Case Closed: Curfews Don't Reduce Crime

Curfews, especially youth curfews for people under an arbitrary age limit, have long been a solution in search of a problem.  They have been touted as a panacea for all sorts of social ills, most notably street crime.  And the evidence for that has been very weak at best, with plenty of evidence against it in fact.

In fact, a 2016 literature review of 7000 studies finds that "juvenile curfews do not reduce crime or victimization".  Proponents of such illiberal policies can cherry-pick all they want, but the hard data are pretty damning against the idea of curfews.  As Ronald Reagan said, "facts are stubborn things".

But now we have the strongest "natural experiment" with the extreme, unprecedented, all-ages COVID lockdowns, curfews, and other restrictions in 2020 that did not exist in 2019 and prior years.  If curfews and similar policies actually reduced crime, we would have seen a sharp decrease in crime in 2020 relative to the average of previous years.  So what were the results of this yearlong natural experiment?

Well, you might wanna sit down before reading this.  Turns out, crime actually went way up in 2020 compared to the past few years, particularly homicides.  Data from the 2020 put the per capita homicide rate in the USA at a 23 year high (highest since 1997).  And of course, plenty of rioting as well.  Even mass shootings and hate crimes are up as well, and have persisted through both 2021 and 2022, well after such restrictions were finally lifted.

Even the supposedly good news about reported rapes being down in 2020 needs to be qualified.  Given how the vast majority of rapes occur behind closed doors and go unreported even in a normal year, the apparent decrease in 2020 may simply be an artifact of an increase in underreporting due to lockdown, especially since domestic violence and child abuse both appear to have increased significantly during lockdown.  The NCVS also shows a decrease in 2020 and 2021 as well, but given the secular downward trend since 1993, and the fact that survey data gathering may have been disrupted during the lockdowns, that needs to be qualified as well.

Reversion to the mean after the #MeToo movement crested and faded probably also played a role in the 2018 spike in self-reporting followed by an even larger crash.  The downward trend continued well after the lockdowns were over as well, so it is unlikely that the lockdowns actually reduced rape.

Back in April 2020, anecdotal evidence of course suggested that crime was down in some areas.  But clearly that decrease was short-lived, and then the opposite occurred.  Whether it is due to pent-up rage, restlessness, boredom, unemployment, fewer "eyes on the street", destruction of community, or all of the above, these sorts of authoritarian and illiberal policies clearly do more harm than good on balance.

So let this be the final nail in the coffin for lockdowns, curfews, and similar restrictions.  If curfews are to ever be used to fight crime and/or civil disorder, they need to be very limited, local, nuanced, and short-term--if they are to even be used at all.  And they certainly should NEVER be used to fight an airborne respiratory virus, as that is a major category error.

QED

P.S.  None of the above criticism of course precludes getting tough on REAL crime.  That is, any crimes that objectively harm the person or property of nonconsenting others.  That should really go without saying, but we will say it anyway.  "Catch and release" is every bit as dumb when it comes to real criminals as it is for fish, completely defeating the purpose.  Ditto for the equally boneheaded idea of "defund the police" as well.  Baby, meet bathwater.  Focused deterrence actually does work when done properly. 

A Band-Aid Solution In Search Of A Problem

We at Twenty-One Debunked already noted in a previous article how we oppose the proposed Texas social media ban for people under 18.  Now, there is a Republican bill in Congress that would effectively ban social media companies from allowing anyone under 16 from joining their platforms, opening them up to civil lawsuits from both states AND parents if they do so.  And the FTC would also be allowed to levy fines against them as well, in addition to the "privatized enforcement" resulting from the threat of lawsuits.

So much for the party of "small government".

While that is a marginally better idea than the Texas bill, if largely because the age limit is lower (though even the sponsors note the exact age limit will be negotiable to get bipartisan support, natch), and it effectively puts the heat entirely on the tech companies rather than young people themselves, it is still essentially a band-aid "solution" in search of a problem, like the Staples "Easy" button.  It is both over- and under-inclusive.  It both exaggerates the problems facing a particular age group while also minimizing the problems facing ALL ages.  The real root of the problem is the toxic algorithms that Big Tech designs to be as addictive as possible.  And TikTok is basically the CCP's digital equivalent of their biggest WMD of all, fentanyl, in that regard.

(And speaking of fentanyl, some social media apps such as Snapchat are currently being used by dealers to sell actual fentanyl to both kids and adults, typically disguised as counterfeit drugs such as pills.)

So what should we do instead?  Well, we could adopt the data privacy laws that the European Union currently has.  We could tax the "attention economy" by taxing the advertising that serves as the business model of Big Tech.  We could put regulations on the algorithms that Big Tech uses to manipulate its users of all ages and keep them hooked.  We could investigate Big Tech for antitrust violations. We could, you know, actually educate young people on social media literacy, ideally starting long before they go on such sites.  We could do a smartphone buyback (similar to gun buybacks) for all ages.  And we could also, you know, enforce existing age limits (typically 13) that are clearly NOT being followed in any meaningful sense, honored far more in the breach.

We need not violate the First Amendment in doing so either.  We can treat social media platforms as "common carriers", while regulating the real root of the problem, the toxic and addictive algorithms that can hardly be considered "protected speech," anymore than nuclear weapons could be considered protected by the Second Amendment. 

Or perhaps if Congresscritters and their talking heads are so concerned, they should mean what they say.  Declare a state of emergency, on the grounds that Big Tech and their social media is an existential threat to civilization itself. Impose a "quarantine" on them for "just two weeks" (right!) wherein all social media are frozen and archived during that time, so they cannot be used, and everyone is logged out simultaneously and cannot log back in during that time. During that time, We the People can then re-evaluate our often unexamined and unquestioned relationship to Big Tech, and in conjunction with our elected representatives in government, decide what the next steps (if any) will be.

I guarantee you, that would have saved FAR more lives than the Covid lockdowns ever would have, as the latter saved statistically zilch in the long run in terms of all-cause excess deaths.

Another idea:  Nationalize as public utilities all tech companies larger than a certain size, while banning any ones that are already nationalized (in theory or in practice) by hostile nations (TikTok and the CCP, I'm looking at you!).  Just like we should do with the "too big to fail (or jail)" banks.  Something to think about.

We could do all that and more.  But that would make too much sense, right?  I mean, why let mere facts and logic get in the way of a good moral panic?

(Mic drop)

UPDATE:  Republican Senator Josh Hawley's bill, with the aptly-Orwellian title "MATURE Act", would require social media users of all ages to submit 1) their full legal name, 2) date of birth, and 3) a scan/photo/copy of official government-issued IDs (driver license, birth certificate, etc.) for age verification to prove they are over 16 in order to set up a new account.  (Existing accounts would be grandfathered and not subject to this requirement, thank God for small mercies!)  That is, people of all ages would have to submit sensitive information to Big Tech, who we all know would NEVER use it for anything nefarious, right?  Let that sink in for a moment.  What could possibly go wrong?

Another bill, the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA), stops short of banning kids under 16 from social media, but rather seeks to make it safer for them.  And while the bill still has significant flaws that need addressing, we at Twenty-One Debunked would still much rather support that bill than the MATURE Act any day.  In fact, it may actually be enough to pre-empt the latter.

Even one of Hawley's previous bills would be better.

Ditto for the new California law, which goes into effect in 2024, which may very well become the national standard at some point.

FINAL THOUGHT:  Lest we forget, as Reason Magazine points out, social media, for all of its warts and flaws, was the only real lifeline that young people had during the pandemic lockdowns when they were not allowed to see their friends in person.  They make some great arguments as to how flawed this bill is.

Cannabis Legalization NOT Crazy-Making After All

Good news, it looks like cannabis legalization did NOT lead to a statistically significant increase in psychosis as the Chicken Little prohibitionists liked to claim.  And this new study was not done by hippy-dippy stoners, but by serious researchers at Stanford University, who published it in the esteemed Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).

Not even recreational retail store sales (i.e. cannabis commercialization) seemed to significantly move the needle in that regard, despite the obvious net increase in cannabis availabilty, convenience, and potency relative to not having such legal retail store sales, and the (eventual) net decrease in price per unit of THC.

And furthermore, when results were broken down by age, the results were totally in the "wrong" direction than the age-restrictionists would have predicted.

OOPS!

Looks like Alex Berenson was wrong about that, yet again.  And looks like Reefer Madness 2.0 was ultimately a flop once again.  Womp womp.

UPDATE:  See also here and here as well for further studies that pour cold water on the Reefer Madness 2.0 fearmongering.