In Australia, there is quite a furor right now among the chattering classes in regards to a sharp increase in teen tobacco smoking from 2018 to 2023 after over two straight decades of decline. And one of the things people are blaming is.....wait for it....vaping. Because reasons. Or something. But there is one very glaring problem with this theory. In Australia, vape products are technically legal, but ONLY if they do NOT contain any nicotine at all, thus kind of defeating the purpose. That's right, nicotine vape products have never been approved for legal sales in Australia (and probably never will be any time soon), meaning anyone who wants to use them must either smuggle them in from abroad or buy them on the black market. And interestingly enough, vaping itself also appears to be on the rise as well down under. Thus, it truly takes a special kind of stupid to not only perversely create a situation where vaping and smoking both increase at the same time, but to then blame the increase in smoking on vaping.
Even more notable is the fact that in Australia, cigarettes have some of the highest taxes (and thus prices) in the world, plus so many other world-leading "best practices" tobacco control polices as well. This additionally shows that while vice taxes and some other policies may work well to a point, all of these policies inherently have their limits in practice.
Our working theory: it is actually the banning of nicotine vaping, combined with the harmful effects of one of the strictest lockdown and Zero Covid regimes in the world, that ultimately snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the long fight against tobacco smoking, particularly for youth. And we must stress that while nicotine in any form is far from benign and definitely NOT for kids, banning or unduly restricting vaping (which is still significantly safer than the known deadly habit of smoking that it often displaces) is therefore a net public health loser of a policy. And a policy like Australia's that perversely increases "dual use" of both is even that much worse still.
One could even argue that their truly massive cigarette black market created by their insanely high taxes, especially combined with their vaping black market from their nicotine ban, actually increased underage (under 18) use of both products since black market sellers typically don't ask buyers for ID.
Note also how the increase did not begin until 2020 (implicating the lockdowns as a contributing cause), and occurred for 14-17 year olds but interestingly NOT 18-24 year olds (putting the lie to the idea that their age limit of 18, as opposed to 21, was in any way related). Also note that in England, where the age limit is still 18 and vaping is literally promoted by public health authorities, teen smoking continued its long decline through at least 2021. New Zealand, where the age limit was still 18 (until very, very recently), smoking rates among 15-24 year olds nosedived as soon as nicotine vaping was officially legalized in 2020, despite an even stricter lockdown there. Thus it seems to be the combination of 1) black markets, 2) vaping bans, and 3) lockdowns that is the cause of the jump in teen smoking in Australia.
But good luck trying to convince the nanny-state zealots to use even a little bit of common sense!
QED
If a young adult of 18 or anyone older wants to smoke or vape, then her or his decision should be respected. The government should not be a nanny state that is prodded by medical organizations. Medical organizations should not be allowed to make laws. Laws should be made from the perspective of individual liberty and personal responsibility. Anyone who wants to stop smoking or vaping can do so with nicotine patches. There should not be a moral panic about tobacco use by young adults. Simply following the law, which in Australia is correct, is all there is to it.
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