The results of the annual Monitoring the Future survey of middle and high school students for 2014 were primarily good news overall. Alcohol and tobacco use both dropped to record 40-year lows, and cannabis use saw the first decrease in years after steadily increasing since 2007. Other drugs, both illicit and prescription, saw either decreases or no significant change in 2014, and most of those remained well below their most recent peaks. Dangerous quasi-legal synthetic "designer drugs", such as "K2" (synthetic cannabis) and "bath salts", have plummeted to the lowest levels since they have first been measured. And there was no substance that saw any significant increases in 2014.
One thing that makes such results remarkable is that 2014 was the first year that cannabis was fully legalized in Colorado and Washington, with a few more states on the way as well. And there is currently zero evidence that any of the prohibitionists' fears have actually materialized. Another remarkable observation is the fact that "extreme binge drinking" (i.e. 10+ drinks in the same occasion at least once in the past two weeks) among high school seniors has finally dropped to the lowest level since it was first recorded in 2005. For example, from 2005-2011, it remained flat at 11%, and from 2011-2014 it had dropped by more than a third to 7%. And lest you erroneously think that the longstanding 21 drinking age (or tougher enforcement thereof) is somehow the cause of that drop, significant decreases in teen drinking have also occurred in other countries where the drinking age is still 18.
But don't expect to hear such good news from the fearmongering mainstream media, of course.
Showing posts with label extreme. Show all posts
Showing posts with label extreme. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Extreme Binge Drinking Revisited
The latest news on extreme binge drinking is in. Apparently, a new study of Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey data from 2005-2011 found that about one in ten high school seniors have engaged in "extreme" drinking, defined as 10 or more drinks in the same occasion at least once in the past two weeks. And about one in twenty have consumed 15+ drinks (!) in the same timeframe. Rates were highest in the Midwest and in rural areas (i.e. so-called "blue-collar America"), and more common among males than females. We have already noted similar findings four years ago.
While clearly only a small minority in engaging in such truly dangerous drinking, it is not a trivial fraction either, and is probably an underestimate. And, most relevant to the drinking age debate, these numbers have not changed significantly since MTF began following them in 2005, despite ever-intensifying enforcement of the 21 drinking age and its ancillary laws. So recent declines in prevalence of 5+ drinks in a row appear to be somewhat misleading, especially since underage drinkers tend to undercount their drinks. Lying (or exaggerating or minimizing) is also fairly common in teen drug and alcohol surveys.
For what it's worth, according to the same surveys about 25% of seniors and 18% of sophomores admit to having had 5+ in a row in the past two weeks, and these numbers are leveling off after a decade-and-a-half-long decline. It seems that fewer teens are drinking, but the more they do when they do. That may explain why in emergency rooms in several cities across the country, admissions related to teen binge drinking increased in recent years in spite of surveys showing that teen drinking and "binge" drinking are both at record lows.
Tracking this highly dangerous behavior is long overdue. We already know that among college freshmen, 20% of males and 8% of females have done extreme drinking (10+ males, 8+ females) in the past two weeks. But that was a one-semester snapshot in the fall of 2003, with no other years for comparison. The rate of "binge" drinking (using the 5/4 definition) in the past two weeks was 41% for males and 34% for females, which does jibe well with known statistics (roughly 40%) that use that definition. But one must wonder if there is even any relationship at all between the rates of drinking, "binge" drinking, and "extreme" drinking. And it is an important distinction to draw, as studies show that a higher cutoff (e.g. 7/6 or 8/6) has better predictive value for the more serious alcohol-related problems than the rather unscientific 5/4 definition.
Indeed, from 1993 to 2005, the percentage of college students who "binge" drank (5/4 definition) in the past two weeks has not changed a whole lot, but the percentage who do so three more times in the past two weeks ("frequent binging") has gone up significantly. And since the aforementioned study found that extreme drinking was strongly correlated with frequent "binging," the former most likely rose as well. Further evidence comes from another study that found that the number of alcohol poisoning deaths (a good indicator of truly dangerous drinking) among college students nearly tripled from 1998 to 2005.
Bottom line: when you criminalize normative drinking, you inevitably normalize truly dangerous drinking. We saw the same thing during Prohibition. And we all pay a heavy price for it.
While clearly only a small minority in engaging in such truly dangerous drinking, it is not a trivial fraction either, and is probably an underestimate. And, most relevant to the drinking age debate, these numbers have not changed significantly since MTF began following them in 2005, despite ever-intensifying enforcement of the 21 drinking age and its ancillary laws. So recent declines in prevalence of 5+ drinks in a row appear to be somewhat misleading, especially since underage drinkers tend to undercount their drinks. Lying (or exaggerating or minimizing) is also fairly common in teen drug and alcohol surveys.
For what it's worth, according to the same surveys about 25% of seniors and 18% of sophomores admit to having had 5+ in a row in the past two weeks, and these numbers are leveling off after a decade-and-a-half-long decline. It seems that fewer teens are drinking, but the more they do when they do. That may explain why in emergency rooms in several cities across the country, admissions related to teen binge drinking increased in recent years in spite of surveys showing that teen drinking and "binge" drinking are both at record lows.
Tracking this highly dangerous behavior is long overdue. We already know that among college freshmen, 20% of males and 8% of females have done extreme drinking (10+ males, 8+ females) in the past two weeks. But that was a one-semester snapshot in the fall of 2003, with no other years for comparison. The rate of "binge" drinking (using the 5/4 definition) in the past two weeks was 41% for males and 34% for females, which does jibe well with known statistics (roughly 40%) that use that definition. But one must wonder if there is even any relationship at all between the rates of drinking, "binge" drinking, and "extreme" drinking. And it is an important distinction to draw, as studies show that a higher cutoff (e.g. 7/6 or 8/6) has better predictive value for the more serious alcohol-related problems than the rather unscientific 5/4 definition.
Indeed, from 1993 to 2005, the percentage of college students who "binge" drank (5/4 definition) in the past two weeks has not changed a whole lot, but the percentage who do so three more times in the past two weeks ("frequent binging") has gone up significantly. And since the aforementioned study found that extreme drinking was strongly correlated with frequent "binging," the former most likely rose as well. Further evidence comes from another study that found that the number of alcohol poisoning deaths (a good indicator of truly dangerous drinking) among college students nearly tripled from 1998 to 2005.
Bottom line: when you criminalize normative drinking, you inevitably normalize truly dangerous drinking. We saw the same thing during Prohibition. And we all pay a heavy price for it.
Monday, December 14, 2009
How Common is Extreme Binge Drinking? Now We Know
We at 21 Debunked have repeatedly voiced disapproval at those who insist on calling 5 drinks a "binge," as well as noting the dearth of longitudinal data concerning the practice of imbibing 10 or more drinks in an evening, sometimes called "extreme" drinking or "extreme binge" drinking. The Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey of middle and high school students has not been gathering data on this truly dangerous activity, so we have been left in the dark about its true prevalence. Until now.
Lloyd Johnston, the overseer of the survey, has recently been asking high school seniors whether they have had 10+ drinks or more in at least one occasion in the past 2 weeks. The most recent data say 11% have done so, and 6% have had 15+ drinks in a row. While clearly a small minority, it is not a trivial fraction either, and is probably an underestimate. And, most relevant to the drinking age debate, these numbers have not changed significantly since Johnston began following them, despite ever-intensifying enforcement. So recent declines in prevalence of 5+ drinks in a row appear to be somewhat misleading, especially since underage drinkers tend to undercount their drinks. Lying (or exaggerating or minimizing) is also fairly common in teen surveys.
For what it's worth, according to the same surveys 25% of seniors and 18% of sophomores admit to having had 5+ in a row in the past two weeks, and these numbers are leveling off after a decade-long decline. It seems that fewer teens are drinking, but the more they do when they do. That may explain why in emergency rooms in several cities across the country, admissions related to teen binge drinking increased in recent years in spite of surveys showing less drinking.
Tracking this dangerous behavior is long overdue. We already know that among college freshmen, 20% of males and 8% of females have done extreme drinking (10+ males, 8+ females) in the past two weeks. But that was a one-semester snapshot in the fall of 2003, with no other years for comparison. The rate of "binge" drinking (using the 5/4 definition) in the past two weeks was 41% for males and 34% for females, which does jibe well with known statistics (roughly 40%) that use that definition. But one must wonder if there is even any relationship at all between the rates of drinking, "binge" drinking, and "extreme" drinking.
Indeed, from 1993 to 2005, the percentage of college students who "binge" drank (5/4 definition) in the past two weeks has not changed a whole lot, but the percentage who do so three more times in the past two weeks ("frequent binging") has gone up significantly. And since the aforementioned study found that extreme drinking was strongly correlated with frequent "binging," the former most likely rose as well. Further evidence comes from another study that found that the number of alcohol poisoning deaths (a good indicator of truly dangerous drinking) among college students nearly tripled from 1998 to 2005.
Bottom line: when you criminalize normative drinking, you inevitably normalize truly dangerous drinking. We saw the same thing during Prohibition. And we all pay a heavy price for it.
Would you drive a car knowing its brakes would fail 11% of the time? Didn't think so.
Lloyd Johnston, the overseer of the survey, has recently been asking high school seniors whether they have had 10+ drinks or more in at least one occasion in the past 2 weeks. The most recent data say 11% have done so, and 6% have had 15+ drinks in a row. While clearly a small minority, it is not a trivial fraction either, and is probably an underestimate. And, most relevant to the drinking age debate, these numbers have not changed significantly since Johnston began following them, despite ever-intensifying enforcement. So recent declines in prevalence of 5+ drinks in a row appear to be somewhat misleading, especially since underage drinkers tend to undercount their drinks. Lying (or exaggerating or minimizing) is also fairly common in teen surveys.
For what it's worth, according to the same surveys 25% of seniors and 18% of sophomores admit to having had 5+ in a row in the past two weeks, and these numbers are leveling off after a decade-long decline. It seems that fewer teens are drinking, but the more they do when they do. That may explain why in emergency rooms in several cities across the country, admissions related to teen binge drinking increased in recent years in spite of surveys showing less drinking.
Tracking this dangerous behavior is long overdue. We already know that among college freshmen, 20% of males and 8% of females have done extreme drinking (10+ males, 8+ females) in the past two weeks. But that was a one-semester snapshot in the fall of 2003, with no other years for comparison. The rate of "binge" drinking (using the 5/4 definition) in the past two weeks was 41% for males and 34% for females, which does jibe well with known statistics (roughly 40%) that use that definition. But one must wonder if there is even any relationship at all between the rates of drinking, "binge" drinking, and "extreme" drinking.
Indeed, from 1993 to 2005, the percentage of college students who "binge" drank (5/4 definition) in the past two weeks has not changed a whole lot, but the percentage who do so three more times in the past two weeks ("frequent binging") has gone up significantly. And since the aforementioned study found that extreme drinking was strongly correlated with frequent "binging," the former most likely rose as well. Further evidence comes from another study that found that the number of alcohol poisoning deaths (a good indicator of truly dangerous drinking) among college students nearly tripled from 1998 to 2005.
Bottom line: when you criminalize normative drinking, you inevitably normalize truly dangerous drinking. We saw the same thing during Prohibition. And we all pay a heavy price for it.
Would you drive a car knowing its brakes would fail 11% of the time? Didn't think so.
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