitudinal data are needed.
• Such "early-adopter" effects may not be generalizable or durable, as we saw with the 21 drinking age according to Miron and Tetelbaum (2009).
• Data were collected from November 2016 through May 2017, and yet New Jersey was listed a Tobacco 21 state even though their law didn't go into effect until six months later in November 2017.  Thus, we noticed at least one potential coding error.
• California raised the cigarette tax significantly as of April 1, 2017, within the period of the study.  And Illinois and Chicago have raised their cigarette taxes several times in the years before and after Chicago's Tobacco 21 law that was implemented in 2016.
• Smoking was already on the decline nationwide long before any Tobacco 21 laws were passed, and the data are not adjusted for pre-existing trends.
• Vaping was not examined in this study, and in any case all of the data was from before the JUUL craze came on the scene.
• And most importantly, the study did NOT look at people under 18 at all.

Thus, these results are preliminary at best and need to be taken with at least a grain of salt, if not a whole pound.  Especially since, as we previously reported, according to the YRBSS data there is really no robust correlation between high school smoking or vaping rates and whether the smoking/vaping age is 18, 19, or 21.  And even in this new study of 18-22 year olds, the effects were limited to only those who had already tried cigarettes before, and that typically occurs well before 18.  But wait, isn't the strongest pro-21 argument that Tobacco 21 laws would reduce smoking (and vaping) among people under 18?

And for what it's worth, there is no evidence that Tobacco 21 laws (all of which now apply equally to vape products, by the way) have done anything to reduce the JUUL craze that began in very late 2017 and apparently continues unabated to this day in all states and localities regardless of the age limit.

Also, it just so happens that yet another recent and preliminary study was done, this time longitudinally using BRFSS data of 18-20 year olds from 2011-2016 compared to 23-25 year olds, and comparing the local tobacco age limits by metropolitan/micropolitan statistical area (MMSA).  This study, which was driven by even earlier adopters (mainly city and county-level Tobacco 21 ordinances), did find statistically significant reductions in current established smoking by 18-20 year olds that were not found for 23-25 year olds.  But the devil is really in the details, since the effect size was rather small (1.2 percentage points, and at most 3.1 percentage points in some models) for practical purposes, and may still have been driven by reporting bias, selection bias, and/or differential sensitivity by age to tobacco tax hikes at the same time.  And given how effect sizes for later adopters of any given policies tend to shrink over time compared to earlier adopters, these results do not look particularly encouraging.  Especially since a cursory look at the trendlines in the study finds that the slight divergence in smoking rates that emerges in 2014-2015 re-converges and essentially disappears by 2016, suggesting that the findings are likely driven by short-term effects rather than longer-term effects.

Bottom line:  it looks like the supposed benefits of raising the smoking/vaping age to 21 were, shall we say, all smoke and mirrors, at least for people under 18.  The supposed success of Needham, MA, for example, was likely a statistical fluke and/or a result of endogeneity, much like the "early adopter" effects of the first few states to raise the drinking age to 21 creating that particular mirage in the 1980s.  Or perhaps increased enforcement in general relative to neighboring towns did the trick regardless of the age limit, like it did in Woodridge, IL and several other communities the 1990s with an age limit of 18.  Studies show that whenever vendor compliance exceeds 90-95%, there is indeed a dramatic drop in teen smoking regardless, by as much as 50% compared with previously weak enforcement and low compliance rates, especially for the youngest teens.  More recent research bears this out as well, for teen smoking as well as vaping.   And keep in mind that those who make it to 18 without smoking are far less likely to take up this deadly habit later on.

This all should be food for thought for policymakers debating not just the age limit for tobacco, but also for alcohol, cannabis, or anything else for that matter.  And even if such benefits of the 21 age limit were real, we at Twenty-One Debunked would still not support an age limit any higher than 18, on principle alone.  Old enough to fight and vote = old enough to drink and smoke.  'Nuff said.

New York Raises Smoking Age To 21

Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York had to be a big shot, apparently.  Today on July 16, he finally signed the bill that raises the age limit for tobacco and vaping products to 21, effective 120 days from today.

When the lights went out on Broadway last Saturday, that was certainly an ominous sign.  And lest anyone think there is a consolation prize, Cuomo failed to even get weed legalized last month since he apparently couldn't even muster up the votes in the legislature to pass it.

Many counties and cities in the state, including NYC and now all of its "backyard", already set the tobacco/vape age limit at 21.  That of course includes my home county of Westchester, which raised it from 18 to 21 last year, and even Putnam County too.

The only silver lining is that the new age limit of 21, like the old age limit of 18, will only apply to vendors, as it will still not be illegal for "underage" people to possess or consume tobacco or vaping products.   But that still does NOT mean we should support it one bit!

With the "bookend" states of California and New York now down, plus several other populous and not-so-populous states, not to mention hundreds of localities across the country, and even our nation's capital, is our movement lost for good?  We sure hope not.  It looked like the Tobacco 21 movement had stagnated last year, but now with New York, Utah, Virginia, Washington State, Illinois, and Texas next to jump on the bandwagon, and soon the federal government as well, we clearly got way too complacent last year.  It certainly does NOT bode well for any near-future attempt to lower the drinking and toking ages to 18!

Hindsight is 2020, both the year and the vision.  There is still a slim chance that the America we know and love is not completely lost yet.  But that window is closing very, very fast.

The Smoking Gun? Not Exactly

A recent preliminary study from earlier this year by Catherine Orr et al. seems to be stirring the pot, so to speak.  Adding fuel to the already volatile tinderbox of moral panic around teen cannabis use, this study using brain scans appears to find brain changes in 14 year olds who have used cannabis only once or twice, compared with those who have never used it.  Specifically, those who had used it once or twice showed increased gray matter in various brain regions relative to those who did not, which, counterintuitively, suggests a disruption of the normal "pruning" process that occurs during adolescence (or something).  And of course, the MSM predictably just took it and ran with it.

Of course, correlation is not the same as causation, and there are still reasons to be skeptical of the findings and practical significance:

• The sample size was small:  46 people in each group.  Thus, very sensitive to potential selection bias, reporting bias, and confounding.  (Apparently from a larger brain study of over 2000 people, they could only find 47 individuals who had only tried cannabis once or twice by that age, and one had an inconclusive scan.)
• Another way that size matters is "effect size".  And while the numbers are difficult to interpret, they are also on the small side.
• Some underreporting of cannabis (and other substance) use is always very likely, and can skew results in either direction depending on what is being underreported and by whom.
• Temporality of the initial findings remains unclear (i.e. which occurred first?).
• No other study has ever found long-lasting brain changes from a single dose or two of cannabis, at least not in humans.  And no one has ever replicated these findings yet.
• Previous studies have been quite inconsistent in terms of the effects (or lack thereof) of cannabis use, even regular use, on brain structure, function, and cognition.  Some studies found increases in gray matter, others decreases, still others null.  Ditto for white matter as well.
• Given how the participants were European, it is particularly difficult to disentangle cannabis and tobacco use as the two substances are customarily mixed.  This is important because nicotine is a known neurotoxin to which the early adolescent brain appears to be exquisitely sensitive.
• The study apparently did not look at the brain effects of those who used cannabis but did not initiate until age 15 or older, so even if the effects are real, they may not necessarily be generalizable to people over 15.
• The practical significance of the findings is clear as mud right now.  Even the researchers aren't entirely sure what they mean.  Is it actually bad to have more gray matter, and compared to what exactly?  Is it disrupted brain development, or simply stimulated and enhanced neurogenesis?
• While greater gray matter in the study was correlated with differences in psychomotor performance contemporaneously for whatever reason, the only bad thing correlated with it two years later was generalized anxiety.  No other measures of psychopathology or performance were correlated at baseline or two years later.
• Come to think of it, if these 14 year olds were followed up two years later, why were their brains not scanned again a second time at 16, especially since there admittedly were many who were cannabis-naive at 14 who went on to use it two years later?
• And frankly, it really doesn't even pass the straight face test that a mere single dose or two of such a relatively mild psychoactive substance would be enough cause a long-lasting disruption to brain development, a process that occurs over several years.  To quote Paracelsus, "the dose makes the poison".  That, and Occam's Razor too.

Of course, the cliche that "more research is needed" certainly applies here, and the researchers indeed say as much.  They also plan to do a follow-up study as well in the near future.  Though if history is any indication, we should not hold our breath waiting for these results to be replicated.

Keep in mind that the infamous 2012 study that reportedly found persistently reduced IQs among adults who used cannabis before age 18, was debunked by 2014 study that found no correlation between adolescent cannabis use and IQ or exam performance (though heavy use beginning before age 15 was associated with slightly poorer exam results at age 16).  This latter study did control for tobacco, alcohol, and a host of other factors.  So it is very likely that soon another study will come a long and refute the first study discussed in this article, or perhaps find that any such effects are limited to the heaviest users, particularly those who began before age 15 or 16.  In fact, a 2018 systematic review of 69 studies of adolescent and young adult cannabis use and cognitive functioning found that reported adverse effects were much smaller in size than the prohibitionists like to claim, and generally tend to be temporary rather than permanent, even for frequent and/or heavy use.  And interestingly, no correlation with age of onset, though the mean age of study participants in these 69 studies was significantly higher than in the aforementioned Montreal study.

Other studies as well cast serious doubt on the scary claims of cannabis neurotoxicity as well, and most studies find weed safer than alcohol.

So what is the best takeaway from such studies?  It would seem that while occasional or moderate cannabis use is basically a non-problem, heavy and/or daily/near-daily use (unless medically necessary) should probably be avoided at any age, but particularly for people under 18 and especially under 15.  And while delaying the onset of use, or at least regular use, for as long as possible is probably wise for people under 18 and especially under 15, there is no hard scientific evidence that cannabis is any more harmful at 18 than it is as 21, 25, or even 30 for that matter.  Thus, there is no good reason to keep it illegal or set the age limit any higher than 18.  And even for people well under 18, the criminal law is still far too harsh a tool to apply to something like this that more likely than not turns out to be a non-problem.

The prohibitionist "scientists" and their pal-reviewers really seem to be grasping at straws now.  Apparently they think if they move the goalposts enough, they will score a touchdown.  But as we all know, that is not how science really works.

Cannabis Legalization NOT Associated With Increased Teen Use

After several years of recreational cannabis legalization in several states, on the heels of up to over two decades of medical cannabis legalization in even more states, a recent study once again puts the lie to the prohibitionist claim that legalization would result in increased teen use of cannabis among other things in their supposed parade of horribles.  In fact, the study found that recreational legalization for adults was found to be correlated with a significant decrease in both overall and frequent teen use, while medical-only legalization was not significantly correlated with teen use at all either way.  Thus, the study completely lays waste to one of the prohibitionists' strongest arguments.  So consider that perennial zombie lie dead as a doornail for good.

That said, Twenty-One Debunked, in living up to our name, would be remiss if we did not note that so far, all states that have legalized weed for recreational use thus far have set the age limit at 21 (in contrast to Canada, where it is 18 or 19 depending on the province, or Uruguay and the Netherlands, where it is 18) and the study only looked at the USA.  But given that 1) medical legalization laws (which were not correlated with teen use) generally set the age limit at 18 in the absence of parental consent and often have loopholes, and 2) other countries that set lower age limits have thus far not reported a significant jump in teen use in recent years, and 3) America's experience thus far with changes in the drinking and tobacco smoking ages, one can conclude that an age limit of 18 for recreational use in the USA is unlikely to increase teen use relative to either prohibition or a 21 age limit.  Thus, no good reason to set it higher than 18.

The Overton Window Has Shifted, And Not In A Good Way

With more and more states raising their smoking ages to 21 (and the federal government likely to follow very soon), along with a burgeoning movement to raise the "juvenile" injustice age to 20 or 21 (or perhaps even higher), one can conclude that the Overton window is currently shifting in the wrong direction.  That is, it is becoming increasingly politically acceptable to raise age limits higher than 18, while lowering age limits is becoming increasingly unacceptable these days.   And both corporate duopoly parties in government today seem to be equally affected/infected by this virulently ageist and illiberal trend towards higher and higher age limits.

Clearly, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the odds of us successfully lowering the drinking age (and toking age) to 18 anywhere in the the USA have really never been lower than they are now.  Even the possible silver lining of a new showdown between the feds and states is exceeedingly unlikely now, since Mitch McConnell's "Tobacco-Free Youth Act" recently had that controversial section about withholding state grants removed before it got out of committee, and it looks likely to pass both houses without it.

Time and momentum are NOT on our side right now, in other words.  Slopes are MUCH slipperier than they appear, and we need to turn this ship of fools around before it's too late (assuming it isn't already too late).

What's Worse Than Raising The Federal Smoking Age To 21? Forcing States To Do The Same As Well

There are a number of federal Tobacco 21 bills competing in Congress right now.  But the one that Big Tobacco and their shill Mitch McConnell both want, the Tobacco-Free Youth Act, would not only raise the federal tobacco and vape sale age from 18 to 21 (thus amending the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009), but also force states to raise their own legal sale age limit for tobacco and vaping products to 21 by changing "18" to "21" in the 1992 Synar Amendment as well.  Such coercion in the latter would revoke a portion of federal substance abuse prevention grants from states that choose to keep their age limits below 21, something that has been academic since 1993 (when all states raised their age limits to at least 18 to satisfy the Synar Amendment as written).  Sound familiar?  In 2000 the Supreme Court struck it down as unconstitutional since back then the FDA did not have legal authority over tobacco, the FDA now does, so any new challenge would have to be one that would also attack the federal drinking age coercion in the 1980s, whether on Tenth Amendment grounds or substantive due process / equal protection under the 14th Amendment.  (Such a challenge may be the only silver lining, assuming both get overturned as a result.)

History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.  And the odd thing is, if the federal age limit is raised to 21, coercing the states to do so is redundant at best, and counterproductive (for the feds, that is) since it opens the federal government up to legal challenges, and also makes it easy for Big Tobacco to extract special favors from states by giving them an unnecessary bargaining chip to play with.  And this flaw seems very likely to be deliberate.  So in their zeal to raise the smoking age to 21, the anti-tobacco movement becomes strange bedfellows with Big Tobacco.

Seriously.   Let that sink in.  And by the way, threatening to withhold substance abuse prevention grants from states as a cudgel during the opioid crisis is every bit as base and cowardly (if not even more so) as withholding federal highway funding while our infrastructure is rapidly decaying and crumbling.

All of these Tobacco 21 bills need to be vigorously fought against, period.  If any of these happen to pass, another little piece of America as we know it will die, and 21 will become the new 18 in so many other ways as well.  And then it would be only a matter of time before it becomes 25, and so on.

UPDATE:  Looks like as of June 26th, the bill advanced out of committee, and they apparently scrapped the part about forcing states to raise their own age limits for tobacco/vaping products.  But the bill still stinks to high heaven regardless, albeit slightly less.

How About We NOT "Raise The Age" For Juvenile Injustice Beyond 18?

For the record, Twenty-One Debunked does NOT support any attempt raise the age for the juvenile injustice system any higher than 18.  Period.

Until recently, no one really took seriously the idea of raising the juvenile injustice age any higher than 18.  In fact, we would often half-jokingly use this idea as an intellectual checkmate against the 21 drinking age and similar illiberal and ageist laws.  But the idea is apparently now really catching on since last year.  Make no mistake, this will NOT make young adults (or anyone) any better off, but it is a Trojan horse that will later be used as an excuse to revoke ALL civil rights from 18-24 year olds, just like people under 18 today.  After all, "you can't have adult rights without adult responsibilities", they say, without even the slightest hint of nuance (or irony), of course.

I mean, we can kinda understand raising the age for the "juvenile" injustice system to 18, only because it is unfair that as long as the age of majority remains 18 and the juvenile age limit is lower than 18, people under that age are hypocritically treated as children when they are good and adults when they are bad.  A few states currently still set the age limit at 16 or 17 to this day, and they should probably raise it to 18 given what we know now about youth development.  But any higher than that is really asking for trouble, and will do far more harm than good.  If they honestly want to make the adult criminal injustice system more rehabilitative and restorative for all ages, fine.  But they really don't, and raising the age limit is both over and under inclusive, and highly counterproductive to both justice and youth rights.

As for the idea of having separate young-adult prisons for 18-24 or 18-25 year olds while still trying and sentencing them as adults, we have no problem with that.  The UK has done that for a while, and now Connecticut is experimenting with this idea as well.  It does make sense to not put those who are young enough still have a chance (however slim) to be rehabilitated in the same facility with older, more hardened criminals who will be a very bad influence on them.  Believe it or not, us youth rights activists actually are capable of nuance.  But trying and sentencing them as anything less than the adults that they are is really taking things too far in that regard.

Indeed, slopes are a LOT slipperier than they appear.  One of the very first things to do to fight this trend is to jettison the term "emerging adult" from our vocabulary, at least in regards to 18-24 year olds.  "Young adult" is the longstanding and preferred term for that age range as well as also 25-34 year olds, and there is no need for neologisms that further divide the youth or young adult demographics.  Language is very powerful, and recategorizing people with neologisms is the first step towards second-class citizenship (i.e. not REAL adults, because REASONS, or something).

And of course, we must recognize and expose the junk neuroscience behind this latest Trojan horse for what it is, as it is literally the same junk neuroscience used to justify abridging the civil rights of 18-24 year olds (to say nothing of those under 18 as well, a fortiori.)

So let's NOT give the ageists any more ammunition by taking the bait here.  Seriously, not even in jest.

Have A Safe And Happy Memorial Day Weekend

Today is Memorial Day, often known as the unofficial first day of summer and National BBQ Day.  But let's remember what it really is--a day to honor all of the men and women of our armed forces who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country.  And that of course includes all of those who died serving our country before they were legally old enough to drink.  Let us all take a moment of silence to honor them.

As for Candy Lightner, the ageist turncoat founder of MADD who had the chutzpah and hubris to go on national TV in 2008 and publicly insult our troops, may her name and memory be forever blotted out. 

And as always, arrive alive, don't drink and drive.  It's just not worth it, period.  And it's very simple to prevent.   If you plan to drive, don't drink, and if you plan to drink, don't drive.  It's not rocket science.

Who Are The Real Radicals?

The word radical generally refers to a person or group that wants to make drastic and fundamental (that is, radical) changes to society.  Derived from the Latin word for "root", in this way it illustrates just how fundamental such change is called for.  Classic examples that you oldsters reading this may recall from back in the day include Abbie Hoffman and Jerry Rubin.  But is Twenty-One Debunked really such a radical group like some may think?

Is it really radical to want all legal adults above the age of majority (18) to have the same rights that people over 21 currently enjoy, including (but not limited to) the right to use, possess, share, and purchase otherwise-legal psychoactive substances?

Is it really radical to believe that alcohol should be legal for all adults, period, like it is in nearly every single non-Muslim country in the world (and even some moderate Muslim countries too)?

Is it really radical to believe that cannabis, which is objectively safer overall than alcohol and tobacco and less addictive than coffee, should be re-legalized (it was not always illegal, only for a tiny fraction of history) for both recreational and medical use, fairly taxed, and regulated no more stringently than alcohol or tobacco (and legally sold and/or used in many if not most of the same places as well)?

Is it really radical to believe that, when it is legalized, the age limit for cannabis should not be any higher than the legal age of majority (18), nor any higher than for the more dangerous and addictive already-legal drugs, alcohol and tobacco?

Is it really radical to believe that, for as long as tobacco remains legal and readily available, those over the age of majority (18) should retain the right to decide for themselves whether or not to choose pleasure over longevity and indulge in this (albeit dangerous and deadly) substance?

Is it really radical to not want to punish the many (such as an entire demographic group) for the actions of the few?  And to prefer to hold individuals fully and solely accountable for their own misbehavior?

Is it really radical to believe that drinking establishments, and especially social hosts at private residences, should NOT be held vicariously liable for what their adult guests or customers do after leaving the premises following participation in voluntary intoxication on the premises?  And that personal responsibility for individuals should still be a thing?

Is it really radical to believe that, as John Stuart Mill believed, that individuals are fully sovereign over their own bodies and minds, at least as far as consenting adults are concerned?

Is it really radical to believe that our own bodies are NOT property of the state or any other entity besides ourselves, regardless of what the state or entity may claim or choose to provide us with?

Is it really radical to believe that adults should NOT have to be baby-sat?

Is it really radical to believe that if you're old enough to go to war, you're old enough to go to the bar?

Is it really radical to believe that under a system of federalism, the federal government does NOT get to force or coerce states to raise their own legal age limits for alcohol (or any other legal substance) higher than their own ages of majority?

Is it really radical to believe that under a system of federalism, the federal government should have far LESS (if any) latitude in terms of micro-managing authority over We the People than the state and local governments do, and when in doubt should really stay in their own lane?

Because if you think that these ideas are somehow radical, we've got news for you:  they are actually quite conservative and in line with both international and historical norms, even in our very own country before 1984 if you can believe that.  This shows just how far the Overton window has shifted both rightward and in the authoritarian direction, and just how far down the rabbit hole we have gone.

As Five Finger Death Punch would say, it's stranger than fiction, how we've decayed...

Still No Increase In Stoned Driving Post-Legalization In Canada

Cannabis has been legal in Canada for everyone over 18 (or 19, depending on the province) since October 17, 2018, and yet six months later there has still been no noticeable increase in stoned driving and related crashes overall according to police.  While it may still be too soon to tell, that is still very encouraging news that takes much of the wind out the sails of both prohibitionists and ageists alike.

This adds to the growing body of evidence that legalization of cannabis was NOT a disaster after all, and that there is no good reason to set the age limit any higher than 18.  Food for thought indeed. 

What Does Big Tobacco Really Hate? Hint: It's NOT Tobacco 21 Laws

Clearly, Big Tobacco (including the quisling JUUL Labs who sold out to them) does NOT oppose raising the age limit for tobacco and vaping products to 21.  In fact, they now openly support Tobacco 21 laws, including the latest attempt at the federal level.  It appears to be a cowardly, treacherous Trojan horse to scuttle and pre-empt any laws that they oppose.

But what laws and regulations DO they really, really vehemently oppose these days?  That is the real question here and the answer is:

• Higher tobacco taxes of any kind, especially on cigarettes but also on other tobacco and vaping products as well.
• Flavor bans of any kind, whether menthol cigarettes, flavored cigars, or fruity and candy flavors for vape products.

And it is very telling indeed that they oppose those laws so vehemently.  Additionally, as far as age limits go, they also historically have preferred purchase-use-possession (PUP) laws over sales-to-underage (STU) laws, since the former put the onus on young smokers/vapers themselves while the latter put the onus on vendors, and Big Tobacco really HATES the latter even if they pay lip service to it. This has been true with an age limit of 18, and probably will still be their quasi-official stance under an age limit of 21.

Given what we know about what Big Tobacco likes and dislikes, it should be pretty obvious how to combat them effectively.  Don't take the Tobacco 21 bait, Congress!  Keep it 18, and enforce it better by strengthening the Synar Program for retailer compliance checks, ban kid-friendly vape flavors, consider banning menthol cigarettes, cap nicotine levels of vape products down to European and Israeli levels, phase down nicotine levels in cigarettes to a non-addictive level, and raise the taxes on tobacco products (and add a more modest vape tax too).

To sum up Big Tobacco's thought process:

• Raise cigarette or other tobacco or vape taxes?  HELL NO!
• Flavor bans?  HELL NO!
• Restrictions on nicotine content?  HELL NO! 
• Raise the age limit for tobacco and vaping products to 21?  HELL YEAH!

Remember, anything that Mitch "Awkward Turtle" McConnell (and Big Tobacco) supports has to have some sort of sinister ulterior motives.  Twenty-One Debunked opposes raising the age limit any higher than 18 on principle, regardless of why they want to do it.  But now add in this sinister Big Tobacco dimension and it only becomes all the more repugnant overall.  It truly must be opposed.

California's--And America's--Black Market Cannabis Problem

Looks like the black market for cannabis is unfortunately alive and well in states that have legalized cannabis. This includes California after over a year of legal retail sales, and in other legalization states even after several years of legal retail sales.  So what gives?

The two biggest reasons appear to be high taxes/prices and a limited number of legal dispensaries/outlets.  The black market can easily undercut such high prices and fill in the gaps left by not enough legal retail stores, and do not have to deal with the rather onerous licensing and other regulations that legal businesses must adhere to.  When there is an artificial shortage of legal cannabis, the black market easily picks up the slack, and where there is an oversupply that makes it less profitable, some of it gets diverted to the black market to sell illegally to other, non-legalization states as well.

And then there is that 21 age limit as well, which is currently the case in all legalization states.  That also encourages illicit sales as lower-hanging fruit compared to legal dispensaries with strict enforcement. Can we get a resounding, "DUH"?

So what to do?  Cut the taxes on cannabis, yesterday, for at least a year or two before raising them again.  Consider a complete tax holiday for a few months, like Oregon did when legalization began there.  Ease up a bit on licensing regulations (and fees) for both producers and retailers.  Allow at least all liquor stores to sell weed alongside their booze, and further consider allowing any store that sells cigarettes to also sell weed as well, including grocery and convenience stores.  Lower the age limit to 18, yesterday.  Encourage current black market dealers to "go legit".  And once these things are done, then crack down hard on the black market, particularly the illegal commercial growers and higher-ups in the illegal businesses and organized crime syndicates.

Problem solved.

And of course, fully legalize cannabis at the federal level as well.  Period.

Of course, once the black market is dead and gone, then by all means, tax away.  But now is NOT the time for overtaxation or overregulation.

So what should the tax on cannabis be?  To start with, we at Twenty-One Debunked believe it should be no higher that $10/ounce for bud and $2.50/ounce for trim at the production/cultivation level, with no other taxes aside from regular sales tax.  Consider a three-month tax holiday as well, like Oregon did in 2015.  Then, after the first year or two, the tax should be no higher than $50/ounce for bud and $15/ounce for trim, much like it is in Alaska today.  As for concentrates and edibles, those are best to tax based on THC content, e.g. 1 cent/milligram of THC.

Remember, there is really no good reason why cannabis needs to be regulated any more stringently than alcohol or tobacco.  After all, while it is not completely harmless for everyone, the fact remains that by just about any objective, rational, scientific measure, cannabis is safer than alcohol, tobacco, most prescription drugs, aspirin, and even Tylenol, while it is less addictive than coffee.  Thus our laws and regulations need to align accurately with reality, since facts > feelings, even in a "post-truth" society.

Awkward Turtle! Mitch McConnell Wants To Raise Federal Tobacco And Vaping Age To 21

In 2019, there seems to be one thing that Big Tobacco, JUUL Labs (which sold out to Big Tobacco), most anti-tobacco groups, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Sen. Majority Leader Mitch "Awkward Turtle" McConnell (R-KY) can all agree on.  And that thing is a federal Tobacco 21 law that raises the sale age limit for all tobacco and vaping products to 21 nationwide.  Politics certainly does make some very strange bedfellows indeed!

This would require an act of Congress, of course, as the FDA is explictly denied (as they should be!) the authority to raise the federal age limit any higher than 18.  And unlike the drinking age where the feds had to make an end-run around the Constitution to coerce states to raise their drinking ages to 21, this time they will not have to do so and can simply set a federal age limit of 21.  They already set a federal age limit of 18 as of 2009, so that law can very easily be amended.  Crucially, this law  only applies to the age limit for sales, and only sellers are targeted and penalized (unlike the drinking age in which public possession by young people is an offense), so this is still within Congress’s authority.  

Except, of course, for the substantive due process and equal protection argument invoking the 14th Amendment, since the age limit would be higher than the age of majority, but that is a separate issue from state's rights and the 10th Amendment.  And that can potentially be challenged in court, albeit as a VERY uphill battle.

Thus, this bill is likely to pass, unfortunately.  Write your Congresscritters and convince them to oppose it.  And point out all of the other things they can do instead:

• Raise the federal cigarette tax, apply it to the producer level, and set a national price floor to discourage interstate smuggling.
• Create a federal vape products tax on all nicotine-containing vape juices and pods, ideally proportional to nicotine content.
• Ban fruity and candy flavors in any nicotine-containing product.
• Cap the nicotine content of vape products down to European and Israeli levels.
• Give out free nicotine patches, gums, inhalers, etc. to any smokers who want to quit (NYC already does this.)
• Consider gradually phasing down the maximum allowable nicotine content of combustible cigarettes to a non-addictive level.
• Consider gradually phasing out menthol cigarettes like Canada did and the EU is in the process of doing.
• And last but but not least, enforce existing laws better in terms of the current 18 age limit for tobacco and vaping products.  In fact, amend the Synar Amendment and Program to raise the passing grade for retailer compliance checks from the currently low bar of 80% to 90% and then 95%, and include vape products.  

But do NOT raise the age limit any higher than 18.

Have A Safe And Happy 4/20

We at Twenty-One Debunked would like to wish every cannabis user a safe and happy 4/20.  For those who don't know, 4/20 (April 20) is the unofficial National Marijuana Day, based on the number 420 being code for cannabis dating back to the 1970s.

Please keep in mind that while driving under the influence of cannabis alone is not as dangerous as driving under the influence of alcohol, it is NOT really safe or wise to do so, particularly with higher doses.  So avoid doing so, and if you do toke up, try to wait as long as you can (i.e. a few hours) before getting behind the wheel, as that can make all the difference.  Also, coffee and sleep will not sober you up--only time can--but they can take the edge off of any residual fatigue.  And certainly do NOT drive twisted (high and drunk at the same time) under any circumstances, period, as that is worse than either subtance alone.  Even fairly small amounts of alcohol when combined with weed can make driving all the more dangerous in combination, albeit with the silver lining that the impairment from such small amounts wears off fairly quickly compared to larger amounts.

The two most important rules for life in general, according to the ancient Greeks, are as follows:  "Know thyself", and "Nothing to excess".  These certainly apply here.  And we will add another one:

"When in doubt, wait it out".

Canada's Black Market For Cannabis Won't Die Quickly

Six months after Canada's cannabis legalization went into effect on October 17, 2018, the black market still seems to be alive and well.  This is despite rather modest taxation of legal weed, and the fact that the age limit is 18 or 19 depending on the province, as opposed to 21 in the US states that have full legalization.  So what gives?

Apparently, there are chronic shortages of the herb throughout Canada that persist to this day, with the legal stores often selling out too quickly, and the black market dealers seem to have no difficulty filling the gap, and cheaper.  Why is this happening?  Well, it is clearly not due to any real scarcity, but the artificial scarcity of overregulation.  Most provinces only allow it at government-run stores which are few and far between, while the few privately-run ones are also few and far between due to a limited number of licenses.  The rollout of legal weed has been painfully and deliberately slow so as not to offend the public-health crowd too much, and they don't even sell edibles, beverages, or hashish yet (until October 2019, a whole year after phase-one of legalization began).  So it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see how this would create shortages for illicit dealers to fill.

Best thing for Canada to do?  Implement phase-two of legalization yesterday, as it is long overdue.  Consider a tax holiday for a few months, like Oregon did when legalization began there.  Ease up a bit on licensing regulations (and fees) for both producers and retailers.  Allow at least all liquor stores to sell weed alongside their booze, and further consider allowing any store that sells cigarettes to also sell weed as well.  And those provinces that set the age limit at 19 (including Manitoba, despite their drinking and tobacco smoking age being 18) should lower their age limits to 18.  Encourage current black market dealers to "go legit".  And once these things are done, then crack down on the black market.  Problem solved.

Of course, once the black market is dead and gone, then by all means, tax away.  But now is not the time for overtaxation or overregulation.

Remember, there is really no good reason why cannabis needs to be regulated any more stringently than alcohol or tobacco.  After all, while it is not completely harmless for everyone, the fact remains that by just about any objective, rational, scientific measure, cannabis is safer than alcohol, tobacco, most prescription drugs, aspirin, and even Tylenol, while it is less addictive than coffee.   Thus our laws and regulations need to align accurately with reality, since facts > feelings, even in a "post-truth" society.

Does The Latest Brain Study Vindicate The 21 Drinking Age? Well, Not Exactly.

There is a new brain study making the headlines these days.  This study examined postmortem brains of three groups of people:  1) 11 people with alcohol use disorders (AUD) who began drinking consistently before age 21, 2) 11 people with AUD who began drinking consistently after age 21, and 3) 22 people who did not have any AUD at all, though many of them drank at least somewhat.  And among the three groups, only for the early-onset AUD group were epigenetic changes related to the expression of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) found, particularly in the amygdala, which is responsible for regulating emotions.  These changes are thought to lead to difficulty regulating emotions, problems with anxiety, and even be part of the pathophysiology of alcoholism itself.

So what does this really mean, exactly?  First of all, the researchers seem to have arbitrarily picked 21 as the dividing line between early-onset and late-onset AUD drinkers, and made no further distinction within the early-onset group (i.e., before 15, before 18, first drink, first drunkenness, first regular drinking, etc.).  Secondly, the study looked at a small sample size of people with alcohol-use disorders (think alcohol abuse/dependence, alcoholism, truly heavy, heavy drinking for many years or decades), who at the time of death averaged well over 10 standard drinks per day and over 100 drinks per week, over 30+ years.  Males were also overrepresented (in fact there were zero women in the early-onset AUD group), and the early-onset group drank significantly heavier then the late-onset group.  It is probably safe to say that these drinkers are NOT representative of the vast majority of those who drink before 21, and given how early the onset of early-onset AUD drinkers tends to be, it would also be safe to say that this early-onset AUD group largely began drinking well before 18, if not before 15.  And even among the late-onset AUD group, the relative lack of epigenetic changes certainly did NOT stop them from becoming alcoholics in any case.

Furthermore, there is no temporality to this non-longitudinal study, so we don't know whether or not these epigenetic changes were due to pre-existing vulnerability or perhaps the early use of other substances such as that now-infamous neurotoxin, nicotine. (Most of the study subjects were smokers, apparently, and about 90% of adult regular smokers typically begin smoking before age 18).

Thus, this study tells us NOTHING about the difference between people in general who begin drinking at 18 versus 21.  NOTHING.  Nor does it vindicate the ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age.  And anyone who claims otherwise is being, shall we say, "economical with the truth".

Do Tobacco 21 Laws Really Work?

One preliminary study seems to think so about California's law that raised the age limit to buy tobacco and e-cigarettes from 18 to 21 as of June 9, 2016.  But the devil is really in the details.  The study did not, I repeat, did NOT, look at actual teen smoking rates, only the degree of retailer compliance as measured by decoys, which did in fact improve since then in terms of sales to people under 18.

The two problems with this logic are 1) it is not necessary to raise the age limit to 21 to discourage retailers from selling to people under 18, as simply better enforcement against scofflaw vendors would do the trick, and 2) survey data do not really show any decrease in teen smoking that can be unambiguously linked to the policy change, whether in California or elsewhere with a Tobacco 21 law.  Teen smoking dropped nationwide from 2015 to 2017, and while it dropped somewhat faster in California, keep in mind that California also raised their cigarette tax significantly during that time, by $2.00/pack, and Pennsylvania saw an even larger drop in teen smoking despite keeping the age limit 18 and a cigarette tax hike of $1.00/pack, only half as large.

As we have noted before based on survey data for the past few years, there is really no robust correlation between a state or local smoking age (whether 18, 19, or 21) and the teen (or adult) smoking rate.  The strongest predictors of both teen and adult smoking are the tax/price of cigarettes and the prevailing social attitudes towards smoking, and in fact prices seem to have a larger effect on young people than adults.  It is practically axiomatic.  Retailer compliance is also inversely correlated with smoking by people under 18, but again it has proven to be entirely possible achieve nearly 100% compliance without raising the smoking age any higher than 18, as long as there is the political will for it.  And it doesn't even require the criminal justice system at all, since the best tobacco-control success stories involved only administrative penalties (i.e. fines and/or tobacco license suspensions) against rogue vendors.  Nor does it require criminalizing young people themselves.

If anything, if NYC is any indication, retailer compliance actually deteriorated following their age limit hike from 18 to 21 in 2014.  This was in spite of heavy crackdowns against contraband tobacco during that time.  In any case, while teen smoking rates declined in NYC following the law change, they did not drop any faster than the rest of the state or the nation as a whole, in fact they declined at a slower rate in NYC compared with the control locations, and teen vaping actually increased despite the fact that the law applied equally to e-cigarettes as well as combustible cigarettes.  If that's "success", we would really hate to see what failure looks like.

Oh, and about Chicago's supposed success, keep in mind that raising their age limit to 21 in 2016 was not the only new tobacco control law passed around that time in the Windy City.  And the cigarette taxes there also went up significantly shortly before the age limit hike to 21 as well.  Thus, there were too many variables to really tease out the effect of the Tobacco 21 law on teen and young adult smoking rates.

And in fact, this also once again calls into question how effective the 21 drinking age (and now toking age in some states) is as well.  Spoiler alert:  not very.  Thus, if there is a silver lining to the recent hike in the smoking age to 21 in some states and localities, it is that re-running this same failed social experiment with a different age-restricted psychoactive substance only to see it fail yet again in more modern times, a fortiori, is probably the strongest evidence against the very concept of such ridiculously high age limits in general.  If you give the pro-21 crowd enough rope...

We Hereby Excommunicate JUUL Labs

(Editor's Note:  Twenty-One Debunked has never been affiliated in any way, shape or form with JUUL Labs or any other vaping, tobacco, alcohol, or cannabis company.  And we never will be, either.)

Dear JUUL Labs,

Since you were founded in 2015 as a spinoff from Pax Labs, you have always presented yourselves, at least publicly, as the underdog saving the world in the fight against the evil Big Tobacco.  Little did America know that you were about to pull the wool over everyone's eyes and make fools, and then cynics, of us all.

Why do we hate thee, JUUL?  Let us count the ways:

• You loudly proclaimed yourselves as the enemy of Big Tobacco, but you began to copy their playbook awfully quickly in terms of advertising to young people and cynically attempting to implement your own "anti-vaping" progams in schools. (You claimed that was just an oversight.)
• You chose a much higher nicotine level for your products than other vape brands, by far.  That was most likely to try to edge out the competition, and it worked--at the expense of a new generation of nicotine addicts, that is.
• You lowered your nicotine content when selling in the European Union and Israel (who by law set the maximum allowable nicotine content of vape products much lower than the American version of your products), but curiously still do not offer such reduced-nicotine products in the USA, or any nicotine-free products.
• Until very recently, you failed to adequately warn users that your products contain nicotine and are addictive.  Many young people did not even know that all JUULs contain nicotine, let alone such a high level of it.
• When the FDA finally blew the whistle on you, you responded in the most cowardly way possible.  You decided to throw young adults under the bus by calling for the age limit for vaping products to be raised from 18 to 21, and you banned 18-20 year olds from your website.  And you still made no significant changes to your highly-addictive products, save for the removal of a few flavors.
• And worst of all, you literally SOLD OUT to Altria Group (aka Philip Morris), whose name is literally synonymous with Big Tobacco.  You know, the evil industry you once claimed to be fighting against?  Your deal with the devil may have made you richer and bought you some temporary protection, but everything comes with a price, and your day will come very soon.

Thus, in light of the above grievances, we hereby excommunicate you.  Here is your bell, book, and candle, you cowardly quislings.  Now go take your crack nicotine and shove it!

Say It Ain't So, Governor Cuomo! New York State To Raise Smoking/Vaping Age To 21

No, this is NOT an April Fool's Day joke.  New York State is now set to become the eighth (or ninth?) state to raise the age limit for tobacco and vaping products to 21.  The legislature passed it, and Governor Cuomo is expected to sign it.  If (really, when) he does, it will take effect in 120 days.  Which is very, very soon.

Many counties and cities in the state, including NYC and most of its "backyard", already set the age limit at 21.  That of course includes my home county of Westchester, which raised it from 18 to 21 last year.

The only silver lining is that the new age limit of 21, like the old age limit of 18, will only apply to vendors, as it will still not be illegal for "underage" people to possess or consume tobacco or vaping products.   But that still does NOT mean we should support it one bit!

With the "bookend" states of California and New York now down, plus several other populous and not-so-populous states, not to mention hundreds of localities across the country, and even our nation's capital, is our movement lost for good?  We sure hope not.  It looked like the Tobacco 21 movement had stagnated last year, but now with New York, Utah, and possibly Washington State next to jump on the bandwagon, perhaps we got too complacent last year.  It certainly does NOT bode well for any near-future attempt to lower the drinking and toking ages to 18!

Hindsight is 2020, both the year and the vision.

What's The Best Way To Reduce Teen Vaping? Teens Already Know The Answer

As bewildered chronological adults wring their hands and scratch their heads on how to best fight the teen vaping "epidemic", a recent article came out in Utah that actually asked teens themselves how to do it.  The answer was simple:  tax the hell out of it to make it more expensive.  Gee, who woulda thunk it?

Notice they did not say anything about raising the age limit, by the way.   America's experience with combustible cigarettes has shown that raising the price, via taxes or otherwise, seems to be the most effective and cost-effective way to do it.  And while it works for all ages, the effect size is larger for young people since they are more price-sensitive overall.

Of course, if vape taxes are raised, care must be taken to also raise combustible tobacco taxes so as not to inadvertently steer young people back to smoking.   And as long as vaping remains an available alternative, cigarette taxes can go much higher than they are now (except New York) without creating too much of a black market.   Thus vape taxes should go up, and cigarette taxes should be even higher still.  And only nicotine-containing vape juices and pods should be taxed significantly, ideally proportional to nicotine content.  (Hardware devices themselves should only be taxed modestly, if at all.)

Other effective measures we have noted include capping and reducing the nicotine content of vape products down to European and Israeli levels (JUUL, we're looking at YOU), strictly enforcing the 18 age limit on vendors for all tobacco and nicotine products, and perhaps also removing kid-friendly fruity flavors of nicotine-containing vapes from the market.  But raising the age limit any higher than 18 should quite frankly not even be considered.   Too bad Utah is now the latest state to NOT heed that last bit of advice.