Yet Another Sketchy Study--DEBUNKED!

A recent study now claims that raising the drinking age to 21 saves the lives of roughly 1200 women per year who otherwise would have died of suicide or homicide, including later in life as well.  The pro-21 crowd (and the media) are really eating it up.  But is it really true, or should we be skeptical?

It turns out that there are in fact several reasons one should be skeptical of such an audacious claim.  First of all, there was no noticeable effect of the drinking age on suicide and homicide rates among the general population exposed to the law change--only when the results were separated by gender was any sort of pattern noticed, and only among women born after 1960.  The fact that men (who tend to drink more than women, and who also are more likely to kill themselves and others) were completely unaffected is very difficult to explain away assuming the effect is genuine.  Secondly, the odds ratios were fairly small, 1.12 and 1.15, and any odds ratios less than 2.0 ought to be taken with a grain of salt (if not a whole pound).  It could very likely be the result of chance, bias, or confounding factors.  Thirdly, the study only looked at where the individuals were born, not where they lived at age 18. Fourthly, comparing the USA with countries with lower drinking ages does not appear to support the claim that allowing 18-20 year olds to drink results in higher homicide and suicide rates.  For example, Canadians of both genders have lower homicide rates than Americans, and suicide rates that are intermediate between the lower 48 states and Alaska.

Unfortunately, we were unable to access the full text of the study, so we don't know what confounders (if any) the authors attempted to adjust for, except for state and birth-year fixed effects.   However, since summaries of the study say that the effect was seen in 38 out of 39 states, that implies that the 12 states that did not change the drinking age at all (remained at 21 throughout) were not included.  This is important since that would be a rudimentary way to test for secular trends, as we have done in this previous post.  So many other things have changed during that time, making it difficult to tease out the impact of the drinking age change.  And why weren't women (or men for that matter) born before 1960 affected?  This study seems to leave the reader with more questions than answers.

The true believers in the 21 drinking age will need a lot more convincing in the error of their ways, however. That's why we took the initiative and looked up the mortality data ourselves in the publicly available CDC WONDER database. And here is what we found:

Female homicides, all USA:

Female suicides, all USA:

Female homicides, "always-21" states:

Female suicides, "always-21" states:

Female homicides, "18 at some time" states

Female suicides, "18 at some time" states

The above charts look at the female homicide and suicide rates of various age cohorts (15-19, 20-24, 25-34, 35-44, and 45-54) for the years 1979-1998.  The study we are critiquing used the years 1990-2004 instead of 1979-1998, but we felt the latter would be more appropriate since a) the WONDER data are grouped into 1979-1998 and 1999-2007, each with somewhat different death codes, and b) more cohorts would be included.  Voila--there is essentially no difference in the patterns of either rate over time between the various groups of states (all states, states that were always 21, and states that were 18 at some time) despite changes in the legal drinking age.

It is really transparent and obvious why a study like this would come out now, at a time when many policymakers are seriously considering lowering the drinking age.  After the arguments about drunk driving fatalities have been debunked time and time again, it was necessary to come up with other "public health" arguments for continuing to violate the civil rights of 18-20 year old young adults.  But make no mistake--these arguments are really just a more socially acceptable way of saying that some people's rights are more important than others.  That is, the antithesis of what America supposedly stands for.

Australia Revisited

Every once in a while, it seems that a vocal minority of Australians want to raise their country's drinking age (currently 18) to 21.  Recently, this issue has been revisited due to the nation's notorious drinking problem, in a land where binge drinking is an art form among all ages.  But many Australians are not at all convinced that raising the drinking age will solve anything. 

A case in point is the New South Wales Police Commissioner, Andrew Scipione, who originally suggested that the drinking age should be raised but is now against the idea.  He knows that it would not fix anything, and that the real problems have other solutions.  For example, Professor Sandra Jones (University of Wollongong) notes that raising the prices of alcohol (i.e. through taxes and/or a price floor), reducing overall availability, and reducing advertising would all go a long way to reducing Australia's drinking problem, citing the nation's experience with cigarettes.  But more fundamentally, the problem is largely a cultural one that raising the drinking age simply won't do jack to fix.  And all they have to do to is come to America to see what we mean.

For more info about Australia's drinking age debate, see our previous post about this issue.

Still More Things Underage Drinkers Didn't Do (Part 4)

See previous posts. In the past week or so:

An underage drinker did NOT injure six innocent children at once while driving drunk.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly flip her vehicle with her 4 year old inside, fleeing the scene alone with the child still inside (while her other two kids were left home alone).

An underage drinker did NOT get in a drunken rage and rip the door off of a house and assault her boyfriend because he refused to have sex with her. (Yes, you read that correctly!)

An underage drinker did NOT go to a bar and start two separate fights--with his 9 month old baby in tow.

An underage drinking couple did NOT get sloshed at a Cleveland Browns game, get into a fight, and leave their 9 year old foster son with some strangers.

The presumably drunk homeless man who allegedly raped an elderly woman that was trying to help him was well over 21.

An underage drinker did NOT leave her 9 month old twin babies home alone in a playpen so she could go out on a drinking binge.

An underage drinker did NOT drive so wasted that he stopped at green lights and ran the red ones, and eventually killed an elderly man.

An underage drinker did NOT drive drunk and kill two pedestrians on a bridge.

And that, my friends, is just the tip of the iceberg.

Still More Things Underage Drinkers Didn't Do (Part 3)

See previous post.  In the past few weeks or so:

An underage drinker did NOT take two naked men hostage the morning after a night of forgotten drunken sexual activity "in case she was raped".

An underage drinker did NOT get sloshed and then get busted committing the apparent "crime" of "impersonating a stripper" at the local "gentleman's club".

An underage drinker did NOT get busted TWICE for DUI within a span of two days, with her kids in the car, after rear-ending another car on the road.

An underage drinker did NOT give his daughter a black eye and then drunkenly wreck his vehicle with his kids inside, abandoning it with the kids still inside, and then resist arrest when busted.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly rear-end another vehicle in his SUV while more than double the legal BAC limit, with his 5 year old son in the car with him.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly hit and injure a police bicycle officer with his van.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly crash into a police cruiser and try to drive away.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly crash into and kill two people who were riding a motorcycle--but both of the victims were under 21, and thus never got a chance to drink legally.

And that, my friends, is just the tip of the iceberg.  Funny how what people over 21 do is their own business, but whatever an 18-20 year old does is used to justify abridging the civil rights of all 12 million 18-20 year olds. Honestly, does that really make any sense?

"Liquorlining" is a Bad Idea

New research from the UK (where the drinking age is 18) shows that, as the number of off-premise alcohol outlets in an area increases, the number of people under 18 who end up in the hospital for alcohol-related reasons also increases.  This study adds to the substantial body of research in several countries (including the USA) that high outlet density increases alcohol-related problems (and crime) for all ages.  And there is really nothing at all surprising about this fact, as teen drinking behaviors closely track those of the adults in their families and communities more than anything else.

There is no sound reason to have liquor stores on every corner, and you would think that reducing outlet density (even marginally) would be a top priority at least for the more holier-than-thou members of the pro-21 crowd.  But apparently it is not, and again we are not surprised, as money is the roach of all evil and the hypocrisy of the pro-21 crowd is so thick you can cut it with a knife.

We do not have a "teen drinking problem", we have an American drinking problem which affects all ages.  And it demands real solutions based on real science, not cowardly age discrimination and scapegoating based on junk science.

More Things Underage Drinkers Didn't Do (Part 2)

See previous post.  This time, in the past few weeks or so:

An underage drinker did NOT beat his wife's head in with a rock in a drunken rage, killing her.

An underage drinker did NOT stomp his fiancee's Yorkshire terrier to death in a drunken rage.

An underage drinker did NOT get so wasted he thought it was a good idea to let his 8 year old son drive instead--but then again, at least his son was (hopefully) sober.

The cop who got a DUI while pulling a DARE trailer, of all things, was well over 21.

An underage drinker did NOT force a 40-ounce bottle of beer on her 4 year old son and give her 10 month old daughter a baby bottle that likely contained booze.

An underage drinker did NOT kill five Amish people when he drunkenly sideswiped a van.

An underage drinker did NOT get passed-out drunk in his filthy trailer while his 18 month old son (you read that right) was left outside to drink from open beer bottles scattered about on the porch.

An underage drinker did NOT cause a three-vehicle crash that sent a bus colliding into a McDonalds.

An underage drinker did NOT cause a six-car pile-up when he drunkenly crashed his semi-truck on the highway.

An underage drinker did NOT put a career Marine on life support after drunkenly crashing into him.

And that, my friends, is just the tip of the iceberg.

21 Turns 27

This past Sunday, July 17, was the 27th anniversary of the signing of the National Minimum Drinking Age Act.   This was the law that coerced states to raise the drinking age to 21 or lose 10% of their annual highway funding.  It was signed by President Reagan--so much for "states' rights" and "limited government."  Every state except Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and (until 2010) Guam had sold out and went with the flow.  We would have though for sure that the southern states would have at least threatened to secede as a result, but money is the roach of all evil.  It was upheld by the highest court in the land when some states decided to fight it, and those states eventually capitulated.   But that was not all--the precedent was set for further federal financial coercion, even when it was not directly related to the funding.  Thus, a piece of America died that day.

One can only hope this un-American law will join the "Forever 27 club."

Let America be America again, and lower the drinking age to 18.  If you're old enough to go to war, you're old enough to go to the bar.  'Nuff said.

Things Underage Drinkers Didn't Do (Part 1)

Dave Hitt has a great website, Quick Hitts, with a section titled, "Things Atheists Didn't Do."  It is a list of recent, high-profile cases of the crimes, follies, and misadventures of religious fanatics.  We at Twenty-One Debunked have decided to do something similar.  From time to time, we will post "Things Underage Drinkers Didn't Do", a (partial) list of all the high-profile drunken crimes, follies, and misadventures involving people age 21 and over during the past week or so.  Every case we list occurred in the USA or one of the few other countries where the drinking age is 21, and nearly all cases have no mention of other substances involved.  All suspects are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.

PART ONE

An underage drinker did NOT "misplace" his baby on the sidewalk after drinking.

An underage drinker did NOT get naked and take a dump in his neighbor's garage.

An underage drinker did NOT kill her teenage son in a drunk-driving crash.

An underage drinker did NOT try to kidnap two teenage girls like this creep did.

An underage drinker did NOT need to be tasered after drunkenly killing a young man and injuring another at 100 mph.

An underage drinker did NOT leave her 3 year old son alone at the pool to get beer money so she could get wasted.

An underage drinker did NOT possibly set a new record for Georgia's highest BAC level (FIVE TIMES the legal limit!) while driving with one's kids in the car in broad daylight.

An underage drinker did NOT drunkenly drive her SUV and smash into a fire station, injuring her teenage daughter who was riding with her.

An underage drinker did NOT get so incredibly wasted that he was completely oblivious that the pedestrian he hit while driving drunk (and landed inside his car) was dead.

An underage drinker did NOT kill a Red Cross volunteer in a drunk-driving crash.

An underage drinker did NOT kill his passenger when he drunkenly sideswiped a train.

The Melrose Place actress who allegedly drove drunk and killed an (almost) elderly New Jersey woman and actually had the audacity to laugh afterwards was well over 21.

Also, none of the police officers recently busted for DUI (one of which drove with his 3 year old son) were underage either.

And that, my friends, is just the tip of the iceberg.

Excellent Alternet Post about the Drinking Age

The recent post on Alternet about the drinking age is probably one of the few (if not the only) occasion the progressive alternative news site wrote an article about this issue.   It is surprising that they don't discuss it more frequently, especially given their very liberal stance on the legalization of other psychoactive substances.  It is truly refreshing to see them be in favor of liberty and justice for all, not liberty for "just us" like some so-called "progressives" and drug-law reformers.

The article, which is clearly in favor of lowering the drinking age, does almost as good a job at debunking the latest Carpenter and Dobkin study as we did back in May.  It also discusses the wisdom of Barrett Seaman, author of Binge: What Your College Student Won't Tell You and current president of Choose Responsibility.  Seaman knows what a failure the 21 drinking age has been, especially on college campuses.  In addition, the article points out just how out of step America is with the rest of the civilized world.

As for the book Binge, while we at Twenty-One Debunked agree wholeheartedly with Seaman's evaluation of the failure of the 21 drinking age and how the law appears to throw gasoline on a fire (so to speak), the author does seem to over-egg the pudding a bit on the other issues he discusses when comparing today's campus life to the way it was in the 1960s when he was in college in upstate New York.  Yes there are kernels of truth in what he says, but we hardly believe that today's students are embroiled in the kind of crisis he appears to suggest they are in.  There is definitely a nostalgia bias at work here.  And while we question whether technology really deserves much of the blame for the apparent "disconnection" he notes, we certainly agree that the 21 drinking age (which artificially and arbitrarily divides members of the college community) certainly isn't helping.

What is it about July?

July is just around the corner, and we thought you should know some interesting facts about the seventh month of the year.

• When drinking age laws have been changed in the past, July is the month in which it has historically occured the most.
• The National Minimum Drinking Age Act was signed into law on July 17, 1984.
• Wyoming, the last state to raise the drinking age to 21, signed its bill into law on July 1, 1988.
• The territory of Guam raised its drinking age from 18 to 21 on July 8, 2010, effective immediately.
• The two most dangerous days of the year in terms of traffic fatalities are July 3 and July 4, despite the fact that the most dangerous month is August.
• And of course, July 4 is Independence Day in the United States, and July 1 is Canada Day north of the border.