While it is true that our nation has made progress over the past few decades, such progress has been abysmal compared to that made by Canada, Australia, the UK, and most of Europe. Take a look at the following table:
| Country | MLDA | 1979 Fatalities | 2002 Fatalities | % Change (raw) | % Change (per vehicle) | % Change (per VMT) |
| USA | 21 | 51,093 | 42,815 | -16.2% | -46.2% | -52% |
| UK | 18 | 6,352 | 3,431 | -46.0% | -67.1% | -70% |
| Canada | 18 or 19 | 5,863 | 2,936 | -49.9% | -63.5% | N/A |
| Australia | 18 | 3,508 | 1,715 | -51.1% | -79.1% | N/A |
In other words, if we had kept pace with the other nations listed, there would have been an additional 200,000 lives saved from 1979-2002. If we were to grade these countries, Australia would get an A, the UK and Canada would each get a B, and the USA would get a D.
There are likely several reasons why America is lagging behind, of course. But one of the most notable ways in which the USA differs from the rest is our ludicrously high drinking age of 21, compared to 18 in most other countries. So let's take a look at younger drivers, using data from the latest IRTAD report:
| Country | MLDA | % Change 15-17 (raw) 1980-2009 | % Change 18-20 (raw) 1980-2009 | % Change 21-24 (raw) 1980-2009 | % Change 15-17 (p/c) 1990-2008 | % Change 18-20 (p/c) 1990-2008 | % Change 21-24 (p/c) 1990-2008 |
| USA | 21 | -68% | -59% | -56% | -50% | -34% | -29% |
| UK | 18 | -88% | -72% | -61% | -53% | -50% | -53% |
| Canada | 18 or 19 | N/A | N/A | N/A | -55% | -49% | -50% |
| Australia | 18 | N/A | N/A | N/A | -50% | -59% | -57% |
| New Zealand | 18 | -52% | -63% | -58% | -66% | -68% | -75% |
We see that America lags behind the rest of the countries for younger drivers as well. We added New Zealand to the list because that was a country that not only did not raise the drinking age, but actually lowered it from 20 to 18 in 1999. Unfortunately, the IRTAD report did not give age-specifc data before 1990 for Canada and Australia, nor did they give age-specific data for alcohol involvement for any country. However, the post-1990 data are still useful despite the constant drinking ages, as enforcement of the 21 drinking age did increase during that time in the USA.
When one looks at the report, one can see that since 1990, most of the progress involving the youngest drivers in America occurred after 2005, during a time when gas prices soared. Thus, we now see what the numbers look like when the data are truncated to 1990-2005. We also examine 1998-2008, the most relevant ten-year period to NZ since they lowered their drinking age to 18 in 1999. All rates shown below are per-capita.
| Country | MLDA | % Change 15-17 (p/c) 1990-2005 | % Change 18-20 (p/c) 1990-2005 | % Change 21-24 (p/c) 1990-2005 | % Change 15-17 (p/c) 1998-2008 | % Change 18-20 (p/c) 1998-2008 | % Change 21-24 (p/c) 1998-2008 |
| USA | 21 | -35% | -16% | -18% | -40% | -22% | -13% |
| UK | 18 | -40% | -32% | -35% | 0% | -35% | -35% |
| Canada | 18 or 19 | -43% | -38% | -38% | -31% | -24% | -23% |
| Australia | 18 | -50% | -49% | -39% | -31% | -24% | -22% |
| New Zealand | 18 | -41% | -53% | -72% | -35% | -32% | -19% |
This table appears to confirm what we suspect. Before the massive gas price rise of the late 2000s, (which appears to have stronger effects on younger people for some reason), America lags the other nations even more so. We even lag behind New Zealand of all countries! Due to America's lower gas taxes and prices at baseline, the percent difference in gas prices (twofold from 2004 to 2008) was significantly larger than for the other nations--and Americans are not used to high gas prices ($4.00/gallon is considered "low" in Europe, and "high normal" in Canada). As for NZ, it does not appear that lowering the drinking age led an increase in deaths relative to comparable countries (especially Australia) that kept the drinking age constant, at least not in the long run.
So why did American 15-17 year olds see significantly more progress than their slightly older counterparts since 1990, despite lagging behind 15-17 year olds of several other countries? During the gas price rise, one can easily see why since that age group simply has less money to spend on gas. And while they saw more progress than their older counterparts before the price rise, that is likely due to the increase in graduated driver licensing programs in the USA. New Zealand already had graduated licensing since the late 1980s, while the USA and Canada generally implemented it in the late 1990s. The main difference between the American version is that it generally applies only to drivers under 18, while in the other countries it applies to all novice drivers (or at least all novices under 20 or 25). Also, the American version tends to have tighter restrictions on those to whom it does apply, especially when it comes to passengers. This can lead to fewer deaths among 15-17 year olds simply by encouraging them to "wait it out" until 18, when they can get an unrestricted license despite the fact that they are no better at driving than they were two years prior. And those that do begin driving at 16 or 17 would do so under less realistic conditions. One study actually found a shifting of deaths to 18-19 year olds as a result of California's GDL program that started in 1998--and a net increase in total 16-19 year old fataltities.
But what about alcohol-related traffic fatalties? In a previous post, we have already compared the USA and Canada--see the following graphs of the most relevant time period, courtesy of NHTSA:
| Percent Change from 1982-1997 US: drivers age 16-20 in fatal crashes with positive BAC (FARS) Canada: driver fatalities age 16-19 with positive BAC (TIRF) | Percent Change from 1982-1997 US: percentage of drivers age 16-20 in fatal crashes with positive BAC (FARS) Canada: percentage of driver fatalities age 16-19 with positive BAC (TIRF) |
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Interestingly, the decline in alcohol-related traffic fatalities since 1982 occurred at about the same rate in both countries, with no evidence of divergence in the expected direction despite the fact that Canada did not raise the drinking age to 21. In both countries, drivers under 21 saw some of the largest declines of all compared with other age groups, though all ages saw some decline over the long run. Moreover, progress continued for Canadian teens from 1997-2005, while unfortunately it stalled for their American counterparts during that time, only resuming after gas prices began to skyrocket and the economy began to sag. And yes, gas prices do have an effect on alcohol-related crashes. In 2005-2006, the rate of total 15-24 year old traffic fatalities (per 100,000 people) for the USA was 25.5, and 16.9 in Canada, the latter being 33% lower than the former.
For the number of all-ages "alcohol-related" fatalities, MADD's own statistics show that from 1982-2004, it declined a whopping 62% in Canada, while it only dropped by 36% south of the border. And unlike Canada, much of America's "progress" since 1993 was rather hollow in that the decrease in the percentage of deaths that were "alcohol-related" was primarily a result of an increase in non-alcohol related fatalities since that year. If that's success, we'd hate to see what failure looks like.
Looks like Jack Smith, president of the Canada Safety Council, was right when he said that (relative to Canada), “It’s hard to see how anyone could cite the American experience as a success" when asked whether Canada should raise its drinking age to 21. And we at Twenty-One Debunked certainly agree. We really need to see the forest for the trees.
