While cheaper gas is generally good for the economy and the average person's wallet, unfortunately it also seems to come at a fairly high cost: more traffic fatalities. The latest data suggest that was the case in 2015. After stubbornly hovering between $3.50 and $4.00/gallon from 2011-2014, gas prices on average plummeted to around $2.00 from the second half of 2014 into 2015, and even dropped below $2.00 in early 2016--a seven-year low. And traffic deaths apparently rose to a seven-year high in 2015, nearly 8% higher than the previous record-low reached in 2014. Additionally, preliminary data for the first half of 2016 in several states also show that traffic deaths are likely to be the same or higher than they were in 2015.
None of this should really come as a surprise. As we have noted in a previous post in 2010, it has been known for quite some time now that there is a significant inverse correlation between gas prices and traffic crashes, including fatal ones. And the link is especially true for younger drivers. Carefully controlled studies have found this to be true, suggesting a true causal relationship. Contrary to popular opinion, the price elasticity of gasoline is not zero,
or even close to zero, and it seems to rise dramatically when prices go
above $3.00/gallon. Longer-term elasticities are about twice as strong,
suggesting the effect builds over time.
The effects on fatalities are not limited to reduced vehicle miles traveled; while that drops too,
even controlling for this we can see a decrease in deaths with higher prices. "Discretionary" driving declines the most when gas prices rise, and most
fatalities occur from this type of driving. Speeding and aggressive driving also
decline in an effort to save fuel and money. Thus, the price elasticity for gasoline demand actually understates the effect on fatalities. And while non-alcohol related crashes may be more affected by changes in gas prices, alcohol-related ones would be affected as well.
By that logic, it seems that one of the best ways we can reduce traffic
fatalities (both alcohol and non-alcohol) would be to raise the gas
tax. Of course, that would make a lot of people mad. But if it saves
even one life, it's worth it, right? Isn't that what groups like MADD
have said about things like the 21 drinking age? Judging by the lack of
enthusiasm about raising the gas tax, it appears that the pro-21 crowd
doesn't practice what they preach. Or maybe it's all about liberty for
"just us," not all.
If we know higher gas prices save lives, not to mention the planet, what are we waiting for?
Friday, August 5, 2016
Saturday, July 30, 2016
The Evidence Is Clear: Taxation Works Better Than Prohibition
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I believe that alcohol taxes should be raised significantly, and the drinking age lowered to 18. The overwhelming weight of available evidence strongly suggests that alcohol taxes are far more effective, cost-effective, and socially efficient in reducing alcohol-related problems than the 21 drinking age can ever be. And in the past few years we have even more evidence to show for it.
I have noted in the past that the landmark Miron and Tetelbaum study of 2009 has not only thoroughly debunked the idea that the 21 drinking age saves lives, but it also had a more subtle finding as well. Namely, it also quietly confirmed the long-accepted finding that raising the beer tax actually does save lives, even if modestly. And ironically, that was found when they tweaked the pro-21 Dee (1999) study that at first seemed to cast doubt on the beer tax--adding Alaska, Hawaii, and DC as well as more years to the model completely reversed Dee's original findings in that regard, as the original model apparently didn't have enough useful variation or statistical power to detect such results when state-specific trends were added to the regression.
Also, Ponicki et al. (2007) found that while there is supposedly a modest lifesaving effect of the 21 drinking age, high enough beer taxes can actually make that effect irrelevant as the two policies apparently act at cross-purposes. When one is increased, the other becomes less relevant as a result, for obvious reasons.
Fast forward to newer studies on the effects of alcohol taxation and pricing. Even pro-21 researcher Alexander Wagenaar appears to be a huge fan of raising alcohol taxes these days. In 2009 and 2010, Wagenaar did two large meta-analyses on the effects of alcohol taxation on drinking as well as alcohol-related mortality and morbidity, respectively. In both, the effects were clear: it is quite effective indeed as a public health measure. When alcohol taxes/prices go up, problems and deaths go down. More recent studies also confirm such results as well. No wonder Mark Kleiman famously said that, "Any sentence about drug policy that doesn't end with "raise alcohol taxes" is an incoherent sentence".
Thus, raising the alcohol taxes, even doubling or tripling them, should be a no-brainer. So why aren't we doing it? Clearly, the alcohol industry opposes any attempt to raise such taxes, and they always threaten a loss of jobs if they pass. But there is really not much if any evidence that such a thing happens, and the industry consistently fails to produce any robust evidence in that regard. As for the idea that alcohol taxes are regressive and hurt poorer folks and "responsible" drinkers, that is also not really true either: the economic burden would fall mostly on heavier drinkers and wealthier folks, while moderate drinkers really wouldn't pay very much. While I do not advocate extremely high taxes like they have in the Scandinavian countries, there is really no good reason not to raise and equalize all alcohol taxes back to at least the 1991 level for distilled spirits, adjust it for alcohol content, and index it for inflation from then on. Microbrewers, on the other hand, should be exempt from any tax hikes.
It is true that Thomas Jefferson said, "No nation is drunken where wine is cheap". But that was then. Nowadays, beer, wine, and even hard liquor have apparently become too cheap for our own good. And far cheaper than back then or even a few decades ago, at least relative to most people's incomes. Yet the social costs of excessive drinking have not gone down much, so there is a problem of increasing "externalities". And unlike most policy measures, raising alcohol taxes would also raise revenue rather than cost it, and there would be no loss of individual rights either. Clearly, it's a win-win-win situation for everyone except the heaviest drinkers and the merchants of death that profit from them (along with funeral directors, of course).
For once, MADD is correct about something: if it saves even one life, it's worth it. I guess even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
I have noted in the past that the landmark Miron and Tetelbaum study of 2009 has not only thoroughly debunked the idea that the 21 drinking age saves lives, but it also had a more subtle finding as well. Namely, it also quietly confirmed the long-accepted finding that raising the beer tax actually does save lives, even if modestly. And ironically, that was found when they tweaked the pro-21 Dee (1999) study that at first seemed to cast doubt on the beer tax--adding Alaska, Hawaii, and DC as well as more years to the model completely reversed Dee's original findings in that regard, as the original model apparently didn't have enough useful variation or statistical power to detect such results when state-specific trends were added to the regression.
Also, Ponicki et al. (2007) found that while there is supposedly a modest lifesaving effect of the 21 drinking age, high enough beer taxes can actually make that effect irrelevant as the two policies apparently act at cross-purposes. When one is increased, the other becomes less relevant as a result, for obvious reasons.
Fast forward to newer studies on the effects of alcohol taxation and pricing. Even pro-21 researcher Alexander Wagenaar appears to be a huge fan of raising alcohol taxes these days. In 2009 and 2010, Wagenaar did two large meta-analyses on the effects of alcohol taxation on drinking as well as alcohol-related mortality and morbidity, respectively. In both, the effects were clear: it is quite effective indeed as a public health measure. When alcohol taxes/prices go up, problems and deaths go down. More recent studies also confirm such results as well. No wonder Mark Kleiman famously said that, "Any sentence about drug policy that doesn't end with "raise alcohol taxes" is an incoherent sentence".
Thus, raising the alcohol taxes, even doubling or tripling them, should be a no-brainer. So why aren't we doing it? Clearly, the alcohol industry opposes any attempt to raise such taxes, and they always threaten a loss of jobs if they pass. But there is really not much if any evidence that such a thing happens, and the industry consistently fails to produce any robust evidence in that regard. As for the idea that alcohol taxes are regressive and hurt poorer folks and "responsible" drinkers, that is also not really true either: the economic burden would fall mostly on heavier drinkers and wealthier folks, while moderate drinkers really wouldn't pay very much. While I do not advocate extremely high taxes like they have in the Scandinavian countries, there is really no good reason not to raise and equalize all alcohol taxes back to at least the 1991 level for distilled spirits, adjust it for alcohol content, and index it for inflation from then on. Microbrewers, on the other hand, should be exempt from any tax hikes.
It is true that Thomas Jefferson said, "No nation is drunken where wine is cheap". But that was then. Nowadays, beer, wine, and even hard liquor have apparently become too cheap for our own good. And far cheaper than back then or even a few decades ago, at least relative to most people's incomes. Yet the social costs of excessive drinking have not gone down much, so there is a problem of increasing "externalities". And unlike most policy measures, raising alcohol taxes would also raise revenue rather than cost it, and there would be no loss of individual rights either. Clearly, it's a win-win-win situation for everyone except the heaviest drinkers and the merchants of death that profit from them (along with funeral directors, of course).
For once, MADD is correct about something: if it saves even one life, it's worth it. I guess even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Violence Has No Place In Our Movement
At a time in history where various social justice movements are gaining rapid momentum, the question of the use of violence inevitably arises. That is, under what circumstances, if any, is violence of any kind acceptable as a protest tactic? While I am not a full-blown pacifist (for example, I believe in the use of physical force in cases of absolute and immediate self-defense, and no "duty to retreat" when one is truly cornered), and I will leave it an open question as to how "self-defense" is defined and whether or not violence has a place other social justice movements, I will say that I do NOT believe that violence as a protest tactic has any place in the movement to lower the drinking age or the broader youth-rights movement in general. Period.
I'm sure some of us, young and old alike, may fantasize at times about using violence against police and judges who enforce the vile and ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age and its ancillary laws that prop it up. And you know what? You are perfectly justified in your fantasies, and your grievances are absolutely NOT trivial. I am the last person who would try to gaslight you in that regard. But when one decides to act out those fantasies in the misguided hopes of redressing those very real grievances, that becomes a serious problem for our movement. Most of us in the movement are non-violent, and any violence committed in the name our movement only gives ammunition to the other side, confirming ageist stereotypes and hardly makes us look like we are mature enough to drink at 18 or any other age for that matter. Thus, adding violent tactics to our movement is far more likely to backfire than it would in other movements.
I am not against the use of non-violent civil disobedience, by the way. But when it comes to aggressive, offensive physical force against law enforcement, judges, politicians, or even MADD for that matter, I will say this to any potential "lone wolves" considering such "propaganda by deed": NOT IN OUR NAME!
As Gandhi would say, "an eye for an eye makes the whole world blind". And as I like to say, when you fight fire with fire, we all get burned in the end. Keep that in mind when protesting or debating.
I'm sure some of us, young and old alike, may fantasize at times about using violence against police and judges who enforce the vile and ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age and its ancillary laws that prop it up. And you know what? You are perfectly justified in your fantasies, and your grievances are absolutely NOT trivial. I am the last person who would try to gaslight you in that regard. But when one decides to act out those fantasies in the misguided hopes of redressing those very real grievances, that becomes a serious problem for our movement. Most of us in the movement are non-violent, and any violence committed in the name our movement only gives ammunition to the other side, confirming ageist stereotypes and hardly makes us look like we are mature enough to drink at 18 or any other age for that matter. Thus, adding violent tactics to our movement is far more likely to backfire than it would in other movements.
I am not against the use of non-violent civil disobedience, by the way. But when it comes to aggressive, offensive physical force against law enforcement, judges, politicians, or even MADD for that matter, I will say this to any potential "lone wolves" considering such "propaganda by deed": NOT IN OUR NAME!
As Gandhi would say, "an eye for an eye makes the whole world blind". And as I like to say, when you fight fire with fire, we all get burned in the end. Keep that in mind when protesting or debating.
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