A Band-Aid Solution In Search Of A Problem

We at Twenty-One Debunked already noted in a previous article how we oppose the proposed Texas social media ban for people under 18.  Now, there is a Republican bill in Congress that would effectively ban social media companies from allowing anyone under 16 from joining their platforms, opening them up to civil lawsuits from both states AND parents if they do so.  And the FTC would also be allowed to levy fines against them as well, in addition to the "privatized enforcement" resulting from the threat of lawsuits.

So much for the party of "small government".

While that is a marginally better idea than the Texas bill, if largely because the age limit is lower (though even the sponsors note the exact age limit will be negotiable to get bipartisan support, natch), and it effectively puts the heat entirely on the tech companies rather than young people themselves, it is still essentially a band-aid "solution" in search of a problem, like the Staples "Easy" button.  It is both over- and under-inclusive.  It both exaggerates the problems facing a particular age group while also minimizing the problems facing ALL ages.  The real root of the problem is the toxic algorithms that Big Tech designs to be as addictive as possible.  And TikTok is basically the CCP's digital equivalent of their biggest WMD of all, fentanyl, in that regard.

(And speaking of fentanyl, some social media apps such as Snapchat are currently being used by dealers to sell actual fentanyl to both kids and adults, typically disguised as counterfeit drugs such as pills.)

So what should we do instead?  Well, we could adopt the data privacy laws that the European Union currently has.  We could tax the "attention economy" by taxing the advertising that serves as the business model of Big Tech.  We could put regulations on the algorithms that Big Tech uses to manipulate its users of all ages and keep them hooked.  We could investigate Big Tech for antitrust violations. We could, you know, actually educate young people on social media literacy, ideally starting long before they go on such sites.  We could do a smartphone buyback (similar to gun buybacks) for all ages.  And we could also, you know, enforce existing age limits (typically 13) that are clearly NOT being followed in any meaningful sense, honored far more in the breach.

We need not violate the First Amendment in doing so either.  We can treat social media platforms as "common carriers", while regulating the real root of the problem, the toxic and addictive algorithms that can hardly be considered "protected speech," anymore than nuclear weapons could be considered protected by the Second Amendment. 

Or perhaps if Congresscritters and their talking heads are so concerned, they should mean what they say.  Declare a state of emergency, on the grounds that Big Tech and their social media is an existential threat to civilization itself. Impose a "quarantine" on them for "just two weeks" (right!) wherein all social media are frozen and archived during that time, so they cannot be used, and everyone is logged out simultaneously and cannot log back in during that time. During that time, We the People can then re-evaluate our often unexamined and unquestioned relationship to Big Tech, and in conjunction with our elected representatives in government, decide what the next steps (if any) will be.

I guarantee you, that would have saved FAR more lives than the Covid lockdowns ever would have, as the latter saved statistically zilch in the long run in terms of all-cause excess deaths.

Another idea:  Nationalize as public utilities all tech companies larger than a certain size, while banning any ones that are already nationalized (in theory or in practice) by hostile nations (TikTok and the CCP, I'm looking at you!).  Just like we should do with the "too big to fail (or jail)" banks.  Something to think about.

We could do all that and more.  But that would make too much sense, right?  I mean, why let mere facts and logic get in the way of a good moral panic?

(Mic drop)

UPDATE:  Republican Senator Josh Hawley's bill, with the aptly-Orwellian title "MATURE Act", would require social media users of all ages to submit 1) their full legal name, 2) date of birth, and 3) a scan/photo/copy of official government-issued IDs (driver license, birth certificate, etc.) for age verification to prove they are over 16 in order to set up a new account.  (Existing accounts would be grandfathered and not subject to this requirement, thank God for small mercies!)  That is, people of all ages would have to submit sensitive information to Big Tech, who we all know would NEVER use it for anything nefarious, right?  Let that sink in for a moment.  What could possibly go wrong?

Another bill, the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA), stops short of banning kids under 16 from social media, but rather seeks to make it safer for them.  And while the bill still has significant flaws that need addressing, we at Twenty-One Debunked would still much rather support that bill than the MATURE Act any day.  In fact, it may actually be enough to pre-empt the latter.

Even one of Hawley's previous bills would be better.

Ditto for the new California law, which goes into effect in 2024, which may very well become the national standard at some point.

FINAL THOUGHT:  Lest we forget, as Reason Magazine points out, social media, for all of its warts and flaws, was the only real lifeline that young people had during the pandemic lockdowns when they were not allowed to see their friends in person.  They make some great arguments as to how flawed this bill is.

Cannabis Legalization NOT Crazy-Making After All

Good news, it looks like cannabis legalization did NOT lead to a statistically significant increase in psychosis as the Chicken Little prohibitionists liked to claim.  And this new study was not done by hippy-dippy stoners, but by serious researchers at Stanford University, who published it in the esteemed Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).

Not even recreational retail store sales (i.e. cannabis commercialization) seemed to significantly move the needle in that regard, despite the obvious net increase in cannabis availabilty, convenience, and potency relative to not having such legal retail store sales, and the (eventual) net decrease in price per unit of THC.

And furthermore, when results were broken down by age, the results were totally in the "wrong" direction than the age-restrictionists would have predicted.

OOPS!

Looks like Alex Berenson was wrong about that, yet again.  And looks like Reefer Madness 2.0 was ultimately a flop once again.  Womp womp.

UPDATE:  See also here and here as well for further studies that pour cold water on the Reefer Madness 2.0 fearmongering. 

Who Are The Real Radicals?

The word radical generally refers to a person or group that wants to make drastic and fundamental (that is, radical) changes to society.  Derived from the Latin word for "root", in this way it illustrates just how fundamental such change is called for.  Classic examples that you oldsters reading this may recall from back in the day include Abbie Hoffman and Jerry Rubin.  But is Twenty-One Debunked really such a radical group like some may think it is?

Is it really radical to want all legal adults above the age of majority (18) to have the same rights that people over 21 currently enjoy, including (but not limited to) the right to use, possess, share, and purchase otherwise-legal psychoactive substances?

Is it really radical to believe that alcohol should be legal for all adults, period, like it is in nearly every single non-Muslim country in the world (and even some moderate Muslim countries too)?

Is it really radical to believe that cannabis, which is objectively safer overall than alcohol and tobacco and less addictive than coffee, should be re-legalized (it was not always illegal, only for a tiny fraction of history) for both recreational and medical use, fairly taxed, and regulated no more stringently than alcohol or tobacco (and legally sold and/or used in many if not most of the same places as well)?

Is it really radical to believe that, when it is legalized, the legal age limit for cannabis should not be any higher than the legal age of majority (18), nor any higher than for the more dangerous and addictive already-legal drugs, alcohol and tobacco?

Is it really radical to believe that, for as long as tobacco remains legal and readily available, those over the age of majority (18) should retain the right to decide for themselves whether or not to choose pleasure over longevity and indulge in this (albeit dangerous and deadly) substance?

Is it really radical to not want to punish the many (such as an entire demographic group) for the actions of the few?  And to prefer to hold individuals fully and solely accountable for their own misbehavior?

Is it really radical to believe that drinking establishments, and especially "social hosts" at private residences, should NOT be held vicariously liable for what their adult guests or customers do after leaving the premises following participation in voluntary intoxication on the premises?  And that personal responsibility for individuals should still be a thing?

Is it really radical to believe that, as John Stuart Mill believed, that individuals are fully sovereign over their own bodies and minds, at least as far as consenting adults are concerned?

Is it really radical to believe that our own bodies are NOT property of the state or any other entity besides ourselves, regardless of what the state or entity may claim or choose to provide us with?

Is it really radical to believe that adults should NOT have to be baby-sat?

Is it really radical to believe that if you're old enough to go to war, you're old enough to go to the bar?

Is it really radical to believe in logical consistency and common sense rather than arbitrary legality?

Is it really radical to favor personal autonomy rather than paternalism?

Is it really radical to believe that under a system of federalism, the federal government does NOT get to force or coerce states to raise their own legal age limits for alcohol (or any other legal substance) higher than their own legal ages of majority?

Is it really radical to believe that under a system of federalism, the federal government should have far LESS (if any) latitude in terms of micro-managing authority over We the People than the state and local governments do, and when in doubt should really stay in their own lane?

Is it really radical to still believe in the U.S. Constitution as the supreme law of the land?

Is it really radical to believe in liberty and justice for all?

Because if you think that these ideas are somehow radical, well, we've got news for you:  they are actually quite conservative and in line with both international and historical norms, even in our very own country before 1984 if you can believe that.  This shows just how far the Overton window has shifted both rightward and in the authoritarian direction, and just how far down the rabbit hole we have gone.

As Five Finger Death Punch would say, it's stranger than fiction, how we've decayed...

Still More Things Underage Drinkers Didn't Do

In the past, we would chronicle and discuss countless examples of drinkers OVER 21 behaving badly, as "Things Underage Drinkers Didn't Do".  Time to do it again:

In the past few weeks or so in America:

An underage drinker did NOT so desperately want an encore of New Year's Eve the following day that she got drunk, drove, and flipped her car, wrapping it around a telephone pole, splitting it in half, on New Year's Day.  And then had the chutzpah to yell at hospital staff who treated her injuries afterwards!

An underage drinker did NOT get so wasted that she rear-ended another driver, killing him, and then kept obliviously driving and sideswiping other vehicles.  She was three times over the legal BAC limit.

An underage drinker did NOT cause Florida's very first fatal drunk driving crash of 2023.

An underage drinker did NOT drive obviously drunk, lead police on a high-speed chase, and then have the chutzpah to proceed to fight with the officer after being pulled over.  Being a football star does NOT make one immune from consequences!

An underage drinker did NOT get himself an aggravated DUI plus a bunch of other charges as well for his egregiously reckless drunk driving escapades and even trying to flee, all while on a suspended, revoked, expired, or non-existent license.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly crash into another vehicle after blatantly driving the wrong direction on the highway.  But at least he was wearing a mask in his mugshot, albeit incorrectly, right? 

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly crash into and injure three people while double the legal BAC limit and on a suspended license.

And underage drinker did NOT drunkenly crash and injure himself and his three passengers, two of which were not yet legally old enough to drink.

An underage drinker did NOT get so extremely drunk that he passed out in Penn Station, and then had the chutzpah to assault the officers who roused him.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly pull out his gun and start shooting during an argument when a bystander made him pull over because he appeared to be driving drunk.  Guns and alcohol do NOT mix either!

An underage drinker did NOT drive drunk with his 2 year old daughter in his car, then assaulted a woman when she asked him to pull over so she could take the wheel.

An underage drinker did NOT drive nearly twice the legal BAC limit, with her young child in the car.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly hit his wife with a Christmas tree (!) after she asked him to help make dinner.   Yes, you read that correctly. 

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is just the tip of the iceberg....

Have A Safe And Happy Holiday Season

(This is a public service announcement)

It is that time of year again when the holidays are upon us, and many of us Americans (and around the world) will be celebrating with alcohol and/or other substances, pretty much back to normal now.  We at Twenty-One Debunked would like to remind everyone to be safe and celebrate responsibly.  There is absolutely no excuse for drunk driving at any age, period.  We cannot stress this enough.  It's very simple--if you plan to drive, don't drink, and if you plan to drink, don't drive.  It's really not rocket science, folks.  And there are numerous ways to avoid mixing the two.  Designate a sober driver, take a cab, use public transportation, crash on the couch, or even walk if you have to.  Or stay home and celebrate there.  Or simply don't drink--nobody's got a gun to your head.  Seriously, don't be stupid about it!  And the same goes for other psychoactive substances as well, and a fortiori when combined with alcohol.

ARRIVE ALIVE, DON'T DRINK AND DRIVE!!!   If you plan to drink, don't forget to think!  The life you save may very well be your own.

More Things Underage Drinkers Didn't Do

In the past, we would chronicle countless examples of drinkers OVER 21 behaving badly, as "Things Underage Drinkers Didn't Do".  But we have clearly been slacking lately.  Time to do it again:

In the past few weeks or so in America:

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly wrap her car around a telephone pole--and set a terrible example as Assistant District Attorney.

An underage drinker did NOT literally get her SEVENTH DUI since 2007.  

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly assault an officer while being arrested for a wrong-way DUI.

An underage drinker did NOT get arrested for DUI while on the job--as a state trooper.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly crash into and kill a 17 year old in another car, while another killed a 16 year old.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly ram his car into a police cruiser, with a BAC of a whopping 0.30%, nearly four times the legal limit.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly crash into and kill a motorcyclist.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly crash into and kill a sheriff's deputy. 

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly hold a razorblade to a woman's throat on an airplane.

An underage drinker did NOT have a drunken and violent meltdown on an airplane and try to fight off cops.

An underage drinker did NOT deliberately put alcohol in her baby's bottle, causing the baby to get sick.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is just the tip of the iceberg....

We Oppose The Proposed Texas Teen Social Media Ban

In Texas, a lawmaker has recently introduced a bill that would completely ban anyone under 18 from using any social media whatsoever, and require age verification via photo ID for anyone over 18 to open a social media account.  And Twenty-One Debunked opposes this bill for the following reasons:

• First and foremost, it is extremely ageist and a slippery slope.  And what's to stop them from arbitrarily raising the age limit even higher?
• It is far too broad an overreach, and throws the proverbial baby out with the bathwater.  Social media does have a dark side that we all should be aware of, but a blanket ban on everyone under 18 is NOT the way to deal with it. 
• Young people ages 13-17 are not adults, but they are not entirely children either.  There needs to be far more nuance than this sort of blanket ban.
• It is yet another intrusive instance of Big Brother, that also affects people over 18 as well.
• There is no obvious grandfather clause for anyone already over 13 but under 18 who currently already has social media accounts. 
• It will disadvantage people under 18 relative to people over 18 when it comes to networking for jobs (keep in mind that LinkedIn would count as social media under this bill).
• It will simply drive people under 18 onto the Dark Web instead, where there are NO rules or limits of any kind, period.  If they are tech savvy enough to set up and regularly use their own Facebook, Twitter, or TikTok account, they are also savvy enough to download Tor and then go down a far, far worse rabbit hole of horrors.

Thus, this ageist bill is a massive government overreach that will do far more harm than good on balance.  If we must have any hard age limits for social media by enforceable law, and that is a VERY big "if", they should not be any higher than 16 at most.  Age verification is OK in principle, but it needs to be done very carefully to avoid unintended consequences in terms of privacy and such.

So what should we do instead?  Well, we could adopt the data privacy laws that the European Union currently has.  We could tax the "attention economy" by taxing the advertising that serves as the business model of Big Tech.  We could put regulations on the algorithms that Big Tech uses to manipulate its users of all ages and keep them hooked.  We could investigate Big Tech for antitrust violations. We could, you know, actually educate young people on social media literacy, ideally starting long before they go on such sites.  We could do a smartphone buyback (similar to gun buybacks) for all ages.  And we could also, you know, enforce existing age limits (typically 13) that are clearly NOT being followed in any meaningful sense, honored far more in the breach.

We could do all that and more.  But that would make too much sense, right?

To all lawmakers:  please vote a HARD NO on this bill and any similar bills.  And to all parents and other adults reading this:  be a mentor, not a tormentor.

The Invisible Knapsack (Updated)

Three decades ago, Wellesley College professor Peggy McIntosh coined the term "invisible knapsack" to refer to the subtle and not-so-subtle advantages that come with white privilege and male privilege resulting from inequality.  She describes such privilege as being "like an invisible weightless knapsack of special provisions, maps, passports, codebooks, visas, clothes, tools and blank checks".  The idea is that while we are generally taught that racism and sexism put some people (i.e. women and people of color) at a disadvantage, we are often taught to remain blissfully unaware of its corollary advantages that accrue to white males.  Hence, the "invisible knapsack" of privilege.

We at Twenty-One Debunked couldn't help but notice just how much this metaphor also relates to America's 21 drinking age and the "over-21 privilege" that results.  Being well over 21 myself, as the webmaster and founder of Twenty-One Debunked I have put together a list of advantages in the invisible knapsack of over-21 privilege that people like myself carry every day.   We have updated this list to include tobacco and cannabis as well now.  As a person over 21, as long as I have a valid ID to prove it:

1. I can buy alcoholic beverages at any store that sells them, in any quantity I wish.
2. I can do the same with tobacco and cannabis as well if I desire to do so.  I can even openly smoke both in some public places if I want to.
3. I can enter pretty much any bar or nightclub of my choosing without fearing that people of my age group cannot get in or will be mistreated in the places I have chosen.
4. If I do not want to associate with people under 21, I may frequent numerous establishments that ban younger people from entering.
5. I can get a hotel room with relatively little difficulty as long as I can afford it, since hotels are less likely to cast aspersions on me due to my age.
6. I am never asked to speak for all of the people in my age group, nor do I have to worry about my individual behavior reflecting on my entire age group.
7. I can legally host a drinking party with my friends, as long as all the guests are over 21.
8. I can join my co-workers for happy hour after work, and even talk about it at work, without any sort of shame.
9. When I go out with people under 21, it is generally understood that one (or more) of them will be the designated driver instead of me.
10. Generally speaking, I can drink alcoholic beverages fairly openly without having to worry about getting arrested, fined, jailed, expelled, fired, having my driver's license revoked, or being publicly humiliated.  Ditto for smoking tobacco and/or cannabis as well.
11. As long as I am not driving or operating machinery, I can legally get as drunk (or stoned, or both) as I please in many states. 
12. Even in states where public drunkenness is technically illegal, the cops are unlikely to arrest me unless my behavior is really out of control.  There is no equivalent to "internal possession" laws for my age group.
13. If I do manage to get in alcohol-related trouble on campus, which is far less likely for me, I will likely face lesser penalties, and I will not have to worry about my parents being notified without my consent.
14. If I think one of my over-21 peers may have alcohol poisoning, there would be no reason for me to hesitate to call 911 for fear of the law (and vice-versa).
15. I can have a drink or two (or maybe even three!) before driving without having to worry about being over the legal limit for DUI. 
16. Even if I drive while over the limit, I can be assured that drunk drivers in my age group will NOT be the highest law enforcement priority.  I can just take the back roads and hope for the best, and know that the law enforcement statistics are largely on my side as long as it's not a major holiday or the end of the month.
17. If I choose to drive drunk, I can know that I am statistically far more likely to kill someone under 21 than the other way around.
18. Even if I had several convictions for DUI or drunken violence, I can rest assured that I will still be allowed to buy and consume alcohol as I please.
19. I enjoy less scrutiny over my own behavior, because I live in a society in which young people are scapegoated for adult problems.
20. I do not have to worry about being a good role model when it comes to drinking, since people under 21 can be punished (often severely) for emulating me.
21. To really top it off, I have an easier time getting my hands on semiautomatic assault rifles and dangerous weapons in general, especially handguns.  In fact, in some states, I can even carry concealed weapons in a bar!
22. Finally, I have a much better chance of being taken seriously on the issue of lowering the drinking age, or any other age limit for that matter, without being knee-jerkedly accused of selfishness or immaturity.

And the list goes on.  As we see, the 21 drinking age is not just about disadvantaging people under 21, but giving unearned advantages to people over 21 as well.  And while some of these advantages are positive rights that should be extended to everyone (or at least all adults over 18), others are not "rights" at all, but wrongs that are an unfortunate byproduct of setting arbitrary age limits and of adultism in general.  Still others could be considered either rights or wrongs depending on the context.  And let's not forget the luxury of being able to blissfully ignore the issue entirely.

So, are the advantages found in this invisible knapsack really worth it?  Many people over 21 would say yes, but upon closer examination these advantages actually come at a hefty price, even for people over 21.  Just think about social host liability laws, other annoying ancillary laws, ubiquitous ID checks, millions of tax dollars wasted on enforcement, loss of social cohesion, karma, and highly dubious legal precedent that can be used to make our supposedly free country even more of a police state via turnkey tyranny.  In fact, the only people over 21 who, on balance, really benefit from the status quo are the ones who least deserve to benefit--those who drive drunk or otherwise behave irresponsibly when it comes to alcohol, as well as those parents who would rather stick their heads in the sand than teach their kids how to drink responsibly.

Do you hear that?  That's (hopefully) the sound of the pro-21 crowd throwing up all of the proverbial Kool-Aid that they drank long ago.

Americans Are Still Drowning In The Bottom Of The Bottle

And the pandemic, or more accurately, the lockdowns and isolation (antisocial distancing) imposed on Americans, was only gasoline on the already-raging fire.  The USA was in fact the only major country to see a net increase in overall alcohol consumption during the pandemic, and one of only a few countries to see an increase in alcohol-related deaths as well, especially among prime working-age adults.  After decades of the failed social experiment of the ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age, we are now seeing a clear divergence from the rest of the world (and not in a good way!) among the generations who came of age since then.

Of course, the neo-temperance crowd as well as the ageists (is there really any other kind these days?) would counter that this only proves that Americans can't handle their alcohol, so therefore lowering the drinking age to 18 would be even worse.  But what they are tacitly admitting by saying this specious argument is that Americans are inferior to Europeans--do they really want to concede that?  Didn't think so.  And by that same logic, they might as well call for bringing back Prohibition for all ages, as that would be the ultimate logical conclusion of that utterly patronizing and paternalistic argument.  

Besides, we know now that, while all policy measures have their hard limits, the most time-tested, efficient, effective, and cost-effective one of all is to simply raise the price of alcohol, generally via taxation.  Wayland Ellis has pointed that out several times, and it is the one thing that he and the polar-opposite Philip N. Cook can agree upon.  The late Mark Kleiman also made a similar argument years ago.  Alcohol taxes and prices have been lagging behind inflation for decades in the USA, so therefore the lowest-hanging fruit to make headway against America's growing drinking problem is to raise such taxes.  In fact, if set high enough, practically no other alcohol regulations or restrictions are needed at all.  

Another promising idea, would be similar to what parts of the Northern Territory of Australia, as well as parts of Western Australia, currently have:  something called the Banned Drinker Register (BDR).  It is exactly what it sounds like, and targets actual problem drinkers individually only, with no collateral damage to non-problem drinkers.  This can also be paired with something like South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program for those convicted of drunk driving, drunk violence, drunk vandalism, or repeated disorderly conduct violations.  In addition, problem drinkers can also have themselves voluntarily added to the blacklist for a fixed period of time, much like problem gamblers are currently allowed to do. (Call it "86 Me" or something like that.)  Mark Kleiman would certainly have approved of that as well.  And aside from the downside of ID checking of all buyers that would be required to enforce the BDR (not radically different from the status quo), it is actually the most libertarian policy that there is.  Libertarian purists, of course, would probably only support the South Dakota style 24/7 program and the voluntary blacklist, and that would be fine with Twenty-One Debunked either way.

And of course, let America be America again, and lower the drinking age to 18.  If you're old enough to go to war, you're old enough to go to the bar.  'Nuff said.

Is There A "Laffer Curve" Effect for Alcohol Taxes/Prices Versus Alcohol-Related Harms?

The famous (and controversial) Laffer Curve, sometimes called the Laffer-Khaldun Curve, posits that raising taxes beyond a certain point will decrease revenue rather than increase it.  Would such a relationship also hold for alcohol, not only for revenue, but for alcohol-related harms as well?  

Twenty-One Debunked has repeatedly noted that previous studies have generally found a reasonably strong inverse relationship between alcohol prices/taxes and alcohol-related harms.  That is probably the only thing that both Philip N. Cook and Wayland Ellis would agree upon, which really says something as they are on polar opposite ends to the alcohol regulation spectrum in general, and in particular the issue of the 21 drinking age.  

But does there ever reach a point beyond which this relationship breaks down and ceases to be true, or even reverses?  The recent experience of Scotland seems to suggest as much.  As British libertarian author and blogger Christopher Snowdon (no relation to the Wikileaks guy) notes in his blog, Velvet Glove, Iron Fist, a recent study found that Scotland's minimum unit pricing (MUP) scheme did NOT work as intended.  This mandated price floor of 50 pence per British standard unit of alcohol (about $1 per standard Amercian drink at the time, before the sterling crumbled recently) failed to meaningfully reduce alcohol consumption, particularly among the heaviest drinkers.  In fact, some population subgroups even saw increases in consumption.  And there was no effect on alcohol-related ER visits or crime either.  And it didn't even help the beleaguered pub industry either as promised.  Oops!

That's some pretty weak sauce if you ask us!

(And apparently not just Scotland, but also in Ireland has now implemented MUP as well.)

One study concluded at the end of 2018, long before the pandemic and lockdowns of course, and the other concluded in January 2020.  But what happened in the UK as a result of the lockdown-induced reduction in alcohol availability and marketing?  After all, as Joseph Califano of CASA famously said, "availability is the mother of abuse", so alcohol abuse and problems should have plummeted, right?  WRONG.  Snowdon notes that while overall alcohol consumption declined in the UK, the number of alcohol-specfic deaths actually increased.  Apparently, the average level of drinking in a population does not determine the extent of heavy drinking, it's the other way around.  And this natural experiment proves it more elegantly than any other study in history, and that also explains partly why MUP in Scotland failed to have the desired and predicted effects on the heaviest drinkers, who are apparently less sensitive to price and availability than the general population.

After all, the determinants of heavy drinking, and especially alcohol dependence, are likely quite different than those of drinking in general, and price is clearly one of the much lesser factors in their behavior.  And given the outsized impact on population health being driven by such a small minority of heavy drinkers, targeting the entire population so bluntly is unlikely to improve overall population health by very much if at all.

That's not to say that alcohol that is extremely cheap in a relative sense by historical and international standards, such as in the USA today, doesn't still generate some problems that respond to modest tax/price hikes at all.  That is probably still true, noting that America was the only major country in the world to see a net increase in overall alcohol consumption during lockdowns (to say nothing of the heaviest end of the drinking scale, let that sink in).  In the UK, even prior to the Scottish MUP scheme as well as during, it should be noted that nationwide alcohol taxes were already quite high and outpacing inflation for a while, and as of 2014 it was already prohibited to sell alcohol "below cost" in stores nationwide.  Thus further price hikes on the lower-end beverages may have had a more limited marginal effect and pushed the total prices to the wrong side of a Laffer-esque curve.  But we do know now that the overly simplistic models of the neo-temperance lobby leave a lot to be desired, to put it mildly.  The "whole population approach" clearly has some very hard limits.

After all, drinking per se is not the problem, excessive drinking (and the outrageous behavior that often goes with it) is the real problem.  And the 95th percentile of drinkers (top 5% of drinkers) seems to be quite inelastic (i.e. insensitive) to price.  Cart, meet horse.

The upshot:  while Twenty-One Debunked still supports raising alcohol taxes in the USA, within reason, we note that the effects are far more nuanced than we once thought, and often quite tenuous. 

UPDATE:  Apparently, alcohol-related deaths did drop by 10% in the first full year after MUP was implemented in Scotland, to the lowest level since 2013.  Another study found a 13% drop in alcohol-related deaths.  But in light of the other lackluster findings above, the actual causality of this correlation remains unclear for the time being.  Only time will tell if there are any long-term benefits to this policy, which is set to sunset in 2024, six years after it was first implemented in May 2018.  MUP does seem to be effective in Canada and Northern Territory, Australia. 

Also, another nuance that gets glossed over is that while alcohol taxes are now relatively high on beer, wine, and spirits in the UK, they are still quite low for cider.  Thus, MUP had the largest effect on the prices of cheap, high-strength ciders, many of which are "ciders" in name only due to a legal loophole.

And back to the topic of lockdowns, did you know that in 2020, for 13-18 year olds, the number of drug/alcohol deaths actually DOUBLED compared to the average of the several years leading up to it?   Lockdowns are clearly NOT benign for children or young people at all, and the next person to say "kids are resilient" can go take a long walk off a short pier!

(Corrections were made to some of the dates in the article above.)