Do Tobacco 21 Laws Really Work?

A recent study claims that Tobacco 21 laws work to reduce teen tobacco use.  But upon closer examination, there is less here than meets the eye.  While this new nationwide study controlled for a host of other variables and spanned from 2012-2019, it still leaves the reader with more questions than answers.  

For example, the supposed effect in survey data in grades 8, 10, and 12 was statistically significant for combustible cigarettes, particularly for grade 12, but NOT for vape products at any grade level, while for the Nielsen sales data the apparent effect was much larger for vape products than combustible cigarettes.  How exactly can this glaring contradiction be explained away?  Also, no significant effect was observed on heavy smoking, which intuitively should have had the largest effect size of all due to heavy smokers facing the greatest "hassle costs" when cigarettes become even somewhat more difficult to obtain.  And even for cigarette smoking in general, the absolute difference-in-differences was a few percentage points at most, for a substance whose popularity and prevalence was already declining among all ages long before the age limit was hiked to 21 (in contrast to vaping, which increased dramatically among young people during this period).

Furthermore, the study did not look beyond the first two years post-enactment of such laws, so any observed effects may very well be merely short-term effects (cf. Miron and Tetelbaum 2009 for the 21 drinking age and alcohol-related traffic fatalities).

Interestingly, the study authors do concede that at least some of the observed effect on people under 18 is a result of increased ID checking and increased perception of risk of of tobacco products.  Of course, we know that it is not really necessary to raise the age limit higher than 18 to achieve such effects.

Overall, this nationwide Tobacco 21 study (the second of its kind) was rather less impressive that an earlier nationwide study by different authors, for reasons that are not entirely clear.  But it is very likely a repeat of what we like to call "The Incredible Shrinking Effect Size", a phenomenon that we have seen before with studies of the 21 drinking age over time.  Which means that it was most likely a statistical mirage all along, at least in the long run.

Regardless of what sort of effects, or lack thereof, that Tobacco 21 laws supposedly had, we at Twenty-One Debunked nonetheless oppose such laws on principle 100%, just like we oppose the 21 drinking age and toking age as well.  Let America be America Again!

UPDATE:  A recent pro-21 article made a Freudian slip about what happened since Texas raised their smoking age to 21 in 2019:

"Since then, the use of tobacco by teens decreased from 21.8% in 2019 to 19.1% in 2021, according to the CDC and the American Lung Association."

That is NOT a particularly large difference in teen tobacco use (which includes both smoking and vaping), especially since teen vaping had already peaked by 2019 and teen smoking had already been plummeting for decades.  Technically, the latter data were from the 2020 Texas School Survey, not 2021, and the 2019 data were from the CDC YRBS, as each survey is done only every other year.  But either way, the point still stands.  In fact, when compared to the 2018 TSS data, the 2020 TSS data are almost identical.

2023 UPDATE:  The study in question has been recently revised, but not in a way that materially alters any of the above conclusions or criticisms.  In fact, reading between the lines, not only does the results look even less consistent and statistically significant than before, but now the effect size on survey results seems to be much larger for vaping than for smoking at all grade levels, implying that some vapers have likely switched to smoking.  That makes the Tobacco 21 policy a net public health loser.

2024 UPDATE:  A 2021 study of California, one of the first two states to implement a statewide Tobacco 21 law in 2016, showed weak and unimpressive numbers in a difference-in-differences analysis.  Womp womp.

Have A Safe And Happy Memorial Day Weekend

This coming Monday, May 30, is Memorial Day, often known as the unofficial first day of summer and National BBQ Day.  But let's remember what it really is--a day to honor all of the men and women of our armed forces who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country, past and present.  And that of course includes all of those who died serving our country before they were legally old enough to drink.  Let us all take a moment of silence to honor them.

As for Candy Lightner, the ageist turncoat founder of MADD who had the chutzpah and hubris to go on national TV in 2008 and publicly insult our troops, may her name and memory be forever blotted out. 

And as always, arrive alive, don't drink and drive.  It's just not worth it, period.  And it's very simple to prevent.  If you plan to drive, don't drink, and if you plan to drink, don't drive.  It's not rocket science.   Designate a sober driver, call a cab or rideshare, crash on the couch, or even walk if you have to.  Or don't drink--nobody's got a gun to your head.

Legalization Of Cannabis For Adults, Even With Age Limit Of 18, Does NOT Significantly Increase Teen Use

Lest anyone think that the feared massive post-legalization surge in teen cannabis use somehow NOT materializing in the USA (in legalization states) was somehow due to the age limit being set at 21, a recent study found that Canada also did not see a post-legalization surge in teen use either, and their age limit was 18 in Alberta and Quebec and 19 in other provinces at the time of the study (Quebec has unfortunately since raised it to 21 as of January 1, 2020, but the study ended with the 2018-2019 school year while it was still 18).  There was no statistically significant difference between cohorts of students before and after legalization in Canada.  And while Alberta had the highest reported rate of high school cannabis use of the handful of provinces studied, both before and after national legalization in October 2018, Quebec interestingly had the lowest.  And the other two provinces studied (Ontario and British Columbia) were somewhere in between.  

Note that modest short-term increases in occasional or experimental use, by perhaps a few percentage points, are actually to be expected, if only because they will likely be more honest in surveys now.

As for the specious claim that Uruguay (age limit 18) saw an increase in teen cannabis use after legalization in 2013, that claim was based on cherry-picking two arbitrary years:  2003 and 2014, without considering more recent trends.  And even in the Netherlands, there was no increase in teen cannabis use that could be unambiguously linked to their policy of quasi-legalization for adults over 18 since 1976 (note that it was originally 16, just like the drinking and tobacco smoking age once was, in most of the country until 1996).

Point is, just like with alcohol or tobacco, teens who are inclined to use cannabis will do so whether or not it is legal or not for them (or their slightly older near-peers) to do so.  And like alcohol (but unlike tobacco), most of those who experiment with it will not become regular users, let alone problem users or addicts.  And prohibition of either for adults, including young adults, clearly does NOT stop teens from using.

Thus, there is no good reason to set the age limit any higher than 18.  Period.

UPDATE:  Looks like Uruguay actually saw a decrease in cannabis use among youth under 18 following legalization.  For 18-21 year olds, there was a modest short-term increase in 2014, followed by a decrease.  Note that Uruguay set their cannabis age limit at 18.

And back in the States, guess what?  Contrary to the doomsayers, legalization still did not cause an increase in teen cannabis use as of 2023.