Well, in the UK at least, particularly in England, according to a new report. The British currently have the second lowest smoking rate in Europe after Sweden, and only slightly higher than the USA, and rapidly falling for the past several years. And if current trends of the past five years continue, smoking rates will drop below 5% of the adult population (what researchers define as a "smoke-free" country) by 2030. Given that nearly half of British adults smoked in the early 1970s, this is no small feat.
And the real kicker? This is all happening without raising the smoking age to 21, as it is currently 18 (just like their drinking age) with no plans to hike it any further. The Tobacco 21 fever currently sweeping the USA by storm simply hasn't caught on over on the other side of the Atlantic. And unlike in the USA, there is no moral panic over vaping either. If anything, Public Health England encourages current smokers to switch to vaping to help them quit. These kinds of ageist American-style moral panics, with very few exceptions, are really quite foreign to them.
And come to think of it, after an initial boom in e-cigarettes for a few years, even vaping is now on the decline as well. It appears that's what happens when you don't turn something like that into a media circus / moral panic / deviancy amplification spiral.
It is things like this that almost make us wish that Britain, our mother country, would just revoke America's hard-won (but subsequently squandered) independence. (Tongue firmly in cheek, of course.)
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Tuesday, October 30, 2018
Saturday, October 27, 2018
Guess Who Now Openly Supports Tobacco 21 Laws? Go On, Guess...
Tobacco 21 laws, or laws that raise the age limit to buy tobacco products to 21, are unfortunately gaining popularity as a sort of "feel good" measure despite the relative dearth of evidence backing them up. Well, now we can add a new name to the list of supporters: Philip Morris Altria Group. That's right, a company whose former name is literally synonymous with Big Tobacco now supports, whether grudgingly or otherwise, a smoking age of 21 (even at the federal level) despite at least feigning opposition just a few years ago followed by awkward silence on the topic.
So why the sudden turnaround? Probably a cynical combination of public relations as well as the realization that raising the smoking age to 21 (compared to 18) in several states and localities did NOT really end up hurting their bottom lines after all. And even more cynically, they can perhaps now leverage the arguably enhanced forbidden fruit effect to their own benefit, all while patting themselves on the back for their "corporate social responsibility".
(RALPH!)
You know, kinda like they did all along (to one degree or another) when the age limit was 18, and like the alcohol industry has done with the 21 drinking age. Put up a public fight at first, take a dive, stay quiet for a few years, then publicly support the new laws while leveraging them (and simultaneously fighting against higher taxes or any new regulations). Quislings.
Thus, it is safe to say that our cynicism is now fully maxed out. And that really says something indeed.
So why the sudden turnaround? Probably a cynical combination of public relations as well as the realization that raising the smoking age to 21 (compared to 18) in several states and localities did NOT really end up hurting their bottom lines after all. And even more cynically, they can perhaps now leverage the arguably enhanced forbidden fruit effect to their own benefit, all while patting themselves on the back for their "corporate social responsibility".
(RALPH!)
You know, kinda like they did all along (to one degree or another) when the age limit was 18, and like the alcohol industry has done with the 21 drinking age. Put up a public fight at first, take a dive, stay quiet for a few years, then publicly support the new laws while leveraging them (and simultaneously fighting against higher taxes or any new regulations). Quislings.
Thus, it is safe to say that our cynicism is now fully maxed out. And that really says something indeed.
Sunday, October 21, 2018
Traffic Deaths Down So Far In 2018
There is good news on the highways lately, namely that preliminary data for the first half of 2018 show a 3.1% decrease in traffic deaths, and 2017 saw a 1.8% decrease as well following two straight years of significant increases. This is true despite the fact that the economy is still improving and there is thus more driving going on now than a few years ago.
So what happened in 2017-2018? Well, gas prices began rising again, after plummenting in 2014-2015 and reaching a low in the spring of 2016. And we know that there is an inverse correlation between gas prices and traffic fatalities. gas prices still remain well below their 2011-2014 average levels, even as some states raised their gas taxes. So that only explains part of the picture. And alcohol taxes, already historically low, have actually dropped since the Republican tax bill. So what else could it be?
The general secular trend in traffic deaths per vehicle miles traveled has been downward for decades, so this recent decrease could simply be reversion to the mean following the 2015-2016 spike in fatalities, at least in part. But the fact that so many states recently legalized cannabis from 2016-2018, and the proverbial dust has settled in the few states that had done so earlier, at the very least casts serious doubt that the previous spike in fatalities was caused by legalization, and supports the idea that legalization may have even reduced such deaths by displacing alcohol use and thus drunk driving as well.
Thus, as we have noted time and again, cannabis legalization was not a disaster after all, and seems to have been a net benefit to public health and safety overall. Next step is to legalize it at the federal level and in all 50 states and all territories as well, and also to lower the age limit to 18 like Canada now has.
So what are we waiting for?
So what happened in 2017-2018? Well, gas prices began rising again, after plummenting in 2014-2015 and reaching a low in the spring of 2016. And we know that there is an inverse correlation between gas prices and traffic fatalities. gas prices still remain well below their 2011-2014 average levels, even as some states raised their gas taxes. So that only explains part of the picture. And alcohol taxes, already historically low, have actually dropped since the Republican tax bill. So what else could it be?
The general secular trend in traffic deaths per vehicle miles traveled has been downward for decades, so this recent decrease could simply be reversion to the mean following the 2015-2016 spike in fatalities, at least in part. But the fact that so many states recently legalized cannabis from 2016-2018, and the proverbial dust has settled in the few states that had done so earlier, at the very least casts serious doubt that the previous spike in fatalities was caused by legalization, and supports the idea that legalization may have even reduced such deaths by displacing alcohol use and thus drunk driving as well.
Thus, as we have noted time and again, cannabis legalization was not a disaster after all, and seems to have been a net benefit to public health and safety overall. Next step is to legalize it at the federal level and in all 50 states and all territories as well, and also to lower the age limit to 18 like Canada now has.
So what are we waiting for?
If You Can't Beat 'Em, Join 'Em
That is what at least some segments of the alcohol industry increasingly feel about cannabis as it becomes more and more mainstream. For decades, much of the industry has generally opposed cannabis, and legalization at first seemed to be taking a bite out of the demand for booze. But now, they are catching on and want a piece of the action now, knowing what an unstoppable juggernaut that legalized cannabis has become. And this is just the beginning.
Among Millennials, alcohol is retreating while cannabis is advancing, a trend that shows no signs of stopping anytime soon. Thus, some alcohol companies, particularly the craft brewer Lagunitas (itself owned by the Dutch multinational beer company Heineken) are now starting to market cannabis-infused beverages in California and other states where recreational cannabis is legal. Meanwhile, the more conservative segments of the alcohol industry, who are loath to associate themselves with something as controversial as cannabis, are likely going to be left behind as a result.
UPDATE: As of October 2018, it also appears that after sitting on the sidelines for years now, Big Tobacco giant Altria Group (formerly known as Philip Morris) is considering a stake in Aphria, a Canadian cannabis company. We strongly urge the cannabis industry to refrain from making such a Faustian bargain.
Among Millennials, alcohol is retreating while cannabis is advancing, a trend that shows no signs of stopping anytime soon. Thus, some alcohol companies, particularly the craft brewer Lagunitas (itself owned by the Dutch multinational beer company Heineken) are now starting to market cannabis-infused beverages in California and other states where recreational cannabis is legal. Meanwhile, the more conservative segments of the alcohol industry, who are loath to associate themselves with something as controversial as cannabis, are likely going to be left behind as a result.
UPDATE: As of October 2018, it also appears that after sitting on the sidelines for years now, Big Tobacco giant Altria Group (formerly known as Philip Morris) is considering a stake in Aphria, a Canadian cannabis company. We strongly urge the cannabis industry to refrain from making such a Faustian bargain.
Friday, October 19, 2018
Latest Teen Brain and Cannabis Study More Smoke than Fire
The scary-sounding headline from a few weeks ago in USA Today reads, "Marijuana caused more damage to teens' brains than alcohol, study finds". Yes, there was a study that claimed to find such results, but there is less here than meets the eye.
In other words, there's more smoke than fire.
The actual study itself is predictably behind a paywall, and we will not dignify such questionable research by paying for it, so we couldn't find the actual numbers and thus could not quantify any effect sizes or how long the reported effects lasted, but the abstract and several news articles summarize qualitatively the main findings. The study, which involved nearly 4000 students from 7th through 10th grades in the greater Montreal area, longitudinally following them for those four years, asking questions about both alcohol and cannanis use and giving tests on memory and response inhibition. Statistically significant correlations were noted between increased cannabis use and reduced performance on such tests, while interestingly for alcohol such correlations failed to reach statistical significance.
Again, no information about the size of such reported effects, and guess what? SIZE MATTERS. And so does duration. Also, it say nothing about any such correlations beyond 10th grade, nor clearly distinguish between lighter and heavier use. (The article did note that there were many more daily users of cannabis than alcohol, despite the fact that there were many more drinkers than tokers overall the sample.) And it is very curious that the typically pro-21 mainstream scientific community are so willing to practically exonerate alcohol in such a study of teens--or perhaps they are simply alcohol supremacists. And while the sample size and longitudinal nature of this study puts it head and shoulders about most other studies on the matter, given the aforementioned concerns it should still be viewed with caution in terms of causation.
Additionally, the study seems to be silent on the real "dark horse of drugs"--tobacco/nicotine. Nicotine is a known neurotoxin, particularly during early adolescence, and is far more correlated with cannabis than alcohol use. Thus, at least some of the reported effects in the study could in fact be due to tobacco, and/or perhaps other substances as well.
Keep in mind that the infamous 2012 study that reportedly found persistently reduced IQs among adults who used cannabis before age 18, was debunked by 2014 study that found no correlation between adolescent cannabis use and IQ or exam performance (though heavy use beginning before age 15 was associated with slightly poorer exam results at age 16). This latter study did control for tobacco, alcohol, and a host of other factors. So it is very likely that soon another study will come a long and refute the first study discussed in this article, or perhaps find that any such effects are limited to the heaviest users, particularly those who began before age 15 or 16. In fact, a 2018 systematic review of 69 studies of adolescent and young adult cannabis use and cognitive functioning found that reported adverse effects were much smaller in size than the prohibitionists like to claim, and generally tend to be temporary rather than permanent, even for frequent and/or heavy use. And interestingly, no correlation with age of onset, though the mean age of study participants in these 69 studies was significantly higher than in the aforementioned Montreal study.
Other studies as well cast serious doubt on the scary claims of cannabis neurotoxicity as well, and most studies find weed safer than alcohol.
So what is the best takeaway from such studies? It would seem that while occasional or moderate cannabis use is basically a non-problem, heavy and/or daily/near-daily use (unless medically necessary) should probably be avoided at any age, but particularly for people under 18 and especially under 15. And while delaying the onset of use, or at least regular use, for as long as possible is probably wise for people under 18 and especially under 15, there is no hard scientific evidence that cannabis is any more harmful at 18 than it is as 21, 25, or even 30 for that matter. Thus, there is no good reason to keep it illegal or set the age limit any higher than 18. And even for people well under 18, the criminal law is still far too harsh a tool to apply to something like this that more likely than not turns out to be a non-problem.
In other words, there's more smoke than fire.
The actual study itself is predictably behind a paywall, and we will not dignify such questionable research by paying for it, so we couldn't find the actual numbers and thus could not quantify any effect sizes or how long the reported effects lasted, but the abstract and several news articles summarize qualitatively the main findings. The study, which involved nearly 4000 students from 7th through 10th grades in the greater Montreal area, longitudinally following them for those four years, asking questions about both alcohol and cannanis use and giving tests on memory and response inhibition. Statistically significant correlations were noted between increased cannabis use and reduced performance on such tests, while interestingly for alcohol such correlations failed to reach statistical significance.
Again, no information about the size of such reported effects, and guess what? SIZE MATTERS. And so does duration. Also, it say nothing about any such correlations beyond 10th grade, nor clearly distinguish between lighter and heavier use. (The article did note that there were many more daily users of cannabis than alcohol, despite the fact that there were many more drinkers than tokers overall the sample.) And it is very curious that the typically pro-21 mainstream scientific community are so willing to practically exonerate alcohol in such a study of teens--or perhaps they are simply alcohol supremacists. And while the sample size and longitudinal nature of this study puts it head and shoulders about most other studies on the matter, given the aforementioned concerns it should still be viewed with caution in terms of causation.
Additionally, the study seems to be silent on the real "dark horse of drugs"--tobacco/nicotine. Nicotine is a known neurotoxin, particularly during early adolescence, and is far more correlated with cannabis than alcohol use. Thus, at least some of the reported effects in the study could in fact be due to tobacco, and/or perhaps other substances as well.
Keep in mind that the infamous 2012 study that reportedly found persistently reduced IQs among adults who used cannabis before age 18, was debunked by 2014 study that found no correlation between adolescent cannabis use and IQ or exam performance (though heavy use beginning before age 15 was associated with slightly poorer exam results at age 16). This latter study did control for tobacco, alcohol, and a host of other factors. So it is very likely that soon another study will come a long and refute the first study discussed in this article, or perhaps find that any such effects are limited to the heaviest users, particularly those who began before age 15 or 16. In fact, a 2018 systematic review of 69 studies of adolescent and young adult cannabis use and cognitive functioning found that reported adverse effects were much smaller in size than the prohibitionists like to claim, and generally tend to be temporary rather than permanent, even for frequent and/or heavy use. And interestingly, no correlation with age of onset, though the mean age of study participants in these 69 studies was significantly higher than in the aforementioned Montreal study.
Other studies as well cast serious doubt on the scary claims of cannabis neurotoxicity as well, and most studies find weed safer than alcohol.
So what is the best takeaway from such studies? It would seem that while occasional or moderate cannabis use is basically a non-problem, heavy and/or daily/near-daily use (unless medically necessary) should probably be avoided at any age, but particularly for people under 18 and especially under 15. And while delaying the onset of use, or at least regular use, for as long as possible is probably wise for people under 18 and especially under 15, there is no hard scientific evidence that cannabis is any more harmful at 18 than it is as 21, 25, or even 30 for that matter. Thus, there is no good reason to keep it illegal or set the age limit any higher than 18. And even for people well under 18, the criminal law is still far too harsh a tool to apply to something like this that more likely than not turns out to be a non-problem.
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
O Cannabis! Canada Fully Legalizes Weed
Well, it's official. Our friendly neighbor to the north, Canada, has now fully legalized cannabis effective today, October 17, 2018. The actual law doing so, Bill C-45, was passed a few months ago in June, but officially goes into effect today. That makes Canada the second country in the world (after Uruguay in 2014) to officially and fully legalize it nationwide.
The details vary from province to province, but cannabis is generally legal in all 13 Canadian provinces and territories now. Age limits for purchase and possession are 18 or 19 depending on the province. It will be the same as the drinking age, with the notable exception of Manitoba whose drinking age is 18 but whose toking age is 19, because reasons. Thus, Alberta and Quebec will be 18 and everywhere else will be 19. Not perfect, of course, but still WAY more progressive than the USA, in which only a fraction of the states have full legalization and all of such legalization states set the age limit at 21. You know, kinda like the ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age--which really needs to be lowered to 18 yesterday (along with the toking age as well).
Other advantages of the Canadian model of legalization include the fact that the prices/taxes of legal weed will be set low enough to undercut the black market, something that the legalization states in the USA still have yet to do. This, combined with a lower age limit than the USA, would lead to the black market collapsing much sooner. And once it is gone, it will be gone forever within a few years from now, and then prices/taxes can then be raised just high enough to discourage overconsumption without resurrecting that very same black market.
We can certainly learn a lot from our friendly neighbor to the north. So what are waiting for?
The details vary from province to province, but cannabis is generally legal in all 13 Canadian provinces and territories now. Age limits for purchase and possession are 18 or 19 depending on the province. It will be the same as the drinking age, with the notable exception of Manitoba whose drinking age is 18 but whose toking age is 19, because reasons. Thus, Alberta and Quebec will be 18 and everywhere else will be 19. Not perfect, of course, but still WAY more progressive than the USA, in which only a fraction of the states have full legalization and all of such legalization states set the age limit at 21. You know, kinda like the ageist abomination that is the 21 drinking age--which really needs to be lowered to 18 yesterday (along with the toking age as well).
Other advantages of the Canadian model of legalization include the fact that the prices/taxes of legal weed will be set low enough to undercut the black market, something that the legalization states in the USA still have yet to do. This, combined with a lower age limit than the USA, would lead to the black market collapsing much sooner. And once it is gone, it will be gone forever within a few years from now, and then prices/taxes can then be raised just high enough to discourage overconsumption without resurrecting that very same black market.
We can certainly learn a lot from our friendly neighbor to the north. So what are waiting for?
Friday, October 5, 2018
How Iceland Can Save Their Tourism Sector
A decade after their legendary financial crisis and its aftermath, it seems that Iceland is in trouble again despite their miraculous recovery. This time around, it is their tourism sector (which in fact was key to their recovery) that seems to be suffering now, cooling fast following a decade of explosive growth. Banks, of course, seem to have learned their lesson after the banksters that caused the crisis were jailed rather than bailed out like in the USA.
The reasons for the decline in tourism are not entirely clear, but since tourism is such a large chunk of Iceland's economy, a large and sustained decline has the potential to be a serious problem in the long run. So it would really behoove them to face this problem head-on before things deteriorate any further.
Two things immediately come to mind as potential solutions to reverse or at least slow the decline in tourism: 1) lower the drinking age to 18 (it is currently 20), and 2) abolish their youth curfew law, or at least stop enforcing it. And 3) legalize weed as well for everyone over 18. Problem solved. Next.
As for their alcohol tax, since they have the most expensive alcohol in the world (at least double the price it is in the USA), they might want to cut it a bit for on-premise sales while perhaps hiking it for off-premise sales, as they are way on the "wrong" side of the Laffer curve, and are very prone to "pregaming" before going out to the bar. Of course, cutting the alcohol tax too much would lead to adverse effects from an increase in excessive drinking (just look at the USA, for example), but there does seem to be such a thing as too high--and they are already there now.
Skal!
The reasons for the decline in tourism are not entirely clear, but since tourism is such a large chunk of Iceland's economy, a large and sustained decline has the potential to be a serious problem in the long run. So it would really behoove them to face this problem head-on before things deteriorate any further.
Two things immediately come to mind as potential solutions to reverse or at least slow the decline in tourism: 1) lower the drinking age to 18 (it is currently 20), and 2) abolish their youth curfew law, or at least stop enforcing it. And 3) legalize weed as well for everyone over 18. Problem solved. Next.
As for their alcohol tax, since they have the most expensive alcohol in the world (at least double the price it is in the USA), they might want to cut it a bit for on-premise sales while perhaps hiking it for off-premise sales, as they are way on the "wrong" side of the Laffer curve, and are very prone to "pregaming" before going out to the bar. Of course, cutting the alcohol tax too much would lead to adverse effects from an increase in excessive drinking (just look at the USA, for example), but there does seem to be such a thing as too high--and they are already there now.
Skal!