Do Tobacco 21 Laws Really Work?

A recent study claims that Tobacco 21 laws work to reduce teen tobacco use.  But upon closer examination, there is less here than meets the eye.  While this new nationwide study controlled for a host of other variables and spanned from 2012-2019, it still leaves the reader with more questions than answers.  

For example, the supposed effect in survey data in grades 8, 10, and 12 was statistically significant for combustible cigarettes, particularly for grade 12, but NOT for vape products at any grade level, while for the Nielsen sales data the apparent effect was much larger for vape products than combustible cigarettes.  How exactly can this glaring contradiction be explained away?  Also, no significant effect was observed on heavy smoking, which intuitively should have had the largest effect size of all due to heavy smokers facing the greatest "hassle costs" when cigarettes become even somewhat more difficult to obtain.  And even for cigarette smoking in general, the absolute difference-in-differences was a few percentage points at most, for a substance whose popularity and prevalence was already declining among all ages long before the age limit was hiked to 21 (in contrast to vaping, which increased dramatically among young people during this period).

Furthermore, the study did not look beyond the first two years post-enactment of such laws, so any observed effects may very well be merely short-term effects (cf. Miron and Tetelbaum 2009 for the 21 drinking age and alcohol-related traffic fatalities).

Interestingly, the study authors do concede that at least some of the observed effect on people under 18 is a result of increased ID checking and increased perception of risk of of tobacco products.  Of course, we know that it is not really necessary to raise the age limit higher than 18 to achieve such effects.

Overall, this nationwide Tobacco 21 study (the second of its kind) was rather less impressive that an earlier nationwide study by different authors, for reasons that are not entirely clear.  But it is very likely a repeat of what we like to call "The Incredible Shrinking Effect Size", a phenomenon that we have seen before with studies of the 21 drinking age over time.  Which means that it was most likely a statistical mirage all along, at least in the long run.

Regardless of what sort of effects, or lack thereof, that Tobacco 21 laws supposedly had, we at Twenty-One Debunked nonetheless oppose such laws on principle 100%, just like we oppose the 21 drinking age and toking age as well.  Let America be America Again!

UPDATE:  A recent pro-21 article made a Freudian slip about what happened since Texas raised their smoking age to 21 in 2019:

"Since then, the use of tobacco by teens decreased from 21.8% in 2019 to 19.1% in 2021, according to the CDC and the American Lung Association."

That is NOT a particularly large difference in teen tobacco use (which includes both smoking and vaping), especially since teen vaping had already peaked by 2019 and teen smoking had already been plummeting for decades.  Technically, the latter data were from the 2020 Texas School Survey, not 2021, and the 2019 data were from the CDC YRBS, as each survey is done only every other year.  But either way, the point still stands.  In fact, when compared to the 2018 TSS data, the 2020 TSS data are almost identical.

2023 UPDATE:  The study in question has been recently revised, but not in a way that materially alters any of the above conclusions or criticisms.  In fact, reading between the lines, not only does the results look even less consistent and statistically significant than before, but now the effect size on survey results seems to be much larger for vaping than for smoking at all grade levels, implying that some vapers have likely switched to smoking.  That makes the Tobacco 21 policy a net public health loser.

2024 UPDATE:  A 2021 study of California, one of the first two states to implement a statewide Tobacco 21 law in 2016, showed weak and unimpressive numbers in a difference-in-differences analysis.  Womp womp.

Have A Safe And Happy Memorial Day Weekend

This coming Monday, May 30, is Memorial Day, often known as the unofficial first day of summer and National BBQ Day.  But let's remember what it really is--a day to honor all of the men and women of our armed forces who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country, past and present.  And that of course includes all of those who died serving our country before they were legally old enough to drink.  Let us all take a moment of silence to honor them.

As for Candy Lightner, the ageist turncoat founder of MADD who had the chutzpah and hubris to go on national TV in 2008 and publicly insult our troops, may her name and memory be forever blotted out. 

And as always, arrive alive, don't drink and drive.  It's just not worth it, period.  And it's very simple to prevent.  If you plan to drive, don't drink, and if you plan to drink, don't drive.  It's not rocket science.   Designate a sober driver, call a cab or rideshare, crash on the couch, or even walk if you have to.  Or don't drink--nobody's got a gun to your head.

Legalization Of Cannabis For Adults, Even With Age Limit Of 18, Does NOT Significantly Increase Teen Use

Lest anyone think that the feared massive post-legalization surge in teen cannabis use somehow NOT materializing in the USA (in legalization states) was somehow due to the age limit being set at 21, a recent study found that Canada also did not see a post-legalization surge in teen use either, and their age limit was 18 in Alberta and Quebec and 19 in other provinces at the time of the study (Quebec has unfortunately since raised it to 21 as of January 1, 2020, but the study ended with the 2018-2019 school year while it was still 18).  There was no statistically significant difference between cohorts of students before and after legalization in Canada.  And while Alberta had the highest reported rate of high school cannabis use of the handful of provinces studied, both before and after national legalization in October 2018, Quebec interestingly had the lowest.  And the other two provinces studied (Ontario and British Columbia) were somewhere in between.  

Note that modest short-term increases in occasional or experimental use, by perhaps a few percentage points, are actually to be expected, if only because they will likely be more honest in surveys now.

As for the specious claim that Uruguay (age limit 18) saw an increase in teen cannabis use after legalization in 2013, that claim was based on cherry-picking two arbitrary years:  2003 and 2014, without considering more recent trends.  And even in the Netherlands, there was no increase in teen cannabis use that could be unambiguously linked to their policy of quasi-legalization for adults over 18 since 1976 (note that it was originally 16, just like the drinking and tobacco smoking age once was, in most of the country until 1996).

Point is, just like with alcohol or tobacco, teens who are inclined to use cannabis will do so whether or not it is legal or not for them (or their slightly older near-peers) to do so.  And like alcohol (but unlike tobacco), most of those who experiment with it will not become regular users, let alone problem users or addicts.  And prohibition of either for adults, including young adults, clearly does NOT stop teens from using.

Thus, there is no good reason to set the age limit any higher than 18.  Period.

UPDATE:  Looks like Uruguay actually saw a decrease in cannabis use among youth under 18 following legalization.  For 18-21 year olds, there was a modest short-term increase in 2014, followed by a decrease.  Note that Uruguay set their cannabis age limit at 18.

And back in the States, guess what?  Contrary to the doomsayers, legalization still did not cause an increase in teen cannabis use as of 2023.

Vices Are Not Crimes

One of the most important timeless lessons learned, then forgotten, then learned again, then forgotten again, and so on, is Lysander Spooner's famous maxim that "vices are not crimes".  And to forget this crucial distinction, is to ultimately lead to numerous evils, from 1) amoralism and nihilism on the one hand, and 2) the most egregiously tyrannical abuses and overreach of government power (from things like Prohibition, the War on (people who use a few particular) Drugs, MLDA 21, etc. all the way to slavery, eugenics, and sometimes even full-blown genocide) on the other, typically disguised as either protecting the nation's "moral fiber", and/or "progressive" social engineering for the "greater good".  In truth, it is anything but moral or progressive.  Thus, individual rights must be inalienable, and the government should never stray from its original mission of protecting life, liberty, and property.  Once the natural right to self-ownership becomes usurped by the state, the very foundation for individual rights ceases to exist, and of course that invites all kinds of trouble, as history has so painfully shown time and again.

To quote Spooner, from his Vices Are Not Crimes; A Vindication of Moral Liberty (1875):

"Vices are those acts by which a man harms himself or his property. Crimes are those acts by which one man harms the person or property of another…In vices, the very essence of crime—that is, the design to injure the person or property of another—is wanting." 

"Unless this clear distinction between vices and crimes be made and recognized by the laws, there can be…no such thing as individual right, liberty, or property; no such things as the right of one man to the control of his own person and property." 

"If these questions…are not to be left free and open for experiment by all, each person is deprived of the highest of all his rights as a human being, to wit: his right to…ascertain for himself, what is, to him, virtue, and what is, to him, vice…If this great right is not to be left free and open to all, then each man’s whole right, as a reasoning human being, to 'liberty and the pursuit of happiness,' is denied him." 

"What man, or what body of men, has the right to say, in regard to any particular action, or course of action, 'We have tried this experiment, and determined every question involved in it…not only for ourselves, but for all…And, as to all those who are weaker than we, we will coerce them to act in obedience to our conclusion?'" 

"[A] government, formed by voluntary association, would never have been thought of, if the object proposed had been the punishment of all vices…nobody…would voluntarily submit to it. But a government, formed by voluntary association, for the punishment of all crimes is a reasonable matter; because everybody wants protection for himself against all crimes by others." 

"It is a natural impossibility that a government should have a right to punish men for their vices; because it is impossible that a government should have any rights, except such as the individuals composing it had previously had, as individuals. They could not delegate to a government any rights which they did not themselves possess." 

"Nobody but a fool or an impostor pretends that he, as an individual, has a right to punish other men for their vices. But…everybody has a natural right…to defend his own person and property against aggressors…And government has no rightful existence, except in so far as it embodies, and is limited by, this natural right of individuals...It is only those who claim that government has some rightful power, which no individual or individuals ever did, or could, delegate to it, that claim that government has any rightful power to punish vices." 

"To punish men for their vices…is a sheer and utter absurdity for any government claiming to derive its power wholly from the grant of the governed…because it would be granting away their own right to seek their own happiness." 

"Everybody wishes to be protected, in his person and property, against the aggressions of other men. But nobody wishes to be protected… against himself…He only wishes to promote his own happiness, and to be his own judge as to what will promote, and does promote, his own happiness." 

"The object aimed at in the punishment of crimes is to secure, to each and every man alike, the fullest liberty he possibly can have—consistently with the equal rights of others—to pursue his own happiness, under the guidance of his own judgment, and by the use of his own property…the object aimed at in the punishment of vices is to deprive every man of his natural right and liberty to pursue his own happiness, under the guidance of his own judgment, and by the use of his own property."

"[People]…must be permitted to control themselves and their property… each man’s life is his own."

We ignore such sound advice at our own peril.

The Right Way, And Wrong Way, To Phase Out Tobacco

We are now officially in, or at least quickly approaching, the "endgame" of tobacco control, as they say.  In chess, the endgame is said to begin when queens begin to disappear, and thus checkmate is increasingly within reach.  In tobacco control, it roughly begins when 1) smoking prevalence drops low enough, 2) the best "cards" of existing tobacco policy measures have already been played enough, and 3) the Overton window has shifted far enough against smoking, that it is now becoming increasingly realistic to openly consider phasing out at least some types of combustible tobacco products (especially cigarettes) at some point in the future.

Various targets for reducing overall smoking prevalence have been floated by various experts, such as a goal of no more than 5% by 2025 or 2030, no more than 2% by 2050 or 2060, and so on.  And beyond simple aggregate numbers, another related goal is to reduce the massive (and often widening) inequalities by race, ethnicity, socioeconomic class, etc. within those numbers in various countries. 

Twenty-One Debunked acknowledges that there are some very good arguments for such a phaseout that even many libertarians can grudgingly concede, given how 1) cigarettes are the only legal product which, when used as directed, kill at least half of those who use it, making them defective by design, 2) most smokers admittedly dislike their habit and want to quit, but often have great difficulty doing so, 3) cigarettes rob people of their autonomy, 4) alternatives currently exist.  And that is before one even delves into the negative "externalities" that these products impose on others and the environment.

That said, there are right ways to further such a goal, and there are wrong ways.

A number of endgame strategies have been discussed, some of which have been implemented recently.  These include, 1) banning the sale of cigarettes, and possibly other combustible tobacco products, in a given jurisdiction completely from some future date onwards, after a reasonably long delay, 2) putting a gradually "sinking lid" on the number of tobacco retail outlet licenses, until the number of licenses drops to zero, 3) phasing down the maximum allowable nicotine content of cigarettes, and possibly other combustible tobacco products, to a non-addictive level, 4) hiking the excise tax by 10% every year, and 5) an age-based (or "generational") strategy that permanently bans the sale of tobacco products to anyone born after a specific year (say, 2000 or 2010), while still allowing it for those born before that year.

It is this last one that Twenty-One Debunked takes the most umbrage at of all.  We denounce this arbitrary discrimination by age for the same reasons that we denounce the Tobacco 21 laws.  We believe it is wrong on principle as it flies directly in the face of any idea of equal protection of the law, by denying individual rights to some group of legal adults relative to others.  And not only that, but it is a truly lousy endgame strategy that drags things out that much longer compared to, say, the first strategy on the aforementioned list (i.e. banning it for everyone).

Twenty-One Debunked prefers the third strategy on the list, namely phasing down the maximum allowable nicotine levels in cigarettes to a non-addictive level, and only for cigarettes and little cigars/cigarillos, and possibly roll-your-own cigarette tobacco.  Leave all other tobacco products alone, and keep vaping products on the market, albeit with the maximum allowable nicotine levels reduced to European or Israeli levels (which is still plenty strong).  We have preferred that strategy since 2013, in fact.  We do NOT prefer the first two strategies, but would still much rather have those than the last.  Even the tax hike strategy (which increasingly robs from the poor and gives to the rich) is head-and-shoulders better than that!

Another thing we would find at least somewhat acceptable would be to limit the types of stores that can sell tobacco products.  For example, they could only allow tobacco to be sold at dedicated tobacco/vape shops, or stores that one must be 18 or older to enter.  That would thus eliminate the most visual temptations for children and teens, and triggers for relapse that former smokers have to face every day, at convenience stores, grocery stores, etc.  Or at the very least, stop selling them at pharmacies.

One should note that commercial, pre-rolled cigarettes, more so than any other existing tobacco product, are by far the very biggest drivers of the tobacco epidemic of the past century, so even if those (plus little cigars) were the only targeted item for a tobacco endgame strategy, any switching to alternatives would not even come close to sustaining such an epidemic for long on the scale that it has been thus far.  All of the other combustibles (medium to large cigars, pipe tobacco, hookah/shisha) and smokeless tobacco (chew, dip, snuff, snus, lozenges, etc.) have always been basically niche products.  So let's not throw out the baby with the bathwater now.

But whatever strategy one follows, we must be sure to allow enough lead time for a just transition and to minimize the creation of black markets, and we must not criminalize possession or consumption of tobacco.  Any endgame strategy worth following must concentrate on the supply side, while also tackling demand by making quitting easier.  Vilification of smokers does not further that goal in the long run.

UPDATE:  The FDA is now moving to join Canada, the UK, and EU in banning menthol cigarettes (and perhaps flavored cigars too).  Twenty-One Debunked is kinda on the fence about that, but at this point we will not oppose it.  The reason why Big Tobacco adds menthol is because it masks the harsh taste of nicotine, making it easier to get hooked and harder to quit, particularly for young people.  And while the much-noted racial overtones and undertones of menthol cigarettes are practically unique to the USA, due to decades of aggressively race-targeted marketing by Big Tobacco, the sheer deadliness and addictiveness of these products makes them a net detriment to the Black community on balance.

Japan Lowers Age Of Majority From 20 To 18, But There's A Catch

Japan has decided, for the first time since the Meiji Restoration, to finally lower the legal age of majority (adulthood) to 18, effective April 1, 2022.  But before anyone starts celebrating, note that the drinking age, smoking age, and gambling age will all still remain at 20, because reasons.  Really.  Despite the fact that the age limit will now be 18 for literally ALL other adult rights and responsibilities, including, but not limited to, being tried and punished as an adult.

So for 18-19 year old young adults, this feels like a cruel April Fool's Day joke at best.

Long Past Time To Lower The Drinking Age To 18

It's 2022 now, and this year may be a golden opportunity to finally lower the legal drinking age to 18 after so many decades of it being 21.  As the ignominious Covid regime continues to unravel and collapse faster than formerly healthy young athletes on the field after being injected with you-know-what, more and more people are questioning not only that, but the whole entire concepts of statism, safetyism, paternalism, and authoritarianism in general.  And with all the many parallels that can be drawn between the illiberal lockdown restrictions and mask and vaccine mandates and passports on the one hand, and the illiberal and ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age, one can easily draw a straight line between these illiberal policies.

The Overton window has finally been cracked open.  Let's get the drinking age lowered to 18 before it slams shut once again.  What better time than now?

Also, be sure to check out some great videos from the legendary Allistair Cooke as well as Leon Louw in regards to arguments against the drinking age.

Have A Safe And Happy Holiday Season

(This is a public service announcement)

It is that time of year again when the holidays are upon us, and many of us Americans (and around the world) will be celebrating with alcohol and/or other substances, even if they are doing it rather differently this year for obvious reasons.  We at Twenty-One Debunked would like to remind everyone to be safe and celebrate responsibly.  There is absolutely no excuse for drunk driving at any age, period.  We cannot stress this enough.  It's very simple--if you plan to drive, don't drink, and if you plan to drink, don't drive.  It's really not rocket science, folks.  And there are numerous ways to avoid mixing the two.  Designate a sober driver, take a cab, use public transportation, crash on the couch, or even walk if you have to.  Or stay home and celebrate there.  Or simply don't drink--nobody's got a gun to your head.  Seriously, don't be stupid about it!  And the same goes for other psychoactive substances as well, and a fortiori when combined with alcohol.

ARRIVE ALIVE, DON'T DRINK AND DRIVE!!!   If you plan to drink, don't forget to think!  The life you save may very well be your own.

Fewer Young People In A Hurry To Drive

In the USA today, people still seem to get their driver's licenses earlier than Europeans, as we have more of a car culture over here.  But that gap is closing, since apparently fewer and fewer young Americans are gung-ho about driving or learning to drive these days, our rather persistent car culture and very limited public transportation notwithstanding.

Canada is probably the same way, despite also being a car culture with limited public transportation as well.  And their drinking ages are 18 or 19 depending on the province.  Meanwhile, their traffic fatality rates, both alcohol-related and otherwise, are in fact lower than those in the USA, in every age group in fact.

One can also say the same about Australia as well, whose drinking age is 18, is a car culture, and has even lower traffic fatality rates as well for all ages, both alcohol-related and otherwise.

And so while not completely irrelevant yet in that sense, the tired old drunk driving argument against lowering the drinking age to 18 is indeed far less relevant compared with the way it was one 1980s and 1990s.  But honestly, the drunk driving argument never made sense to us.  DUI is already illegal, and even more illegal now than it was in the 1980s. And doing so is dangerous at any age, not just under 21. And of course, it is perfectly possible to not mix alcohol and driving.  Punishing all drinkers under some arbitrary age limit by depriving them of liberty on the mere supposition that they *might* get behind the wheel after driving (and thus in turn *might* harm innocent people) goes against everything a free society stands for, and is 100% un-American.  And just like "flattening the curve", the best it does is kick the can down the road without actually solving anything.  Studies by Dirscherl (2011), Miron and Tetelbaum (2009), Dee (2001), as well as Asch and Levy (1987 and 1990), et al., bear this fact out quite nicely.

Let America be America Again, and lower the drinking age to 18.  If you're old enough to go to war, you're old enough to go to the bar.  'Nuff said.

QED

Legalization Of Cannabis Did NOT Cause Carnage On The Highways

The latest Canadian study confirms yet again that legalization of cannabis did NOT actually cause carnage on the highways like the fearmongers had predicted.  And that is for a country that legalized the herb for everyone over 18 at the federal level, while individual provinces could set it higher (currently 18 in Alberta, 18 in Quebec until it was raised to 21 in early 2020, and 19 for all other provinces).  Despite the generally lower age limits in Canada, these results dovetail nicely with those of most studies of the several US states that legalized it for people over 21.

And yes, the most recent study looked at Alberta (18) along with Ontario (19), both provinces whose legal toking ages are equivalent to their drinking and smoking ages.  Neither province showed significant increases in traffic-related ER visits post-legalization, whether for young people or otherwise.  Really.

In other words, regardless of the age limit chosen, cannabis legalization was NOT a disaster after all.   So what are we waiting for?  Let's do the Alberta model (legal at 18 for alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis, period) in all US states and territories.  Yesterday.