Former Gainesville (FL) MADD president Debra Oberlin, 48, got busted for drunk driving on Feb 24, blowing a whopping 0.239 BAC, nearly triple the legal limit. Thank God no one was hurt or killed. Hopefully they will throw the book at this ticking time bomb before someone actually is--according to MADD's own statistics, the average drunk driver does so an average of 88 times (!) before being caught.
We at Twenty-One Debunked can't help but feel a sense of schadenfreude about the fact that she was busted for the ultimate act of hypocrisy. We all know what MADD stands for, and 48 is certainly old enough to know better. As many readers already know, Twenty-One Debunked hates drunk driving with a passion and actually agrees with MADD on so many things with very few exceptions, most notably the 21 drinking age and the ancillary laws that serve no purpose other than to prop up this failed policy. If they were to jettison their advocacy for unconstitutional age discrimination (and their neo-temperance mindset) and give their undivided attention to actual drunk driving by all ages instead, we would most likely become members of MADD. That'll be the day. Unfortuantely, they have effectively made the 21 drinking age (and its ancillary laws) the crux of their overall campaign, which ultimately detracts from their original purpose.
Like MADD, we support tougher penalties for drunk drivers, tougher DUI enforcement, lowered BAC limits (albeit with graduated penalties), higher alcohol taxes, better alcohol education and treatment, and more control over alcohol outlet density. No argument there. Unlike MADD, however, we believe in lowering the drinking age to 18, abolishing dram shop and social host laws (at least for those over 18), and giving additional attention to other forms of reckless and negligent driving (cell phones/texting, speeding, etc.) that now kill and maim more people than drunk driving does. Canada (along with several other countries) has proven that raising the drinking age to 21 was completely unnecessary for saving lives, as they have made more progress in reducing fatalities than we have despite not violating the civil rights of 18-20 (or 19-20) year old young adults.
Shame on you, Debra!
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Sunday, February 6, 2011
We Debunk the New Zealand Report
A New Zealand-based "pro-family" (read: socially conservative) group called Family First New Zealand has published a new report on why the drinking age in NZ should be raised to 21. The report shows a picture of a (presumably teenage) female passed out drunk on the cover, no less. However, there are several flaws with this one-sided report, known as Young People and Alcohol, and it is up to folks like us to debunk it.
The so-called new scientific evidence about neurological effects of alcohol that they cite involves either 1) animal studies, 2) studies of truly heavy drinking humans, and/or 3) adolescents who were under 18 or began drinking before the age of 18, having little to no relevance for 18-20 year olds. In fact, we have known for a long time that alcohol is neurotoxic at high doses, and heavy drinking at any age is harmful--no surprise there. And the few studies of fairly low-level alcohol use in adolescent humans generally had small sample sizes as well as small "effect sizes" with limited or unknown practical significance, and most such studies were cross-sectional rather than longitudinal. Nor have the apparent adverse effects on the brain been shown yet to be irreversible. Reporting bias can also skew the results, such as when heavy drinkers underreport how much they drink. It is also worth noting that not a single neuroscientific study they cited that actually compared those who began drinking at 18 versus those who began at 21, and as well as the fact that no rodent studies would have the power to distinguish between this age difference. And the single nonhuman primate (i.e. monkey) study they cited involved chronic heavy drinking during adolescence, not moderate drinking.
Other parts of the report were purely speculative and theoretical, and/or were based on old research that we at Twenty-One Debunked have already done a rather good job of, well, debunking. Or the effects discussed were true for all ages, not just those under 21. Ironically, one of the studies they cited was an Australian twin study that found that the risk of later alcohol dependence, while inversely related to age at first drink, dropped dramatically after age 15 and leveled off from 18 onward. But what can we really expect from a report whose primary author, a self-described "enlightened Puritan American", also believes that television causes half of all violent crime in the USA, and that Facebook somehow causes cancer?
Comparisons between the USA (drinking age of 21) and Canada (drinking age of 18 or 19 depending on the province) also render the authors' claims highly questionable. In international standardized tests, Canadian 12th graders beat their American counterparts despite the former having similar or lower scores in 4th grade. In fact, nearly all the countries that beat us set the drinking age at 18 or even lower! The alcoholism rates in both the USA and Canada are also roughly equivalent, and the adult per capita alcohol consumption rate is actually slightly lower in Canada. Alcohol-related death rates, both in terms of liver cirrhosis as well as "alcohol use disorder", are also lower in Canada according to the World Health Organization, as are traffic fatalities despite the country's somewhat more rural nature. In fact, Canadians live on average three years longer than Americans. And the rates of violent crimes, especially the most serious ones like homicide, tend to be significantly lower in Canada as well, for both teens and adults.
Another serious flaw was that the authors assumed that the brain is fully developed by age 25, and implicitly much more so than at age 18. While we concede that 21 is slightly closer to the actual age than 18, one would still be off by about two or three--wait for it--decades. That's right--at least some parts of the brain (e.g. the corpus callosum and even the prefrontal cortex) continue to develop well into the 40s, and myelination (white matter growth) can continue to about 40 years of age. Which partly explains why a 50 year old typically has a bit more difficulty thinking in new ways than a 20 year old, with the trade-off of (hopefully) somewhat better impulse control. In fact, certain types of cognitive ability seem to peak as late as 53, while other types peak earlier, after which they decline. And new research shows that even the middle aged brain is vulnerable to the long-term effects of excessive drinking. As we have repeatedly said, 21 is an arbitrary drinking age in light of both science and ethics, and it has no place in a free society where 18-20 year olds are considered legal adults for essentially all other purposes.
The report's outright denial of the "forbidden fruit effect" of the 21 drinking age is even more astounding. It ignores, for example, the fairly extensive research of college students by Dr. Ruth Engs and replicated by others that demonstrates that this phenomenon is real, at least for that demographic group. Which is precisely what happened during Prohibition as well. It's the Law of Eristic Escalation in action--impostion of order leads to escalation of chaos. And it's no wonder that Big Booze, who routinely and vigorously fights any proposed alcohol tax hike, advertising restriction, or even some DUI laws, did not put up much of a fight when the drinking age was raised in the USA--they knew that (except for bars) they'd still have more than enough customers and could conveniently avoid having to confront America's notorious drinking problem among adults over 21.
While the report really does not make a strong case for a legal drinking age of 21, and many of the claims they make are inconclusive at best, we must not ignore any sound science when it is available. We at Twenty-One Debunked feel that the best take home messages of this report are that 1) excessive drinking should be avoided at any age, and 2) that perhaps it is prudent for teens to delay the onset of drinking (or at least doing so regularly) to age 18 or older, and especially avoid drinking before age 15. While we do not encourage alcohol use at any age, or the breaking of any existing laws, we disagree with the central thrust (about the legal drinking age) made by the authors of this biased report.
To the Kiwis reading this, take it from us Yanks: the 21 drinking age does NOT work. If you think it will make your nation's rather notorious drinking problem magically go away, think again. The problem affects all ages, and scapegoating young people for adult problems is the refuge of the coward.
The so-called new scientific evidence about neurological effects of alcohol that they cite involves either 1) animal studies, 2) studies of truly heavy drinking humans, and/or 3) adolescents who were under 18 or began drinking before the age of 18, having little to no relevance for 18-20 year olds. In fact, we have known for a long time that alcohol is neurotoxic at high doses, and heavy drinking at any age is harmful--no surprise there. And the few studies of fairly low-level alcohol use in adolescent humans generally had small sample sizes as well as small "effect sizes" with limited or unknown practical significance, and most such studies were cross-sectional rather than longitudinal. Nor have the apparent adverse effects on the brain been shown yet to be irreversible. Reporting bias can also skew the results, such as when heavy drinkers underreport how much they drink. It is also worth noting that not a single neuroscientific study they cited that actually compared those who began drinking at 18 versus those who began at 21, and as well as the fact that no rodent studies would have the power to distinguish between this age difference. And the single nonhuman primate (i.e. monkey) study they cited involved chronic heavy drinking during adolescence, not moderate drinking.
Other parts of the report were purely speculative and theoretical, and/or were based on old research that we at Twenty-One Debunked have already done a rather good job of, well, debunking. Or the effects discussed were true for all ages, not just those under 21. Ironically, one of the studies they cited was an Australian twin study that found that the risk of later alcohol dependence, while inversely related to age at first drink, dropped dramatically after age 15 and leveled off from 18 onward. But what can we really expect from a report whose primary author, a self-described "enlightened Puritan American", also believes that television causes half of all violent crime in the USA, and that Facebook somehow causes cancer?
Comparisons between the USA (drinking age of 21) and Canada (drinking age of 18 or 19 depending on the province) also render the authors' claims highly questionable. In international standardized tests, Canadian 12th graders beat their American counterparts despite the former having similar or lower scores in 4th grade. In fact, nearly all the countries that beat us set the drinking age at 18 or even lower! The alcoholism rates in both the USA and Canada are also roughly equivalent, and the adult per capita alcohol consumption rate is actually slightly lower in Canada. Alcohol-related death rates, both in terms of liver cirrhosis as well as "alcohol use disorder", are also lower in Canada according to the World Health Organization, as are traffic fatalities despite the country's somewhat more rural nature. In fact, Canadians live on average three years longer than Americans. And the rates of violent crimes, especially the most serious ones like homicide, tend to be significantly lower in Canada as well, for both teens and adults.
Another serious flaw was that the authors assumed that the brain is fully developed by age 25, and implicitly much more so than at age 18. While we concede that 21 is slightly closer to the actual age than 18, one would still be off by about two or three--wait for it--decades. That's right--at least some parts of the brain (e.g. the corpus callosum and even the prefrontal cortex) continue to develop well into the 40s, and myelination (white matter growth) can continue to about 40 years of age. Which partly explains why a 50 year old typically has a bit more difficulty thinking in new ways than a 20 year old, with the trade-off of (hopefully) somewhat better impulse control. In fact, certain types of cognitive ability seem to peak as late as 53, while other types peak earlier, after which they decline. And new research shows that even the middle aged brain is vulnerable to the long-term effects of excessive drinking. As we have repeatedly said, 21 is an arbitrary drinking age in light of both science and ethics, and it has no place in a free society where 18-20 year olds are considered legal adults for essentially all other purposes.
The report's outright denial of the "forbidden fruit effect" of the 21 drinking age is even more astounding. It ignores, for example, the fairly extensive research of college students by Dr. Ruth Engs and replicated by others that demonstrates that this phenomenon is real, at least for that demographic group. Which is precisely what happened during Prohibition as well. It's the Law of Eristic Escalation in action--impostion of order leads to escalation of chaos. And it's no wonder that Big Booze, who routinely and vigorously fights any proposed alcohol tax hike, advertising restriction, or even some DUI laws, did not put up much of a fight when the drinking age was raised in the USA--they knew that (except for bars) they'd still have more than enough customers and could conveniently avoid having to confront America's notorious drinking problem among adults over 21.
While the report really does not make a strong case for a legal drinking age of 21, and many of the claims they make are inconclusive at best, we must not ignore any sound science when it is available. We at Twenty-One Debunked feel that the best take home messages of this report are that 1) excessive drinking should be avoided at any age, and 2) that perhaps it is prudent for teens to delay the onset of drinking (or at least doing so regularly) to age 18 or older, and especially avoid drinking before age 15. While we do not encourage alcohol use at any age, or the breaking of any existing laws, we disagree with the central thrust (about the legal drinking age) made by the authors of this biased report.
To the Kiwis reading this, take it from us Yanks: the 21 drinking age does NOT work. If you think it will make your nation's rather notorious drinking problem magically go away, think again. The problem affects all ages, and scapegoating young people for adult problems is the refuge of the coward.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
More Evidence that 21 Is an Arbitrary Number
Only in the nanny-state we call the United States of America would anyone assume that 1) there is absolutely no safe level of alcohol for an 18-20 year old, and 2) that as soon one turns 21, they are magically able to safely consume as much booze as they please, as long as they don't drive (which they never will, because they are far too mature of course). Absurd? You bet. But our nation's alcohol policy unfortunately presumes exactly these things. And we are guaranteed to remain unable to solve the American drinking problem until we confront both of these baseless and paralyzing assertions.
The first assertion falls apart when one considers that there is a safe level for just about everything, even (gasp!) radiation. And even water can be toxic (even deadly) at a high enough dose. It's the dose that makes the poison. While it is true that children may not be able to handle even small amounts of a substance that adults can, remember that for essentially all medications, 18 year olds (who are not "children," by the way) are considered developed enough to handle an "adult dose." In fact, people 18-20 years old are even considered old enough to legally put a known neurotoxin (nicotine) into their bodies! And countries that allow 18 year olds to drink legally (such as Canada and all of Europe but Iceland) have somehow not become nations of brain-damaged alcoholic felons. While we at Twenty-One Debunked do not encourage alcohol consumption at any age, or the breaking of any existing law, we clearly take exception to the "no safe level" claim as it concerns 18-20 year olds.
The second assertion simply defies logic and common sense, as well as established scientific facts. Excessive alcohol consumption is dangerous at any age, even among middle-agers. Amid all the sensational scare tactics about alcohol-related brain damage in people under 21, a recent study found that "binge drinking" in middle-aged adults may increase the risk of later dementia. While we at Twenty-One Debunked dispute the overly broad definition of "binge drinking" that the study used (hence the scare quotes), there had to have been some real binge drinkers among them, especially since the study was done in Finland (a Nordic country with a notorious drinking problem). Interestingly, teetotallers were also at increased risk of later dementia, echoing well-known findings about the relationship between alcohol and cardiovascular disease. In a nutshell, moderation appears to be the key.
The first assertion falls apart when one considers that there is a safe level for just about everything, even (gasp!) radiation. And even water can be toxic (even deadly) at a high enough dose. It's the dose that makes the poison. While it is true that children may not be able to handle even small amounts of a substance that adults can, remember that for essentially all medications, 18 year olds (who are not "children," by the way) are considered developed enough to handle an "adult dose." In fact, people 18-20 years old are even considered old enough to legally put a known neurotoxin (nicotine) into their bodies! And countries that allow 18 year olds to drink legally (such as Canada and all of Europe but Iceland) have somehow not become nations of brain-damaged alcoholic felons. While we at Twenty-One Debunked do not encourage alcohol consumption at any age, or the breaking of any existing law, we clearly take exception to the "no safe level" claim as it concerns 18-20 year olds.
The second assertion simply defies logic and common sense, as well as established scientific facts. Excessive alcohol consumption is dangerous at any age, even among middle-agers. Amid all the sensational scare tactics about alcohol-related brain damage in people under 21, a recent study found that "binge drinking" in middle-aged adults may increase the risk of later dementia. While we at Twenty-One Debunked dispute the overly broad definition of "binge drinking" that the study used (hence the scare quotes), there had to have been some real binge drinkers among them, especially since the study was done in Finland (a Nordic country with a notorious drinking problem). Interestingly, teetotallers were also at increased risk of later dementia, echoing well-known findings about the relationship between alcohol and cardiovascular disease. In a nutshell, moderation appears to be the key.
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Latest Study Wields "Occam's Butterknife"
More educated readers of this blog are probably familiar with Occam's Razor--the observation that a relatively simple explanation is more likely to be correct than a more complicated one. Some folks have satirically come up with the term Occam's Butterknife, which is the erroneous belief that a more complicated explanation beats a simple one. A case in point is the latest study on how lowering the drinking age in the USA might affect college binge drinking.
The study uses a mathematical model to suggest that lowering the drinking age would not reduce binge drinking. However, there are significant problems with the study and its conclusion:
We at Twenty-One Debunked also find it rather funny that the authors of the study said that lowering the drinking age to 18 would be a "radical social experiment," when in fact, the current drinking age of 21 is the real radical social experiment, both internationally and in terms of our nation's own history. And a failed one nonetheless.
The study uses a mathematical model to suggest that lowering the drinking age would not reduce binge drinking. However, there are significant problems with the study and its conclusion:
- The study is purely theoretical, not empirical.
- The only empirical data considered is current self-reported survey data where the drinking age is 21, which may be biased, and levels of enforcement in various colleges.
- The definition of "heavy episodic drinking" is questionable in the absence of context.
- The study modeled a change in the drinking age to 19, not 18.
- The study only looked at two variables--"misperception" (social norms) and "wetness" (availability/enforcement).
- Most campuses are actually very "wet" in practice.
- Variables such as the dangerous effects of forcing alcohol underground are not considered.
- Consequences of drinking were not considered.
We at Twenty-One Debunked also find it rather funny that the authors of the study said that lowering the drinking age to 18 would be a "radical social experiment," when in fact, the current drinking age of 21 is the real radical social experiment, both internationally and in terms of our nation's own history. And a failed one nonetheless.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
New Holiday: Drink Nothing Day
You have probably heard of Buy Nothing Day. Celebrated on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving and the biggest shopping day of the year, this self-explanatory holiday is meant to be a protest against consumerism. But perhaps you didn't know that the biggest drinking day of the year is the day before Thanksgiving. That's right, it's not New Year's Eve, but the day before Thanksgiving.
Thus, we at Twenty-One Debunked have decided to create our own protest holiday, Drink Nothing Day. It is designed as a way for people 21 and over to show solidarity with those under 21 by not drinking any alcohol that day. To observe this holiday, which can only logically be done by folks over 21, one must not drink any form of alcohol at all during the entire 24 hours of that date, as well as the following day until sitting down for Thanksgiving dinner. Then, one may drink, but one must give thanks that prohibition no longer applies to him or her. Other things include wearing two black armbands: one to symbolize those soldiers who died before being able to drink legally in the very country they served, and another to symbolize those under 21 who were killed by a drunk driver over 21.
We will observe this holiday this year, and every year thereafter until the drinking age is lowered to 18 in all 50 states. After that, we should rename the holiday "Novemberfest" or something like that.
Thus, we at Twenty-One Debunked have decided to create our own protest holiday, Drink Nothing Day. It is designed as a way for people 21 and over to show solidarity with those under 21 by not drinking any alcohol that day. To observe this holiday, which can only logically be done by folks over 21, one must not drink any form of alcohol at all during the entire 24 hours of that date, as well as the following day until sitting down for Thanksgiving dinner. Then, one may drink, but one must give thanks that prohibition no longer applies to him or her. Other things include wearing two black armbands: one to symbolize those soldiers who died before being able to drink legally in the very country they served, and another to symbolize those under 21 who were killed by a drunk driver over 21.
We will observe this holiday this year, and every year thereafter until the drinking age is lowered to 18 in all 50 states. After that, we should rename the holiday "Novemberfest" or something like that.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Several Military Leaders Support Lowering Drinking Age on Bases
It seems like we may have finally reached daybreak on the drinking age issue. Though many are hesitant to talk about it, several military leaders are endorsing proposal that would allow 18-20 year old servicemembers to drink beer and wine on base. This would affect all military bases, both foreign and domestic. Currently, most domestic bases set the age at 21 due to a federal law that requires all domestic bases to have the same drinking age as the state the base is in, except for those very close to the Canadian and Mexican borders, who set it at 18 if they choose to. Of course, many 18-20 year old servicemembers still drink illegally anyway like civilians do, usually off-base which creates more dangerous situations. Thus, lowering the drinking age on base would likely be safer than the current situation. This idea certainly deserves a 21-gun salute.
Though this is quite a limited relaxation of the 21 drinking age, the movement to lower the drinking age to 18 across the board has to start somewhere, and we at Twenty-One Debunked fully endorse this idea. If you are old enough to go to war, you are old enough to go to the bar. 'Nuff said.
Though this is quite a limited relaxation of the 21 drinking age, the movement to lower the drinking age to 18 across the board has to start somewhere, and we at Twenty-One Debunked fully endorse this idea. If you are old enough to go to war, you are old enough to go to the bar. 'Nuff said.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Do Drinkers Really Outlive Teetotallers?
This has been a controversy for decades, with most studies saying "yes", at least for moderate drinkers. Such a relationship is thought to be primarily due to reductions in cardiovascular disease. However, methodological problems such as confounders and the "sick quitter" effect (not to mention the wrath of the neoprohibitionists) have hampered the ability to draw any firm conclusions until now.
A recent study found that, among 55-65 year olds at least, moderate drinkers lived the longest, followed by light drinkers, followed by heavy drinkers, followed by abstainers. You read that right--for some reason, even heavy drinkers outlived teetotallers! This was true even after controlling for numerous traditional and non-traditional confounders, including smoking, obesity, sociodemographic factors, former problem drinking status, and health problems at baseline. While controlling for these attenuated the relationship somewhat, it still remained strong, confirming previous studies that also found a U-shaped or J-shaped curve for mortality. It appears that the ancient Greeks were right after all.
But before you go out and buy a bottle of Jack to celebrate, remember that there are several caveats to these findings. First of all, the study only looked at 55-65 year olds, so attempting to generalize these findings to younger (or older) age groups can be problematic. No health benefits from alcohol have ever been conclusively proven for people under 40 (though one study suggests that there might be some), and many (but certainly not all) experts believe that the well-known risks (dependency, injuries, liver damage, etc.) outweigh any theoretical benefits that may occur from drinking before that age, especially for heavy drinking. People over 65 would likely show significant cardiovascular benefits from light drinking, but this age group can run the risk of falls and other injuries from drinking as well. Also, there are many folks (of all ages, and we all know them) who really should avoid the bottle like the plague. The fact that the study included only people over 55 means that it inherently excluded many severe alcoholics and/or drunk drivers who would most likely have died before reaching that age, and thus reduced the number of life years in the population. Finally, the study failed to distinguish between different patterns of drinking--you should realize that there is a huge difference between having two drinks each night of the week (Continental-style) versus having all 14 drinks on a single night (British-style). The latter is very dangerous indeed, don't do it!
While this study is not directly relevant to the drinking age issue, we feel that studies like this are important to show that alcohol is not an unmitigated evil like MADD and their ilk claim it to be. Booze does indeed have a dark side that we all need to be aware of, but there are good things about it as well.
We at Twenty-One Debunked present this for informational purposes only and in no way intend this to be an encouragement for anyone to drink. We are not a "pro-alcohol" organization, but rather we are pro-liberty and anti-tyranny. But if you do choose to drink, remember that moderation is the key, and of course never drink and drive.
UPDATE: Take a look at this review in the British Medical Journal on the apparent inverse relationship between light to moderate drinking and cardiovascular disease.
A recent study found that, among 55-65 year olds at least, moderate drinkers lived the longest, followed by light drinkers, followed by heavy drinkers, followed by abstainers. You read that right--for some reason, even heavy drinkers outlived teetotallers! This was true even after controlling for numerous traditional and non-traditional confounders, including smoking, obesity, sociodemographic factors, former problem drinking status, and health problems at baseline. While controlling for these attenuated the relationship somewhat, it still remained strong, confirming previous studies that also found a U-shaped or J-shaped curve for mortality. It appears that the ancient Greeks were right after all.
But before you go out and buy a bottle of Jack to celebrate, remember that there are several caveats to these findings. First of all, the study only looked at 55-65 year olds, so attempting to generalize these findings to younger (or older) age groups can be problematic. No health benefits from alcohol have ever been conclusively proven for people under 40 (though one study suggests that there might be some), and many (but certainly not all) experts believe that the well-known risks (dependency, injuries, liver damage, etc.) outweigh any theoretical benefits that may occur from drinking before that age, especially for heavy drinking. People over 65 would likely show significant cardiovascular benefits from light drinking, but this age group can run the risk of falls and other injuries from drinking as well. Also, there are many folks (of all ages, and we all know them) who really should avoid the bottle like the plague. The fact that the study included only people over 55 means that it inherently excluded many severe alcoholics and/or drunk drivers who would most likely have died before reaching that age, and thus reduced the number of life years in the population. Finally, the study failed to distinguish between different patterns of drinking--you should realize that there is a huge difference between having two drinks each night of the week (Continental-style) versus having all 14 drinks on a single night (British-style). The latter is very dangerous indeed, don't do it!
While this study is not directly relevant to the drinking age issue, we feel that studies like this are important to show that alcohol is not an unmitigated evil like MADD and their ilk claim it to be. Booze does indeed have a dark side that we all need to be aware of, but there are good things about it as well.
We at Twenty-One Debunked present this for informational purposes only and in no way intend this to be an encouragement for anyone to drink. We are not a "pro-alcohol" organization, but rather we are pro-liberty and anti-tyranny. But if you do choose to drink, remember that moderation is the key, and of course never drink and drive.
UPDATE: Take a look at this review in the British Medical Journal on the apparent inverse relationship between light to moderate drinking and cardiovascular disease.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
More About Guam
As you already know, much to our chagrin Guam was in the news for hastily raising the drinking age to 21 in July 2010. That makes them the first part of the USA to change the drinking age in over two decades. They were in the news again recently in August. The first is that they will actually get tougher on DUI by requiring a mandatory overnight jail stay and will prosecute cases within 48 hours, instead of the former policy of "catch and release" that made it such a joke before. (This we certainly applaud, by the way.) The second was the fact that the arrest rate for DUI had been skyrocketing since 2007, especially for younger drivers. Aside from being the major impetus for the latest change in DUI criminal procedure, this fact was also used by some to retrospectively justify the drinking age hike to 21.
But the latter claim does not stand up to closer scrutiny. In fact, it falls flat on its face. The stats from the Guam Police Department show the following numbers, in a population of about 175,000 residents:
Clearly arrests have risen for all ages, and doubled for those under 21 in two years, though the share of arrests under 21 has essentially plateaued since 2008, after jumping from 2007 to 2008. Back in 2005, it was only 6%. However, arrest rates can be quite deceiving, as the table of fatalities below so clearly shows:
Here we see a very different picture indeed. It does not appear that alcohol-related fatalities have been rising for any age group. Quite the opposite in fact, a whopping 64% decrease overall, and thus the reason for rising arrests is most likely greater enforcement and targeting of younger drivers, as opposed to more drunk driving. You read right that in 2008 and 2010, there have actually been zero traffic fatalites of those under 21. The 2010 data only include the first half of the year (up to June 30), during which the drinking age was still 18, so one can thus project 20 total deaths and 4 total alcohol-related deaths for the whole year, and either zero or one death under 21, had the status quo remained.
As for the percentage under 21, since alcohol involvement is not given for the under 21 data, we assumed the worst (that all of them involved booze) and calculated the number of under-21 deaths as a percentage of total alcohol-related deaths. This gives 7.4%, but if we assume that half of the under-21 deaths involve booze (a reasonable estimate given the all-ages data), we get a mere 3.7%. Thus, drivers under 21 are overrepresented in arrests, but underrepresented in fatalities. Put another way, even if all under-21 drinking was to somehow magically disappear, over 96% of the deaths would most likely still occur.
How does this compare with the rest of the nation, where the drinking age has been 21 since 1988? Well, research shows that in 2008, drivers under 21 accounted for 12% of total fatalities and 13% of alcohol-impaired fatalities. Clearly worse than Guam by any measure, but remember that 21-24 year olds are the worst of all in terms of overrepresentation in drunk driving deaths, a fact that is true in almost every developed nation in the world regardless of drinking age. Thus, these data are hardly a ringing endorsement for a 21 drinking age.
But the latter claim does not stand up to closer scrutiny. In fact, it falls flat on its face. The stats from the Guam Police Department show the following numbers, in a population of about 175,000 residents:
| Year | Total DUI Arrests | Under 21 | % Under 21 |
| 2007 | 790 | 58 | 7.3% |
| 2008 | 677 | 70 | 10.3% |
| 2009 | 1146 | 116 | 10.1% |
| 2010 (first half) | 382 | 41 | 10.7% |
Clearly arrests have risen for all ages, and doubled for those under 21 in two years, though the share of arrests under 21 has essentially plateaued since 2008, after jumping from 2007 to 2008. Back in 2005, it was only 6%. However, arrest rates can be quite deceiving, as the table of fatalities below so clearly shows:
| Year | Total Fatalities | Alcohol Related | Under 21 | % Under 21 |
| 2007 | 24 | 11 | 1 | 9% |
| 2008 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| 2009 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 11% |
| 2010 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Avg. | 15.7 | 7.7 | 0.57 | 7.4% (3.7%) |
Here we see a very different picture indeed. It does not appear that alcohol-related fatalities have been rising for any age group. Quite the opposite in fact, a whopping 64% decrease overall, and thus the reason for rising arrests is most likely greater enforcement and targeting of younger drivers, as opposed to more drunk driving. You read right that in 2008 and 2010, there have actually been zero traffic fatalites of those under 21. The 2010 data only include the first half of the year (up to June 30), during which the drinking age was still 18, so one can thus project 20 total deaths and 4 total alcohol-related deaths for the whole year, and either zero or one death under 21, had the status quo remained.
As for the percentage under 21, since alcohol involvement is not given for the under 21 data, we assumed the worst (that all of them involved booze) and calculated the number of under-21 deaths as a percentage of total alcohol-related deaths. This gives 7.4%, but if we assume that half of the under-21 deaths involve booze (a reasonable estimate given the all-ages data), we get a mere 3.7%. Thus, drivers under 21 are overrepresented in arrests, but underrepresented in fatalities. Put another way, even if all under-21 drinking was to somehow magically disappear, over 96% of the deaths would most likely still occur.
How does this compare with the rest of the nation, where the drinking age has been 21 since 1988? Well, research shows that in 2008, drivers under 21 accounted for 12% of total fatalities and 13% of alcohol-impaired fatalities. Clearly worse than Guam by any measure, but remember that 21-24 year olds are the worst of all in terms of overrepresentation in drunk driving deaths, a fact that is true in almost every developed nation in the world regardless of drinking age. Thus, these data are hardly a ringing endorsement for a 21 drinking age.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
California Passes Social Host Law
Much to the chagrin of 21 Debunked and all those who love liberty and oppose the 21 drinking age, today California joined the majority of states and passed a social host liability law. This means that if you furnish alcohol to someone under 21 and they happen to get killed or injured, you can be sued, and there appear to be no limits on how much you can be sued for.
We have already discussed in previous posts why we oppose such laws. First of all, it is just another attempt to prop up the greatest alcohol policy failure since Prohibition, the 21 drinking age. Secondly, 18-20 year olds are legal adults in all other ways, and should be responsible for their own actions, drunk or not. Third, such laws have not been proven to save lives, and would probably just force alcohol even further underground, leaving party hosting to only the bold and reckless. Finally, in a country without meaningful tort reform, it will enrich greedy trial lawyers while causing many families to possibly even lose their homes in lawsuits, as social host awards are typically in the millions of dollars. We can just see them salivating like Pavlov's dog at the prospect.
We at 21 Debunked feel that suing the host (who is at most only peripherally involved, by definition) because the drunk driver does not have deep enough pockets is really quite low to say the least. Parasitic even, especially when the dollar amounts are ludicrously high as they usually are. The worst of all are those stupid drunk drivers who sue the host for their own injuries, a group for whom we have no sympathy. Thus, we do not support social host laws of any kind. But we do think that drunk drivers of any age who kill or seriously injure others should be sued for everything they have and, if that is still not enough to cover the damages, be forced to work off their debt in prison the rest of their lives.
Interestingly, social host laws (as well as dram shop laws, which are the same thing only applied to bars/restaurants instead) appear to exist in only two countries, the USA and Canada. We Americans are well-known for our ethic of hyper-individualism, as opposed to a more communitarian or "brother's keeper" ethic found in most other countries, including many in Europe. Thus, America is the last place one would expect to find such laws, but for some reason it is almost the only place they are found. Perhaps the fact that our society is so litigious compared to the rest of the world, and increasingly so, is at least part of the reason. Or maybe it is for the same asinine reasons that the drinking age is arbitrarily set at 21, a full three years higher than the age of majority. Whatever the reason, such laws are un-American, obsolete, and incompatible with the values upon which our nation was founded, and should thus be stricken from the books at once.
We have already discussed in previous posts why we oppose such laws. First of all, it is just another attempt to prop up the greatest alcohol policy failure since Prohibition, the 21 drinking age. Secondly, 18-20 year olds are legal adults in all other ways, and should be responsible for their own actions, drunk or not. Third, such laws have not been proven to save lives, and would probably just force alcohol even further underground, leaving party hosting to only the bold and reckless. Finally, in a country without meaningful tort reform, it will enrich greedy trial lawyers while causing many families to possibly even lose their homes in lawsuits, as social host awards are typically in the millions of dollars. We can just see them salivating like Pavlov's dog at the prospect.
We at 21 Debunked feel that suing the host (who is at most only peripherally involved, by definition) because the drunk driver does not have deep enough pockets is really quite low to say the least. Parasitic even, especially when the dollar amounts are ludicrously high as they usually are. The worst of all are those stupid drunk drivers who sue the host for their own injuries, a group for whom we have no sympathy. Thus, we do not support social host laws of any kind. But we do think that drunk drivers of any age who kill or seriously injure others should be sued for everything they have and, if that is still not enough to cover the damages, be forced to work off their debt in prison the rest of their lives.
Interestingly, social host laws (as well as dram shop laws, which are the same thing only applied to bars/restaurants instead) appear to exist in only two countries, the USA and Canada. We Americans are well-known for our ethic of hyper-individualism, as opposed to a more communitarian or "brother's keeper" ethic found in most other countries, including many in Europe. Thus, America is the last place one would expect to find such laws, but for some reason it is almost the only place they are found. Perhaps the fact that our society is so litigious compared to the rest of the world, and increasingly so, is at least part of the reason. Or maybe it is for the same asinine reasons that the drinking age is arbitrarily set at 21, a full three years higher than the age of majority. Whatever the reason, such laws are un-American, obsolete, and incompatible with the values upon which our nation was founded, and should thus be stricken from the books at once.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Zero Tolerance Laws in Canada
On August 1, 2010, Ontario will join a few other Canadian provinces (not to mention the USA) in implementing zero-tolerance laws for drinking and driving. In Ontario's case, the age limit will be 22, and the BAC limit will be 0.00%. It is a traffic infraction rather than a criminal offense. The penalty will be an automatic 24-hour roadside suspension of one's license, plus a fine of up to $500 and a suspension of up to 30 days upon conviction. For those over 22, the limit will remain 0.05 for a traffic infraction and 0.08 for a criminal offence of DUI.
Ontario has, and will retain, a drinking age of 19. In Canada, the drinking age is 18 or 19 depending on the province. Thus in Ontario, one can drive at 16, drink at 19, but will not be allowed to mix the two until 22 or until one has had a license for at least two years, whichever is longer.
We at Twenty-One Debunked, who unequivocally abhor drunk driving but believe the drinking age should be 18 and not a day later, have mixed feelings about the new law. On the positive side, though it may or may not actually save lives, it does send a strong message that drinking and driving simply do not mix. It provides a reason (or even an excuse) for young drivers to refuse a drink from their buddies at a bar or party without looking or feeling awkward. It also helps to appease the fears among older adults about young people drinking and driving, and can help pre-empt more extreme measures, such as raising the drinking age. On the negative side, it still remains a form of age discrimination, regardless of how well-intentioned it is, and the unrealistically low BAC limit provides no safeguards against false positives. There is a significant margin of error of +/-0.01-0.02 in BAC readings, meaning that it is theoretically possible for someone who had nothing at all to drink can test positive and lose his or her license for up to a month.
Thus, we recommend keeping the law, but raising the BAC limit to 0.02, or at least automatically subtracting 0.01 or 0.02 from any breathalyzer reading if they still wish to retain the absolute zero limit. Also, we think all fairly novice drivers (less than 5 years of licensed driving experience) should be held to the same standard regardless of age, as is currently done in the Netherlands with a BAC of 0.02. In addition, we recommend that if there must be age limits, the drinking age should be lowered to 18, and the zero tolerance age should be 21. Finally, we must never lose sight of the fact that (in the USA) the average BAC in fatal crashes is 0.16 overall and 0.14 for drivers under 21. We need to see the forest for the trees, and focus enforcement where it matters most. For those with high BACs, regardless of age, judges need to throw the book at them before they ever kill someone.
Ontario has, and will retain, a drinking age of 19. In Canada, the drinking age is 18 or 19 depending on the province. Thus in Ontario, one can drive at 16, drink at 19, but will not be allowed to mix the two until 22 or until one has had a license for at least two years, whichever is longer.
We at Twenty-One Debunked, who unequivocally abhor drunk driving but believe the drinking age should be 18 and not a day later, have mixed feelings about the new law. On the positive side, though it may or may not actually save lives, it does send a strong message that drinking and driving simply do not mix. It provides a reason (or even an excuse) for young drivers to refuse a drink from their buddies at a bar or party without looking or feeling awkward. It also helps to appease the fears among older adults about young people drinking and driving, and can help pre-empt more extreme measures, such as raising the drinking age. On the negative side, it still remains a form of age discrimination, regardless of how well-intentioned it is, and the unrealistically low BAC limit provides no safeguards against false positives. There is a significant margin of error of +/-0.01-0.02 in BAC readings, meaning that it is theoretically possible for someone who had nothing at all to drink can test positive and lose his or her license for up to a month.
Thus, we recommend keeping the law, but raising the BAC limit to 0.02, or at least automatically subtracting 0.01 or 0.02 from any breathalyzer reading if they still wish to retain the absolute zero limit. Also, we think all fairly novice drivers (less than 5 years of licensed driving experience) should be held to the same standard regardless of age, as is currently done in the Netherlands with a BAC of 0.02. In addition, we recommend that if there must be age limits, the drinking age should be lowered to 18, and the zero tolerance age should be 21. Finally, we must never lose sight of the fact that (in the USA) the average BAC in fatal crashes is 0.16 overall and 0.14 for drivers under 21. We need to see the forest for the trees, and focus enforcement where it matters most. For those with high BACs, regardless of age, judges need to throw the book at them before they ever kill someone.
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