Tuesday, April 1, 2025
OK You Win. You Have Convinced Us.
Monday, March 31, 2025
Why Is The 21 Drinking Age So Sacred?
Few laws are as uniquely sacred in the USA today as the 21 drinking age laws. They are essentially a "third rail" of politics, even more so than Social Security. And yet these laws are widely disobeyed by the vast majority of Americans at some point in their lives. So what gives?
It clearly cannot be about saving lives, because speed limits would be even more of a matter of life and death, and yet those are never treated even remotely as sacred as the 21 drinking age. They are openly flouted and scoffed at by most people, and the penalties and enforcement are pretty lax to this day. The erstwhile national 55 speed limit was in fact mercilessly mocked and gradually weakened until it was ultimately jettisoned in the 1990s despite (ultimately quite accurate) warnings of "blood on the highways". And even worse, speed limits on other streets, roads, and especially "stroads" have been raised higher as well, with very deadly consequences, and a fortiori for pedestrians and cyclists (hey, remember them?). Speed kills, even more so than drunk driving these days, and yet, as one commenter noted, we don't have "Mothers Against Fast Driving", we have the Speed Channel instead. Likewise, distracted driving, especially by smartphones, is at an all-time high, and people just cavalierly LOL it off for the most part.
(It's all fun and games, until they crash right into a kid on a bike, who is killed or maimed. Not so funny now, is it?)
And even for drunk driving, the current (generous by international standards) blood alcohol limit of 0.08% for people over 21, let alone lowering it to 0.05% (except in Utah), seems to have far less popular support than the 21 drinking age or zero-tolerance laws for people under 21.
And also, when they cut the federal alcohol taxes in 2018, ostensibly to boost the economy, there were few voices against it, and even those voices were far more muffled than to they would have been if they had had the temerity to (gasp!) even partially repeal the National Minimum Drinking Age Act of 1984. So the drinking age is not even entirely about alcohol per se then, even if there is clearly some neo-prohibitionist impulse involved as well.
Thus, we can conclude that the 21 drinking age is really about power and control, along with an irrational fear of young people. Which of course dovetails with being comparatively lax with the privileged age group that is currently in power, as tyranny is always whimsical. And now the proverbial emperor is naked for all to see.
Saturday, March 29, 2025
Chesterton's Fence Revisited
One very important philosophical principle is that of Chesterton's Fence, by author G.K. Chesterton.
Per Wikipedia:
"Chesterton's fence" is the principle that reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood. The quotation is from Chesterton's 1929 book, The Thing: Why I Am a Catholic, in the chapter, "The Drift from Domesticity":
In the matter of reforming things, as distinct from deforming them, there is one plain and simple principle; a principle which will probably be called a paradox. There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, "I don't see the use of this; let us clear it away." To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: "If you don't see the use of it, I certainly won't let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it."
In other words, before you remove or destroy a fence (or policy), make sure you know why it was put up in the first place. That's just common sense.
(Hey DOGE, are you listening? Seriously!)
Of course, the apocryphal "Five Monkeys Experiment" is a good foil to counterbalance that principle. That is, sometimes various policies really have outlived their usefulness, were rotten from the start, and/or do far more harm than good. And wisdom is to know the difference between the two cases.
(The latter pitfall is sometimes called "status quo bias".)
So where does that leave the 21 drinking age then? Well it seems to be a bit of both, in fact. On the one hand, the reason why they raised the drinking age to 21 in the 1980s was ostensibly to combat drunk driving at times when drunk driving was widely considered normal and socially acceptable, and generally not taken very seriously. At the same time, any other justification (such as junk neuroscience) given for it now is an after-the-fact rationalization, so anything other than drunk driving came be considered a "Five Monkeys" case. Back to the original justification, that has long since passed it's sell-by date for the following reasons:
- Countries that did NOT raise their drinking ages to 21, even car cultures like Canada, Australia, New Zealand, saw similar or greater declines in teen and young adult traffic deaths, both alcohol-related and otherwise, than the USA did during and right after the time that the drinking ages were in flux. They did not diverge in the expected direction, and if anything diverged in the "wrong" direction.
- The 12 states that had been 21 since the 1930s and 1940s, and thus did not change their drinking ages at all since then, also saw similar declines in teen and young adult traffic deaths during that time period.
- Several good and rigorous studies, including, but not limited to, Miron and Tetelbaum (2009), Asch and Levy (1987 and 1990), Dee and Evans (2001), Grant (2011), and others, have either cast major doubt on the idea of the 21 drinking age having a significant net lifesaving effect, or even debunked it entirely.
- It's literally well into the 21st century now. Drunk driving is no longer socially acceptable in the USA, and is taken far more seriously now than it was in the 1970s and early 1980s. America is almost a completely different country now than it was back then.
- Rideshare services like Uber and Lyft exist now as well, and young people are taking longer than ever now to get their driver's licenses.
- We know now that there are far more effective ways of reducing alcohol-related harms of all kinds, such as raising the taxes on alcohol, limiting alcohol outlet density, improving alcohol education, and most importantly of all, seriously cracking down on actual drunk driving, drunk violence, drunk vandalism, and stuff like that. Rather than merely "flatten the curve", doing so can actually CRUSH the curve for good.
So what are we waiting for?
Would A Graduated Drinking Age Be Better? (Part Deux)
Sunday, March 16, 2025
Would A Graduated Drinking Age Be Better?
Friday, March 7, 2025
Prohibition Versus Taxation Revisited
Blast from the past: Rediscovering two studies from the 1990s by Professor Donald S. Kenkel:
PROHIBITION VERSUS TAXATION: RECONSIDERING THE LEGAL DRINKING AGE (1993)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1993.tb00389.x
"The legal drinking age targets a group at a high risk of alcohol-related problems. This paper argues that taxation could achieve the same benefits as the legal drinking age at a substantially lower social cost. Existing empirical research suggests that simultaneously lowering the legal age to 18 and taxing alcohol purchases at between 12 to 86 percent of the current price would achieve the same results as the current legal age. Levying a special teen tax only on young adults would minimize its social costs. Teen tax revenues between $564 million to $4.03 billion measure the net social gain of replacing the current prohibition on young adults' alcohol purchases with a taxation policy."
And the other one from three years later:
NEW ESTIMATES OF THE OPTIMAL TAX ON ALCOHOL (1996)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1996.tb01379.x
"In this paper I use a new data set to estimate the optimal alcohol tax rate. As a benchmark, the empirical results imply that the optimal tax rate is over 100 percent of the net-of-tax price. However, alcohol taxation is a second-best solution to the problems associated with alcohol abuse. I conclude that the optimal alcohol tax rate would be much lower if punishment for drunk driving were more certain and severe. Government provision of information about the health consequences of heavy drinking would also remove part of the efficiency rationale for alcohol taxes."
Twenty-One Debunked does NOT support the idea of different tax rates for different ages, as that idea would likely be impractical and still discriminatory. It is essentially a left-brain dominant idea that mistakes the map for the territory, and almost a full-blown category error. In that vein, Kenkel really begins to coast after being off to a good start otherwise. And, as we see from the second study three years later, the level of the optimal tax is within the range of what would be needed to offset the putative social costs of lowering the drinking age to 18, and vice-versa.
And as we have seen from Miron and Tetelbaum (2009) and Dee and Evans (2001), and many other studies, the supposed benefits of the 21 drinking age are overstated at best, and likely non-existent in the long run. And in fact, Miron and Tetelbaum also found by the way that the beer tax has a larger lifesaving effect than the 21 drinking age.
Putting it all together, even a relatively modest hike in the alcohol taxes would be enough to offset the supposed negative effects of lowering the drinking age to 18, especially if we also make the punishment for DUI more certain and severe (which we certainly support). In fact, the late Mark Kleiman (hardly a libertarian zealot) actually recommended many years ago that we should abolish the drinking age entirely, and raise the alcohol tax to a level that would roughly double the price of alcohol (similar to current Canadian prices). And while the Overton window would strongly preclude something so audacious at this time, he does make a good point regardless.
So what are we waiting for? Lower the drinking age to 18, raise the alcohol taxes, get tougher on actual drunk driving and drunk violence, and let America be America again!
Sunday, February 16, 2025
Why Do Small Alcohol Tax/Price Hikes Have Such Large Effects On Drunk Driving Casualties?
Saturday, February 8, 2025
Sorry, Cannabis Legalization STILL NOT Crazy-Making, Or Deadly For That Matter
Sunday, February 2, 2025
Thomas Jefferson Predicted Exactly Why Minimum Unit Pricing Would Fail
Looks like good old Thomas Jefferson, the third President of the United States and one of America's Founding Fathers, had uncannily predicted long ago why the recent "Minimum Unit Pricing" of alcoholic beverages in Scotland and Wales would end up failing so miserably even on its own terms:
"No nation is drunken where wine is cheap; and none sober where the dearness of wine substitutes ardent [i.e. distilled] spirits as the common beverage. It is, in truth, the only antidote to the bane of whiskey."
And there you have it. Substitute "beer" or "cider" for "wine" and it still makes just as much if not more sense, especially in the UK. That is NOT to say that the price mechanism (via taxation or otherwise) is useless, far from it. All else being equal, we know that higher alcohol prices = fewer alcohol-related problems and deaths, at least to a point. But the Jeffersonian wisdom above DOES add a VERY important nuance, namely that the RELATIVE price of less-concentrated alcoholic beverages (beer, wine, cider) compared with the more-concentrated distilled spirits (hard liquor) is more important than the absolute prices of either.
Consider this: the UK as a whole already had, and still has, fairly high but (until recently) very uneven taxes on alcohol to begin with. Wine and especially cider have long enjoyed lower taxes (and thus lower prices per standard drink) compared with beer and hard liquor there. Thus, the heaviest problem drinkers, especially poorer ones, often went for cheap and strong cider to get the most "bang for the buck". Enter minimum unit pricing, a price floor across the board per standard drink which had a much larger effect on raising the price of cider compared with hard liquor. The unintended consequence? At least some of the heaviest drinkers likely at least partially switched to liquor as a result, and ended up getting drunker than they otherwise would, with predictable negative effects.
That said, in the USA where alcohol taxes are much lower, especially for distilled spirits, such a price floor may very well be a net benefit overall. And even in the UK, changing it to a two-tier price floor where distilled spirits would have a higher minimum price per standard drink than non-distilled beverages may very well too. But as it stands currently in Scotland and Wales? It's generally pretty weak sauce at best as far as public health is considered.
Oh, and don't ever expect MADD to admit this either. They have in the past at least half-heartedly called for higher beer taxes, of course, but remained strangely quiet about liquor taxes. It's almost like someone is greasing their palms, or something. Nah, that's crazy conspiracy talk, right?
Sunday, January 12, 2025
Will There Be Nicotine Limits for Cigarettes?
Lately, there has been some talk of the outgoing Biden administration possibly doing an eleventh-hour Hail Mary, and officially propose a hard limit on nicotine levels in combustible cigarettes. If done properly, this would make cigarettes less addictive or even non-addictive, and would be a major win for public health. A randomized controlled trial of reduced nicotine versus full nicotine cigarettes in 2015 appears to back up that claim quite well.
Twenty-One Debunked is officially on the fence about this idea, cautiously supporting it in principle while also being wary of potential unintended consequences as far as creating a black market for full nicotine cigarettes. If they do it, they would have to phase out the full nicotine cigarettes gradually, and also leave alone non-combustible alternative tobacco/nicotine products (except for capping the nicotine levels in vapes to European levels, which we support). And even loose roll-your-own and pipe tobacco should be spared, as those are not the main drivers of the tobacco smoking epidemic. Only ready-made combustible cigarettes and little cigars should be affected in our view.
Failing that, here is a "Cliffs Notes" style list on how to make cigarettes and other smokeable tobacco products less addictive and appealing WITHOUT banning it outright or nicotine below natural levels:
- First and foremost, BAN ADDITIVES! No non-tobacco ingredients should be added, period.
- Adding extra nicotine deliberately should also be banned as well.
- Require the smoke pH to be 8 or higher to discourage deep inhalation of smoke, as it naturally was prior to the 20th century.
- Phase out the pH-lowering and environmentally unsustainable practice of flue-curing tobacco.
- Phase out cigarette "filters", which don't really filter, and merely provide a false sense of security to smokers, and inherently creates a major toxic waste littering problem to boot.