The Right Way, And Wrong Way, To Phase Out Tobacco

We are now officially in, or at least quickly approaching, the "endgame" of tobacco control, as they say.  In chess, the endgame is said to begin when queens begin to disappear, and thus checkmate is increasingly within reach.  In tobacco control, it roughly begins when 1) smoking prevalence drops low enough, 2) the best "cards" of existing tobacco policy measures have already been played enough, and 3) the Overton window has shifted far enough against smoking, that it is now becoming increasingly realistic to openly consider phasing out at least some types of combustible tobacco products (especially cigarettes) at some point in the future.

Various targets for reducing overall smoking prevalence have been floated by various experts, such as a goal of no more than 5% by 2025 or 2030, no more than 2% by 2050 or 2060, and so on.  And beyond simple aggregate numbers, another related goal is to reduce the massive (and often widening) inequalities by race, ethnicity, socioeconomic class, etc. within those numbers in various countries. 

Twenty-One Debunked acknowledges that there are some very good arguments for such a phaseout that even many libertarians can grudgingly concede, given how 1) cigarettes are the only legal product which, when used as directed, kill at least half of those who use it, making them defective by design, 2) most smokers admittedly dislike their habit and want to quit, but often have great difficulty doing so, 3) cigarettes rob people of their autonomy, 4) alternatives currently exist.  And that is before one even delves into the negative "externalities" that these products impose on others and the environment.

That said, there are right ways to further such a goal, and there are wrong ways.

A number of endgame strategies have been discussed, some of which have been implemented recently.  These include, 1) banning the sale of cigarettes, and possibly other combustible tobacco products, in a given jurisdiction completely from some future date onwards, after a reasonably long delay, 2) putting a gradually "sinking lid" on the number of tobacco retail outlet licenses, until the number of licenses drops to zero, 3) phasing down the maximum allowable nicotine content of cigarettes, and possibly other combustible tobacco products, to a non-addictive level, 4) hiking the excise tax by 10% every year, and 5) an age-based (or "generational") strategy that permanently bans the sale of tobacco products to anyone born after a specific year (say, 2000 or 2010), while still allowing it for those born before that year.

It is this last one that Twenty-One Debunked takes the most umbrage at of all.  We denounce this arbitrary discrimination by age for the same reasons that we denounce the Tobacco 21 laws.  We believe it is wrong on principle as it flies directly in the face of any idea of equal protection of the law, by denying individual rights to some group of legal adults relative to others.  And not only that, but it is a truly lousy endgame strategy that drags things out that much longer compared to, say, the first strategy on the aforementioned list (i.e. banning it for everyone).

Twenty-One Debunked prefers the third strategy on the list, namely phasing down the maximum allowable nicotine levels in cigarettes to a non-addictive level, and only for cigarettes and little cigars/cigarillos, and possibly roll-your-own cigarette tobacco.  Leave all other tobacco products alone, and keep vaping products on the market, albeit with the maximum allowable nicotine levels reduced to European or Israeli levels (which is still plenty strong).  We have preferred that strategy since 2013, in fact.  We do NOT prefer the first two strategies, but would still much rather have those than the last.  Even the tax hike strategy (which increasingly robs from the poor and gives to the rich) is head-and-shoulders better than that!

Another thing we would find at least somewhat acceptable would be to limit the types of stores that can sell tobacco products.  For example, they could only allow tobacco to be sold at dedicated tobacco/vape shops, or stores that one must be 18 or older to enter.  That would thus eliminate the most visual temptations for children and teens, and triggers for relapse that former smokers have to face every day, at convenience stores, grocery stores, etc.  Or at the very least, stop selling them at pharmacies.

One should note that commercial, pre-rolled cigarettes, more so than any other existing tobacco product, are by far the very biggest drivers of the tobacco epidemic of the past century, so even if those (plus little cigars) were the only targeted item for a tobacco endgame strategy, any switching to alternatives would not even come close to sustaining such an epidemic for long on the scale that it has been thus far.  All of the other combustibles (medium to large cigars, pipe tobacco, hookah/shisha) and smokeless tobacco (chew, dip, snuff, snus, lozenges, etc.) have always been basically niche products.  So let's not throw out the baby with the bathwater now.

But whatever strategy one follows, we must be sure to allow enough lead time for a just transition and to minimize the creation of black markets, and we must not criminalize possession or consumption of tobacco.  Any endgame strategy worth following must concentrate on the supply side, while also tackling demand by making quitting easier.  Vilification of smokers does not further that goal in the long run.

UPDATE:  The FDA is now moving to join Canada, the UK, and EU in banning menthol cigarettes (and perhaps flavored cigars too).  Twenty-One Debunked is kinda on the fence about that, but at this point we will not oppose it.  The reason why Big Tobacco adds menthol is because it masks the harsh taste of nicotine, making it easier to get hooked and harder to quit, particularly for young people.  And while the much-noted racial overtones and undertones of menthol cigarettes are practically unique to the USA, due to decades of aggressively race-targeted marketing by Big Tobacco, the sheer deadliness and addictiveness of these products makes them a net detriment to the Black community on balance.